tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35908802788641994772024-03-15T02:38:33.081-07:00The Internet in CubaApplications, implications and technologyLarry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.comBlogger353125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-31208305928988940022023-01-20T16:18:00.004-08:002023-02-07T10:22:27.608-08:00Cuban undersea cable politics<p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Note: This was posted at the time the cable installation began on my general Internet blog, It is belatedly published here.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Larry</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">-----</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Undersea cables between the U. S. and Cuba have long been intertwined with politics. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 1887, T</span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1867/09/18/archives/west-indies-miscellaneous-intelligence-from-cuba-martinique-and.html" style="font-family: inherit;">he New York Times reported</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> on the inauguration of a cable in support of the Cuban insurgents fighting for independence from Spain -- a precursor to the Spanish-American war. <a href="https://www.ascecuba.org/asce_proceedings/cuban-telecommunication-infrastructure-and-investment/">Phone service between the U.S. and Cuba began in 1921</a> with AT&T's installation of an undersea cable and AT&T dominated international telephony to Cuba until the 1990s.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 1994, <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/drafts/DRU1330-1.html">WilTe1 applied for permission</a> to construct a 210-kilometer, 2.5-gigabit fiber optic cable that would have had roughly 41 times the then-authorized capacity, but they never received approval for an Internet cable.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 1966 Sprint established a wireless link from Florida to Cuba, providing Cuba with </span><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/02/cubas-first-internet-connection.html" style="font-family: inherit;">its first Internet connection</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> with funds from the U. S. National Science Foundation </span><a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/236156.240575" style="font-family: inherit;">International Connections Program</a><span style="font-family: inherit;">. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><span>When President Obama relaxed relations with Cuba, <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Daniel Sepulveda, who led two U. S. government delegations to Cuba, </span><span style="color: #222222;">said <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/01/a-second-high-level-us-delegation-to.html">there were at least a half-dozen proposals</a> — from U. S. and non-U. S. companies — to construct an undersea cable between the US and Cuba. The most promising proposal was for a 5</span><span style="text-align: justify;">6-kilometer link between the existing <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/arcos">ARCOS cable</a>, which connects to southern Florida, and Cuba. The proposal was submitted in August 2018 and the FCC deemed it acceptable for expedited 45-day processing, but nothing happened until Trump established a committee to consider the security risks of the cable. This month the committee </span><span style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/12/justice-department-recommends-that-fcc.html">advised the FCC to deny the politically hot proposal</a>. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="text-align: justify;">Within a week, </span><span style="text-align: justify;">ETECSA, Cuba's state-owned telecommunication monopoly, and the French telecommunication company Orange announced an agreement to construct a 2,470-kilometer cable connecting Cuba and the Caribbean Island of Martinique. </span><span style="text-align: justify;">At <a href="http://www.cubanews.acn.cu/cuba/19751-technical-works-get-underway-to-connect-cuba-to-underwater-cable">the announcement ceremony</a> officials of ETECSA and Orange said </span><span style="text-align: justify;">technical work had already begun and </span><span style="text-align: justify;">the <a href="https://t.co/UVy6tjbKp6">permits for the cable</a> had been granted. This was clearly planned in advance and the announcement was triggered by the decision on the ARCOS cable. (I wonder if the topic came up when <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/01/1140163806/biden-rolls-out-the-red-carpet-for-french-president-macrons-state-visit">President Biden and Prime Minister Macron met</a> recently).</span></span></p><span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7vf6x7I6WRtqwYoDITuDsnOS9OglAME-zRNCvG73mZ5DNY1gIEETeZKJ-hlLJmGWytyb994X_1g_b0JCoMz_LoUsBGYdL_dpWGFXKDAuoRFwl45Pt66TNh1O5P-LERZl2Cw2OtVoypEefkVksaVbBCRi08nVVqhy6lJPo5Vjx32F3bUS_ZcithV_ajA/s1561/CubaThreeCables.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1456" data-original-width="1561" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7vf6x7I6WRtqwYoDITuDsnOS9OglAME-zRNCvG73mZ5DNY1gIEETeZKJ-hlLJmGWytyb994X_1g_b0JCoMz_LoUsBGYdL_dpWGFXKDAuoRFwl45Pt66TNh1O5P-LERZl2Cw2OtVoypEefkVksaVbBCRi08nVVqhy6lJPo5Vjx32F3bUS_ZcithV_ajA/s320/CubaThreeCables.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>As shown here, Cuba currently has undersea cable connections to Venezuela and Jamaica (red) and a U. S. owned cable (green) between<a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/02/guantanamo-is-in-news-but-not-undersea.html"> Guantanamo and Florida</a>. (There has been discussion of giving the Cable to Cuba someday). </span><div><span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: justify;">The new <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/arimao">Arimao cable</a> will run from Schoelcher, Martinique to Arimao Beach in the Cienfuegos Province on Cuba's south coast and</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> will connect to Havana and other Cuban locations over the domestic backbone. They have already <a href="https://twitter.com/philBE2/status/1603439386980499457">begun laying the cable</a>, which will take around three weeks and it is expected to be ready for service in 2023. Its capacity is listed as "unknown."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Arimao cable will improve service and resilience in Cuba, but approving the ARCOS cable would have been a better solution for the following reasons:</span></div><div><ul><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">It would have improved the standing of the U. S. in the region and the world. </span>The UN General Assembly has voted on a resolution calling for the end of the U. S. embargo on Cuba every year since 1992 (except in 2020 due to COVID). This year <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094612">184 nations voted for the resolution</a>, Colombia, Ukraine, and Brazil abstained and only the U. S. and Israel voted <i>no</i>.</li><li>The 56-kilometer ARCOS cable would have been cheaper and a little faster than the 2,470-kilometer cable. (I do not know how the cable is being financed, but ETECSA and Orange are listed as owners).</li><li>The cable would already be in service.</li><li>The cable would have landed on the north side of the island at Cojimar, a district of Havana, the source and destination of heavy traffic, lightening the load on the Cuban backbone and improving latency.</li><li>It may have improved U. S.-Cuba relations.</li></ul><div>In my opinion, this was a lost opportunity.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 12/18/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez tweeted the following after the Cuba-Martinique undersea cable was announced:<div><blockquote>Establishing a submarine cable connection between Florida and Cuba would be a positive step for both countries and would expand Internet access for Cubans. Denying it contradicts the position declared by the US government in May 2022. <a href="https://twitter.com/BrunoRguezP/status/1603432769681608704">(original in Spanish)</a></blockquote></div><div>Why did he post that at this time? Was it to make it clear that the U. S., not Cuba, had stopped the ALBA cable link? What impact would a third international link have?</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 2/7/2923</b></div><div><br /></div><div>ETECSA president <a href="https://havanatimes.org/cuba/cuba-hopes-to-activate-a-new-cable-from-martinique-in-april/">Tania Velázquez Rodríguez said</a> the current ALBA-1 cable is saturated and the new Arimao cable has a tentative go-live date of next April. <a href="https://twitter.com/philBE2/status/1622647100474261510">Experts on Twitter</a> doubt that the cable will be ready for service that soon. The expected capacity of the cable is unknown, but if the ALBA-1 cable is saturated, it should improve Cuban international access.</div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-22165196189754678862021-09-03T15:48:00.004-07:002022-02-13T20:48:03.161-08:00The long-run effect of Cuba's recent Internet-augmented protests<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i>Neither tweets and Facebook video clips nor the repetition of tired slogans from Granma are likely to convince many Cubans to change their minds.</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's now more than 6 weeks since the Cuban political protests and accompanying Internet service disruption. Will they lead to a long-run change in the Cuban Internet or the Cuban political situation?</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's start with the Cuban Internet. Many of the Internet changes during the protests have disappeared. Total daily traffic, the ratios of mobile to fixed traffic, and human to automated posts, and the proportion of blocked Signal sessions <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-internet-during-anti-government.html">are about what they were</a> before the protests.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But everything is not the same. Before the protests, tech-savvy Cubans had been using the Psiphon VPN service to access content the Cuban government blocked. In the ten days leading up to the protests, Psiphon averaged 17,285 unique daily users. During the protests, daily users peaked at 1.425 million on July 16, then began to taper off. However, it did not return to the pre-protest level. For the 13 days shown here, the average was 109,429 unique users per day, over six times the number during the runup to the protests.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fI89K1sxqWI/YSZUb78G1MI/AAAAAAACKPU/TbBGsXIvOZoqJUo_qhVz3pJVhmWVsxSJACNcBGAsYHQ/s1149/PrptestsBeforeAndAfter.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1149" data-original-width="1135" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fI89K1sxqWI/YSZUb78G1MI/AAAAAAACKPU/TbBGsXIvOZoqJUo_qhVz3pJVhmWVsxSJACNcBGAsYHQ/w395-h400/PrptestsBeforeAndAfter.png" width="395" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UPVCKeKMZWg/YTEufGOIeII/AAAAAAACKVU/1glhpsGsJ6IgM6Nnt0Slj9Uugxp7zi8bgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1202/PsiphoneEfficiency.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1202" data-original-width="522" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UPVCKeKMZWg/YTEufGOIeII/AAAAAAACKVU/1glhpsGsJ6IgM6Nnt0Slj9Uugxp7zi8bgCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/PsiphoneEfficiency.png" width="139" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Speed measured at the<br />University of Havana</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: inherit;">Keith McManamen from Psiphon said that <span face=""Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;">this kind of retention -- 5x-10x baseline -- is typical of their experience in other nations and that Cuban usage intensity -- bytes/unique user/day and sessions/user/day -- has returned to pre-protest levels. Since Psyphon access is slow and Internet access is expensive in Cuba, roughly 90,000 new users must be motivated.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;"><p>Another Internet discontinuity is the existence and continued growth of a crowd-sourced <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1AQAArlWutvq3eqA2nK_WObSujttknlxZ&ll=21.66153107712415%2C-80.20082207193147&z=7" style="background-color: transparent;">archive of images and videos of the protests</a><span style="color: #201f1e;">. There were 219 documented protests as of August 6 and today there are 281. This archive may inspire future discontent or it may be used to identify and prosecute protest participants. Regardless, it will be available to historians and political scientists -- either at its present URL or, if it's deleted, on the Internet Archive. (As an aside, the first such historical protest archive that I know of contains </span><a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2011/01/before-twitter-revolutions-there-was.html" style="background-color: transparent;">all of the Usenet traffic</a><span style="color: #201f1e;"> during the protests against the 1991 Soviet Coup attempt and it is still available online).</span></p></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;"><p></p></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #201f1e;">There is also speculation that the protests triggered or accelerated the new Internet regulation, announced on August 17th. The regulation <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/08/25/cuba-telecommunications-decree-curtails-free-speech#">treats online content as a potential security threat</a> and bans </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;">“spreading fake news,” “slander that impacts the prestige of the country,” “inciting protests,” “promoting social indiscipline,” and undermining someone’s fame or self-esteem.” The government has also set up a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/technology-joe-biden-business-caribbean-social-media-ba1c45c6bb2bf67c2723748aa7b2620e">Web site for citizens to report violations</a> -- crowd-sourcing 1984.<p></p></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;">Cuba has had previous protests, but the prolonged, nationwide protests that began on July 11th were a product of </span><i>mobile</i> Internet access<span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;">, which began rolling out in 2018. The protests led to the changes to the Internet mentioned above, but will the Internet be the cause of long-run political or social change? </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #201f1e;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">I suspect not.</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #201f1e;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #201f1e;"><span style="background-color: white;"><a href="https://radar.cloudflare.com/cu?date_filter=last_30_days">Cloudflare reports</a> that during the last 30 days, 70% of Cuban traffic was from mobile phones and 30% from fixed desktops, as it was before the protests. Furthermore, the majority of the fixed traffic is from workplaces where access is controlled and easily <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: 107%;">surveilled</span>. Therefore, most political traffic is to and from mobile phones, which means posts are short and divisive -- government supporters are talking to and reinforcing the beliefs of other government supporters and the same goes for the protesters. (</span></span><span style="color: #201f1e;"><span style="background-color: white;">There are many beneficial Internet applications i</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;">n business, science, health care, education, entertainment, etc., but they <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/president-diaz-canel-internet-is-more.html">generally depend upon the fixed Internet</a>).</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #201f1e;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I don't know what percent of Cubans support or oppose the government, but neither tweets and Facebook video clips nor the repetition of tired slogans from Granma are likely to convince many Cubans to change their minds. Reasoned, long-form argument on the fixed Internet might be a little more persuasive, but things like money, power, organization, demographics, negotiation and compromise and exogenous factors like climate change, COVID, or political and economic decisions made in China will determine Cuba's political and economic future, not the mobile Internet.</span></div></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-84671980604912636432021-08-08T05:59:00.017-07:002021-08-20T07:27:14.283-07:00SpaceX Starlink comes to South America<i>This one-year pilot study in rural Chile will be productive and successful.</i><div><i><br /></i><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEokKisL2aU/YQ9kkB-KWNI/AAAAAAACJ4s/zG_Lm42Rg10G5PxEopS-fWPvsCj2lowowCNcBGAsYHQ/s660/DishyChile.png" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="660" height="133" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEokKisL2aU/YQ9kkB-KWNI/AAAAAAACJ4s/zG_Lm42Rg10G5PxEopS-fWPvsCj2lowowCNcBGAsYHQ/w200-h133/DishyChile.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Starlink antenna on the roof of the<br />John F. Kennedy school</td></tr></tbody></table>SpaceX has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/spacex-starlink-satellite-internet-has-about-90000-users.html">roughly 90,000</a> Starlink beta test customers in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand and now <a href="https://www.subtel.gob.cl/gobierno-da-marcha-a-servicios-de-starlink-en-chile-sotomo-se-convierte-en-el-primer-lugar-de-latinoamerica-con-internet-satelital-de-alta-velocidad/">they have one in South America</a> -- in Sotomó, an isolated town at 41.6° South in Chile's Lake Region. Chile's second terminal will be online at a school in Caleta Sierra in a few days and other pilot locations will follow. <div><p>Twenty families live in Sotomó and it is only accessible by private boats or subsidized services that navigate the Reloncaví Estuary on which it is located. The town has electricity about 12 hours a day thanks to a diesel generator installed by the Lake Region government in 2019. </p><p>Javier de la Barra, the teacher in charge of the seven-student John F. Kennedy school where the terminal has been installed, said the service will be available to community members as well as students. Tablets are being provided for the students and he expects Internet connectivity will enrichen and improve the curriculum and student experience and, perhaps more important, he expects that it will improve his ability as an educator.
</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gDNvkGLKjR8/YRBAdR6Eu6I/AAAAAAACJ5g/KrrL1Hx8OZ8k_m39feKnyn_7_6aMw62RACNcBGAsYHQ/s680/SotomoSchool.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="680" height="150" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gDNvkGLKjR8/YRBAdR6Eu6I/AAAAAAACJ5g/KrrL1Hx8OZ8k_m39feKnyn_7_6aMw62RACNcBGAsYHQ/w200-h150/SotomoSchool.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Inside the John F. Kennedy school in Sotomó</td></tr></tbody></table>My first reaction was that that sounds like a lot to expect from a single 1-200 Mbps Internet connection, but then I remembered that this is a school with seven students and a teacher who is motivated to improve his ability as an educator. Add a local-area network with a server for downloaded <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-khan-academy-on-internet-or-lan.html">courseware like that of the Khan Academy</a> or other teaching material and provide technical and pedagogic support and this sounds like a promising pilot project. It will be most interesting to see what sort of procedures, software, and curricular innovation is developed around a single link to the Internet and if it is replicated, by the online community of educators like Javier de la Barra.<p></p><p>Furthermore, speed and latency will improve with time as SpaceX upgrades its software and, in the long run, the satellite constellation. My guess is that the first equipment upgrade will be a new generator or larger diesel fuel tank so they can be online, perhaps downloading content, more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>It will also be interesting to hear how the community members use their access. I don't know anything about the Sotomó economy so can't speculate on business applications, but there is at least one tourism business, <a href="https://termasdesotomo.cl/index.php?app=termas">Termas de Sotomó</a> (Sotomó Hot Springs), which already has a Web site. (Perhaps it uses a geosynchronous satellite ISP). In addition to business applications, I'll bet a lot of movies and other entertainment content will be downloaded and a thriving sneaker net -- sharing files on flash drives -- will evolve. How long will it be before someone develops a system that takes requests for unattended downloads? (For an idea of the breadth of material that can circulate on a sneakernet, see this look at the contents of <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/05/inside-edition-of-el-paquete.html">one week of Cuba's "weekly package"</a>).</p><p>In the early days of the Internet, my colleagues and I <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/286238.286242">studied its diffusion and application in developing nations</a>, including Chile. Sotomó and other pilots present us with a fresh opportunity to study the applications and social and individual impact of today's Internet on a new, "greenfield" community.</p><p>At the time of our early studies, <a href="http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/articles/commerc.htm">Chile was arguably the most advanced</a> networking nation in Latin America and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Latin_American_and_Caribbean_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)">Chile's GDP per capita</a> is second only to Uraguay in South America and 50% greater than that of third-place Argentina. Furthermore, the government and telecommunications industry <a href="https://www.subtel.gob.cl/gobierno-e-industria-de-las-telecomunicaciones-anuncian-acuerdo-nacional-para-reducir-la-brecha-digital/">recognize Chile's significant digital divide</a> and are committed to rectifying it. (This was not lost on SpaceX -- they established a <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/jdgxto/spacex_reveals_all_foreign_affiliate_companies/">Chilean foreign affiliate entity</a> in July 2019). Given that background, I would not be surprised to see SpaceX Starlink become part of Chile's future rural connectivity infrastructure.</p><p>The opening ceremony for the Sotomó project was attended by the Chilean Minister of Transport and Telecommunications, Gloria Hutt, who said:</p><blockquote>The arrival of Starlink in Sotomó marks a before-and-after in terms of digital inclusion for our country. This revolutionary technology will allow us to bring high-speed connection to the most extreme points of our immense and varied geography, democratizing internet access and all the benefits it brings in favor of multiple areas of our lives.</blockquote>That statement is reminiscent of the rosy vision that many, including me, had in the early, academic years of the Internet, but we were naive. We have since learned that the Internet enables Nigerian princes, fake news, filter bubbles, etc. along with the good stuff.<div><br /><div><div>Chilean prosperity, combined with economic inequality (<a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gini-coefficient-by-country">the Chilean Gini coefficient is fourth highest</a> in South America), has led to violent protests and deep political division. Chile should heed the experience of the United States and other nations and be aware of the social and political risks that may attend enhanced rural connectivity.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>I don't want to end on a negative note. As Minister Hutt pointed out, rural connectivity and reduction of the digital divide, will in itself diminish the economic and cultural inequality at the heart of Chilean unrest.</div>
<p>
<b>Update 8/11/2021</b>
</p><p>
I spoke with someone from Sotomó today and learned that there is also a clinic in the school building -- paving the way for medical information retrieval, remote medical consultation and telemedicine. </p><p><b>Update 8/20/2021</b></p><p>For a lightly edited machine translation of this post into Spanish, <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/13wItR25bVs7f7p8d3xoszomP4YfXLhPA/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114528586908817727732&rtpof=true&sd=true">click here</a>. </p><p></p></div></div></div> Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-76883444289968755982021-08-05T06:32:00.005-07:002022-02-13T20:52:16.220-08:00The Cuban Internet in the aftermath of the anti-government protests<p><i>Before the protests, around 18 thousand Cubans used the Psiphon VPN per day. Now its holding steady at around 166 thousand per day.</i></p><p>In <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-internet-during-anti-government.html">an earlier post</a>, I looked at the use of the Internet by anti-government protesters last month and the government's attempt to block them. Now, a few weeks later, let's see how the Internet changed after my July 18 post.</p><p>The protesters used messaging and social media services, which the government tried to block, and posted images and videos of protests around the island. The following is a snapshot of an interactive, crowd-sourced map showing the locations of the demonstrations (200 on the 11th, 11 on the 12th, 5 on the 13th, and 3 on the 17th). There are now 219 documented protests and you <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1AQAArlWutvq3eqA2nK_WObSujttknlxZ&ll=21.66153107712415%2C-80.20082207193147&z=7">can see images and videos</a> by clicking on the locations</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YVZxIFvGl2s/YQqe6RjGwzI/AAAAAAACJqI/2PlWXABvwVQEEuDZ2SFGtNrqbdtBlMREACNcBGAsYHQ/s1567/CubaProtestsAfter.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="641" data-original-width="1567" height="164" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YVZxIFvGl2s/YQqe6RjGwzI/AAAAAAACJqI/2PlWXABvwVQEEuDZ2SFGtNrqbdtBlMREACNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h164/CubaProtestsAfter.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--CNQ_EOOvLY/YQqq8TVY_zI/AAAAAAACJqQ/g2y78FfFYPIbeYdw4SJKuGeaTD9XYuaawCNcBGAsYHQ/s528/SignalAnomolies2.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="342" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--CNQ_EOOvLY/YQqq8TVY_zI/AAAAAAACJqQ/g2y78FfFYPIbeYdw4SJKuGeaTD9XYuaawCNcBGAsYHQ/w206-h320/SignalAnomolies2.png" width="206" /></a></div>The governmenet began blocking access to Web sites and messaging and social media services the evening of the 11th. For example, in my previous post, I noted that <a href="https://ooni.org/">OONI</a>, an Internet monitoring organization, reported that the encrypted messaging service, Signal, was blocked at 2:41 AM UTC on July 12th but drilling down on OONI data, we see that the blocking is sporadic, not constant and that must frustrate and discourage users.<p></p><p>As shown here, OONI reported that Signal was heavily blocked during the days of the protests, but no tests were blocked on July 19-21 from the 13th through the 28th.</p><p>OONI test results are reported when someone runs a query using the OONI probe application. Some of the variation in results is probably due to tests being run from different locations since, for privacy protection, they do not geo-locate within a nation.</p><p>My biggest surprise while looking through OONI data was to discover that the Website of the anti-regime <a href="http://canf.org">Cuban American National Foundation</a> was accessible on July 26th at 19:24 UTC and July 27th at 15:43 UTC. Can anyone offer an explanation for that?</p><p><a href="https://radar.cloudflare.com/cu">Cloudflare monitored the Cuban Internet</a> during the protests and noted a marked shift from mobile to desktop traffic. As shown below, that shift has largely been reversed, but a visible inspection of the plots indicates that mobile traffic has not completely recovered to pre-protest levels. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SPzF_I68GuI/YQsDZIM2xII/AAAAAAACJqs/vVa4vdxVWIcNEK2oUVcMVD0ON9La-4OywCNcBGAsYHQ/s799/MobileVDesktop30D2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="799" height="243" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SPzF_I68GuI/YQsDZIM2xII/AAAAAAACJqs/vVa4vdxVWIcNEK2oUVcMVD0ON9La-4OywCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h243/MobileVDesktop30D2.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div>There was also a sharp increase in the percent of traffic written by bots rather than humans during the protest and, as shown below, humans have more than recovered.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-O6m07Pxnl7U/YQsG53P91JI/AAAAAAACJq8/G9KLryJ1pjkArDimiOWxn0GgJ7KYFAAOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s799/AutomatedTraffic30d.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="799" height="236" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-O6m07Pxnl7U/YQsG53P91JI/AAAAAAACJq8/G9KLryJ1pjkArDimiOWxn0GgJ7KYFAAOQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h236/AutomatedTraffic30d.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;">The Cuban government attributed the increase in the percent of automated traffic to the US government and Cuban mercenaries, but </span><a href="https://cazadoresdefakenews.info/soscuba-radiografia-protesta-digital-humanos/" style="text-align: left;">an analysis by Cazadores (hunters) of Fake News</a><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">does not support that assertion. They downloaded and analyzed 1,048,576 tweets with the #SOSCuba hashtag that were posted between July 10 and 12, 2021.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> Only 4.84% were "pure" tweets, 83.68% were retweets, 8.55% were replies, and 2.83% were "other." The study concluded that</span></div><div><p></p><ul><li>The contribution of bots and spam was insignificant relative to real, organic tweets from Cuban citizens on the island and supporters -- human rights defenders, journalists, bloggers, and artists -- in other nations.</li><li>The vast majority of the photos and videos that were disseminated on Twitter were authentic. </li><li>Ninety-three "highly suspicious" accounts published more than 144 tweets per day and generated 27,442 tweets, but that was only 2.66% of the total. (I looked at the most prolific, @RRetuiter, and it is apolitical random nonsense).</li></ul><div><br /></div><div>As shown below, the overall level of Cuban traffic peaked during the protests and has dropped back off, but it is still noticeably higher than before.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_QZNUCWnOxQ/YQsjMQswIcI/AAAAAAACJrI/cLktpjWaTMIhN9ePTVDeKPUHgM0VWBTjQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1058/Traffic30D2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="1058" height="173" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_QZNUCWnOxQ/YQsjMQswIcI/AAAAAAACJrI/cLktpjWaTMIhN9ePTVDeKPUHgM0VWBTjQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h173/Traffic30D2.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;">During the protest period, technically oriented Cubans used <a href="https://psiphon.ca/">the Psiphon VPN service</a> to circumvent blockage and to my mind, the most interesting post-protest result is the rate of Psiphon VPN utilization, as shown below.</span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7dO0vCk-K1o/YQtYg4bit2I/AAAAAAACJr0/JJ9ZxzciALwtVc1I5sHvz5bCyoUcFONhQCNcBGAsYHQ/s2125/PsyPhonAfter.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="2125" height="85" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7dO0vCk-K1o/YQtYg4bit2I/AAAAAAACJr0/JJ9ZxzciALwtVc1I5sHvz5bCyoUcFONhQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/PsyPhonAfter.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>Before the protests, daily usage was consistently around 18 thousand unique users per day. (It was up to around 28 thousand on the first day of the protests). There were nearly 1.4 million users during the heaviest protest day and it now appears to be holding steady at around 166 thousand. It seems that knowledge of the Psiphon VPN spread during the protest period and people learned to use it. I wonder how many Cubans downloaded the client during the protests.</p><div><p>Subsequent to the protest, <a href="https://www.cyberghostvpn.com/es_ES/">CyberGhost</a>, a Romanian VPN service, offered a free account to any Cuban users. It would be interesting to see a Cuban speed comparison between Psiphon and CyberGhost.</p><p>The bottom line is that usage patterns have shifted toward pre-protest levels, more Cubans know about VPNs and more people outside of Cuba are aware of the situation there.</p></div><p><br /></p></div><p></p><p></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-71139774372917141532021-07-29T09:53:00.005-07:002021-07-30T07:57:18.316-07:00Time for a change in our Cuban Internet strategyIn a post last week, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/president-diaz-canel-internet-is-more.html">I advised Cuban President Díaz-Canel</a> that investment in fixed broadband Internet would benefit both the Cuban people and his regime. This week, I've got advice for US President Biden -- don't try to out-pander the Republicans and call President Díaz-Canel's bluff by offering support for fixed broadband.<div><br /></div><div><b>What won't work</b><br /><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/12/cuba-protests-economic-crisis-president-miguel-diaz-canel">Claiming that the recent protests were</a> a "United States-backed, social media-driven plot to stir up public discontent and overthrow the Cuban regime," the Cuban government <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-internet-during-anti-government.html">blocked Internet access</a> on July 11th. That prompted FCC Commissioner <a href="https://twitter.com/BrendanCarrFCC/status/1415490164164644866">Brendan Carr to endorse</a> Florida's Governor <a href="https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/71421-Letter-to-POTUS.pdf">Ron DeSantis' call</a> for President Biden to "provide the necessary support for American enterprises to deliver Internet service to the Cuban people." Senator Rubio and other Republican politicians agree and Commissioner Carr assured us that "we have the technical capability to do this."
</p><p>
When asked about the technology in a <a href="https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/running-internet-to-cuba">subsequent interview,</a> Commissioner Carr reasserted his confidence that we could do it, but said he didn't "want to get too bogged down in the particulars of that because my sense is there's going to be other technologies that I'm not aware of, including from DOD or CIA, that can also help facilitate this." I'll try to keep an open mind when read about those DOD and CIA technologies but, for now, I don't see how it can be done. </p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Yt0D3wzId30/YQFi3Xc3FsI/AAAAAAACJgg/3aXXFEHp9lML7eZXgilR_Nc0a-sVRZKOACNcBGAsYHQ/s200/surfboarddish.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="132" data-original-width="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Yt0D3wzId30/YQFi3Xc3FsI/AAAAAAACJgg/3aXXFEHp9lML7eZXgilR_Nc0a-sVRZKOACNcBGAsYHQ/s0/surfboarddish.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">A Cuban agent with a seized antenna<br />disguised as a boogie board</td></tr></tbody></table>I've seen suggestions that it could be done using forthcoming low-Earth orbit satellite constellations like SpaceX Starlink, but there are problems with that. Earlier attempts to smuggle in end-user terminals by Alan Gross and others disguised as surfing equipment have failed spectacularly. (<a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/11/alan-gross-interviewed-on-sixty-minutes.html">Gross spent five years in prison</a>). Furthermore, they would have been <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/03/us-and-cuba-both-overestimate-impact-of.html">inconsequential drops-in-the bucket</a> had they succeeded. Finally, if we could get even one Starlink terminal into Cuba, would SpaceX would be willing to flaunt international law and connect to it without Cuban permission?<p></p><p>
Another "solution" is to deploy balloon-based mobile phone towers in the stratosphere, creating an alternate cell phone company that could use Cuban mobile phones. Do they have the technology to do that? How about getting SIM cards for the "US BallonNet" mobile phone company into Cuban handsets? </p><p>If they did get SIM cards to the people, what about radio interference with Cubacel's terrestrial towers? I'm not a lawyer, but transmitting without Cuban permission sounds like a violation of international law or at least custom, but that wouldn't bother Commissioner Carr because he "doesn't care." <a href="https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/running-internet-to-cuba">In a recent interview</a>, he said "The pinheads at the ITU (UN International Telecommunication Union) will likely view this as a violation of international law. So we need to stand up the support of the federal government to do this." (Ex-FCC Chairman Pai also participated in the interview).</p><p>Others have suggested that we offer support for the Psiphon VPN service. I believe we are already doing that and on July 15 <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-internet-during-anti-government.html">nearly 1.4 million Cubans used Psiphon</a>. Psiphon support <i>was </i>a good idea.</p><p>How about hotspots near the US Embassy or using wireless backhaul from offshore? How many people would a hotspot reach and how long would it take the Cuban government to arrest them?</p><p>From Eisenhower's embargo to the Bay of Pigs invasion to Trump's trade, financial, and tourism restrictions and declaring Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism, the hard-line has failed to dislodge the Cuban regime.</p><p><b>What might work</b></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rjoKCAEmp6c/YQFq8XzRQ4I/AAAAAAACJgo/idpuWeEzaNYQBJPY-IgUsCko3EEOv3MnACNcBGAsYHQ/s700/ObamaCastroBaseball.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="420" data-original-width="700" height="120" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rjoKCAEmp6c/YQFq8XzRQ4I/AAAAAAACJgo/idpuWeEzaNYQBJPY-IgUsCko3EEOv3MnACNcBGAsYHQ/w200-h120/ObamaCastroBaseball.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">President Obama spoke to the<br />Cuban people.</td></tr></tbody></table>In spite of its apparent impossibility, the call to "<a href="https://reason.com/2021/07/27/the-case-for-beaming-internet-into-cuba/">beam the Internet to the Cuban people</a>" puts President Biden in a political bind. He has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/07/22/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-measures-on-cuba/">responded by stating that</a> he is "actively collaborating with the private sector to identify creative ways to ensure the Cuban people have safe and secure access to the free flow of information on the Internet." While it may not be possible to achieve that goal using technical subterfuge, there is another possibility -- he can go over the heads of the Cuban leaders and make well-publicized offers of assistance to the Cuban people. Let me outline two such offers.</div><div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zKDZalRAkSA/YQQMfcus-vI/AAAAAAACJhk/78j6ek1tpOQWV0cjpw82YH52gJeKvCx9wCNcBGAsYHQ/s725/etecsaspacex.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="722" data-original-width="725" height="199" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zKDZalRAkSA/YQQMfcus-vI/AAAAAAACJhk/78j6ek1tpOQWV0cjpw82YH52gJeKvCx9wCNcBGAsYHQ/w200-h199/etecsaspacex.png" width="200" /></a></div>Smuggling SpaceX Starlink terminals into Cuba is a dead end, but SpaceX offering service in Cuba would be possible if both SpaceX and the Cuban government would agree to do it. I suspect that iconoclastic Elon Musk would be willing -- <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/02/spacex-starlink-and-cuba-match-made-in.html">it would be good business and good karma</a>. <p></p><p>Díaz-Canel and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/04/what-stopped-cuban-internet-in-1996-and.html">ETECSA executives</a> would be a harder sell. Diplomacy and a well-publicized offer that was visible to the Cuban people would put pressure on the Cuban regime. If the campaign succeeded and Starlink became available in Cuba, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/03/spacexs-starlink-service-in-cuba-would.html">it would benefit the people</a> and therefore, in the long run, relax the grip of the Cuban regime. </p><p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QHG81yb-rIc/YQHWapDuGfI/AAAAAAACJhA/YCdWqevFMYk9157yS7cKcfIfy-wJWc-BQCNcBGAsYHQ/s2256/cubaBackbone2.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1154" data-original-width="2256" height="103" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QHG81yb-rIc/YQHWapDuGfI/AAAAAAACJhA/YCdWqevFMYk9157yS7cKcfIfy-wJWc-BQCNcBGAsYHQ/w200-h103/cubaBackbone2.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Cuban backbone network </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div>An undersea cable connecting the US and Cuba would also improve the Cuban Internet. Today the vast majority of Cuba's international Internet traffic is carried on the ALBA-1 undersea cable at the southeast end of the island, far from Havana and other population centers to the west. There have been at least half a dozen proposals to connect Cojimar, near Havana, to Florida. Doing so would provide backup in case of a temporary problem on the ALBA-1 cable, cut average latency time on international links, and, most important, reduce the load on Cuba's terrestrial backbone, saving terrestrial infrastructure investment.</div><div><p></p><p>The most recent of these proposals was for a branch from the <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/submarine-cable/arcos">ARCOS undersea cable</a> to a landing point at Cojumar. The ARCOS consortium applied for permission on July 23, 2018, and the application was approved for "streamlined processing procedures" -- 45 days -- by the FCC. It had still not been acted upon when it was <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2020/09/what-became-of-arcos-cuban-undersea.html">withdrawn without comment</a> on October 20, 2020. </p><p>President Biden could authorize the re-activation of the ARCOS application, and, if it is no longer on the table, a suitable alternative could be found. There <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/02/guantanamo-is-in-news-but-not-undersea.html">was also talk at one time</a> of eventually turning the undersea cable running from our base at Guantánamo to Florida. That could also be done, although a cable landing near Havana would be more valuable.</p><p>One last Internet-related item. While The President lacks the authority to fire FCC commissioner Carr, he should call for his resignation. A US official advocating violation of international law is embarrassing and Putin-worthy.</p><p>Before concluding, allow me a quick digression. Improving the Internet is a long-run project, but the pandemic requires immediate action. President Biden should immediately remove any supply chain and financing barriers impeding Cuba's ability to acquire, manufacture and distribute COVID 19 vaccine and related medical equipment.<br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TtG-NRsH-Tw/YQH0eeF9bTI/AAAAAAACJhM/9fRG852pcEMbTikvhhYbqUHhawRP3jCMgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/EisenhowerSlogan.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="400" height="172" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TtG-NRsH-Tw/YQH0eeF9bTI/AAAAAAACJhM/9fRG852pcEMbTikvhhYbqUHhawRP3jCMgCNcBGAsYHQ/w200-h172/EisenhowerSlogan.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>The US has been trying to overthrow the Cuban government for over 60 years at great cost to us and the Cuban people. The hard-line strategy was initiated by President Eisenhower during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. His fear of the Soviet Union was based upon profound personal experience as the general who led the allied invasion of Europe and watched the Iron Curtain fall<p></p><p>When he ran for president, Eisenhower had two slogans -- "I like Ike" and "It's time for a change." Today, the Soviet Union has collapsed and our current global rival, China, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/does-chinas-digital-silk-road-to-latin.html">is eating our lunch in Cuba</a>. It's time for a change in our Cuba Internet strategy.</p></div><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-29270652286435615362021-07-19T15:49:00.007-07:002021-07-19T18:27:38.207-07:00President Díaz-Canel, The Cuban Internet is more than Facebook on a cell phone -- don't be afraid of it.<i>The Internet could and should be controlled and used to serve peace and development.</i><br />
Ramiro Valdés Menéndez, Cuban Minister of Informatics and Communications, 1997<p>
</p>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z01XRz4zsHc/YPXv_uQ_42I/AAAAAAACJUk/i9aV_y6u9BkPpArJ_o8zfnrBLv5NT1fbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s200/valdez.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="150" data-original-width="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z01XRz4zsHc/YPXv_uQ_42I/AAAAAAACJUk/i9aV_y6u9BkPpArJ_o8zfnrBLv5NT1fbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s0/valdez.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Ramiro Valdés Menéndez</td></tr></tbody></table>As a result of <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-internet-during-anti-government.html">Internet service interruption</a> during the recent anti-government protests in Cuba, Florida Senator Rubio and Governor DeSantis and President Biden have called for measures to strengthen and guarantee Cuban Internet connectivity, but that won't happen until the Cuban government recognizes that doing so is in its long-run interest.
<p></p><p>
I have seen several suggestions that we smuggle end-user satellite terminals from services like SpaceX Starlink into Cuba but attempts to smuggle in end-user terminals by Alan Gross and others disguised as surfing equipment have failed spectacularly. Furthermore, they would have been <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/03/us-and-cuba-both-overestimate-impact-of.html">inconsequential drops-in-the bucket</a> had they succeeded.
</p><p>
However, if the Cuban government <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/02/spacex-starlink-and-cuba-match-made-in.html">would permit it</a>, SpaceX service in Cuba <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/03/spacexs-starlink-service-in-cuba-would.html">would benefit</a> the Cuban people and, in doing so, strengthen the position of the Cuban government.
</p><p>
There have also been several proposals to provide undersea cable connectivity to Cuba. The most recent one <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2020/09/what-became-of-arcos-cuban-undersea.html">was
killed in the US</a>, but I'm confident that President Biden <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/02/a-timely-suggestion-for-president-biden.html">would
support it</a> (or another one) if the Cuban government would permit it.</p><p>
I served on the advisory subcommittees to the <a href="https://www.state.gov/cuba-internet-task-force/">Cuban Internet Task
Force</a>, and made <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/02/suggestions-for-cuba-internet-task-force.html">a number of recommendations</a> for facilitating Cuban Internet connectivity. Again,
none of these proposals would work without the support of the Cuban government.</p><p>
The Cuban government <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-internet-during-anti-government.html">was frightened</a> by the role mobile phones running communication and social media applications played in the protests, but mobile apps are one small part of the full Internet. Widespread fixed broadband connectivity via satellite and improved cable capacity would have positive effects on the economy, education, healthcare, entertainment, etc. thereby <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search?q=benefit+cuban+people">enhancing the government’s standing</a> with the
people.</p>
<p>
</p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YA5BjbP74RY/YPYDe0QoFhI/AAAAAAACJU4/a3n6S-JSxgU1LJPy1coy_9KoJz4gQ9BzACNcBGAsYHQ/s1070/fideltalk2.png" style="clear: right; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="1070" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YA5BjbP74RY/YPYDe0QoFhI/AAAAAAACJU4/a3n6S-JSxgU1LJPy1coy_9KoJz4gQ9BzACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/fideltalk2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Fidel Castro opens the Youth Computer Clubs</td></tr></tbody></table>When the Internet first came to Cuba, there was a high-level <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/02/dictators-dilemma.html">debate on its risks and rewards</a>. Ramiro Valdés Menéndez, then Minister of Informatics and Communications, is often quoted as calling the Internet "the wild stallion of the new technologies" and a potential tool for "global extermination" but he went on to say it "could and should be controlled and used to serve peace and development." Fidel Castro also <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2013/08/fidel-likes-internet-but-does-that.html">recognized the potential upside</a> of the Internet and supported the establishment of <a href="https://www.jovenclub.cu/">Youth Computer Clubs</a> throughout the nation. (They were networked using pre-Internet technology).<p>
The same debate took place in China around that time, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080328154704/http://www.isoc.org/isoc/conferences/inet/99/proceedings/3a/3a_3.htm">and they decided on a robust, but controlled Internet</a>. It would be great if the US could convince the Cubans that the Chinese and Valdés were right. If we cannot, the Chinese, with their own <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/03/guowang-starlink-will-be-chinas-global.html">satellite</a>
and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/does-chinas-digital-silk-road-to-latin.html">cable</a>
projects, may.</p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-83535452620105506712021-07-18T22:57:00.012-07:002022-02-13T20:51:11.697-08:00The Internet during the anti-government protests in CubaOn Sunday, July 11, thousands of Cubans, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/11/world/americas/cuba-crisis-protests.html">took to the streets</a> in anti-government protests triggered by COVID, the faltering economy and an overwhelmed healthcare system. In four days, at least 118 large and small protests took place across the island. The following is a snapshot of an interactive, crowd-sourced map showing the locations of the demonstrations (94 reported on the 11th, 14 on the 12th, 7 on the 13th and 3 on the 17th).
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1KcjKbboKN4/YPUZeDKS09I/AAAAAAACJSg/GYxHVeN_-BQCZDqhKYWsgKJk6HVzq7kVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1527/CubanProtestMapOnly.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="1527" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1KcjKbboKN4/YPUZeDKS09I/AAAAAAACJSg/GYxHVeN_-BQCZDqhKYWsgKJk6HVzq7kVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/CubanProtestMapOnly.png"/></a></div>
For the interactive version, many with images and videos, <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1AQAArlWutvq3eqA2nK_WObSujttknlxZ&ll=21.66153107712415%2C-80.20082207193147&z=7">click here</a>. As the images and photos show, the government responded with arrests and violence in some cases.
<p>
The government also began blocking the Internet on the evening of the 11th, as shown in <a href="https://twitter.com/DougMadory/status/1414356912410353665/photo/1">the following graph</a>, posted by Doug Madory, Director of Internet Analysis at Kentik.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xKOrlQJGjdo/YPUYC8mE3fI/AAAAAAACJSY/9n8n4wblB_gyfzhZG5nLG4Dnuz179IMtgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1695/CubaDisruption2.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1695" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xKOrlQJGjdo/YPUYC8mE3fI/AAAAAAACJSY/9n8n4wblB_gyfzhZG5nLG4Dnuz179IMtgCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/CubaDisruption2.jpg"/></a></div>
It was totally blocked for a short time, then partially blocked. Madory speculated that they may have been trying to figure out how to block certain portions of the country.
<p>
Several messaging apps were blocked during the protest period. As you see below, the encrypted messaging app, Signal, <a href="https://explorer.ooni.org/measurement/20210712T024146Z_signal_CU_27725_n1_lOjCcghOpthTWXtG">was blocked</a> at 10:41 PM on July 11 and was still down on the 17th. (UTC is four hours ahead of Cuban time). Messaging apps WhatsApp and Telegram were also blocked, but not Facebook Messenger.
</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nskIsdB_DW4/YPKB-5XkjHI/AAAAAAACJPo/9UAk794tYZYZjZvNQdvzEoo-Ko7vwIxyACNcBGAsYHQ/s2223/SignalBlocked.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="2223" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nskIsdB_DW4/YPKB-5XkjHI/AAAAAAACJPo/9UAk794tYZYZjZvNQdvzEoo-Ko7vwIxyACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/SignalBlocked.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Cloudflare was also <a href="https://radar.cloudflare.com/cu">monitoring the situation in Cuba</a> and, as shown below, there was a marked shift from mobile to desktop traffic. I read reports that mobile access had been cut off, and there are periods where 100% of traffic was from desktop users, but some mobile traffic moved during the protests.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8JDv8aWu0T0/YPKSrSqKYCI/AAAAAAACJQo/7ryscxKfvMgNxp2cXQr5vcihXizJOnrJQCNcBGAsYHQ/s898/MobVDesktop2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="898" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8JDv8aWu0T0/YPKSrSqKYCI/AAAAAAACJQo/7ryscxKfvMgNxp2cXQr5vcihXizJOnrJQCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/MobVDesktop2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Another interesting shift was in the percent of traffic written by humans to that from bots. Some of this shift may be a result of the blocking of human traffic or from increases in search engine activity. Since they report percents rather than absolute levels, it is hard to know.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PBLTGaJz3og/YPUc54VkfcI/AAAAAAACJSo/TAEke0bMUhAW8azfU6aX5eUxMoL_8Da9gCNcBGAsYHQ/s881/BotVHuman30D.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="881" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PBLTGaJz3og/YPUc54VkfcI/AAAAAAACJSo/TAEke0bMUhAW8azfU6aX5eUxMoL_8Da9gCNcBGAsYHQ/s400/BotVHuman30D.png"/></a></div>
In spite of blocking and suspension of Internet service in Cuba, there was a roughly three times increase in Cuban traffic during the protest time -- Cuba was in the news and Cubans were doing their best to communicate.
</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wI6aNon0c00/YPKOKvSIvtI/AAAAAAACJQQ/anS1a6xgX2gpU-G4Ly3thmbyAqkAbjvtACNcBGAsYHQ/s880/Traffic30D.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="398" data-original-width="880" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wI6aNon0c00/YPKOKvSIvtI/AAAAAAACJQQ/anS1a6xgX2gpU-G4Ly3thmbyAqkAbjvtACNcBGAsYHQ/s400/Traffic30D.png" width="400" /></a></div>
When blocked, many Cubans accessed the global Internet using the <a href="https://twitter.com/PsiphonInc/status/1416069807301185537">Psiphon VPN</a> service. As shown below, the number of VPN users grew steadily during the protest period and reached a peak of 1.389 million daily unique users on July 15. I bet many new people learned about VPNs and learned to use Psiphon during the days of protest.
<p>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S4VAMt8qci4/YPPPSNsdA0I/AAAAAAACJRA/PciunVcehD4nYeTdnXsgrT-H4bD8AHNbwCNcBGAsYHQ/s2133/CubaVPNactivity.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2133" height="225" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S4VAMt8qci4/YPPPSNsdA0I/AAAAAAACJRA/PciunVcehD4nYeTdnXsgrT-H4bD8AHNbwCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h225/CubaVPNactivity.jpg" width="400" /></a></p></div>
The Cuban protests and Internet shutdown attracted widespread attention and we have seen sympathy demonstrations throughtout the world -- particularly in Florida. Politicians from Florida's Governor Desantis and Senator Rubio to President Biden have spoken out in support of the Cuban people and called for some sort of technical intervention to strengthen and guarantee Cuban Interent access, but I don't see how that can happen <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/07/president-diaz-canel-internet-is-more.html">without the agreement of the Cuban government</a>.
<p>
The <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/wael_ghonim_let_s_design_social_media_that_drives_real_change?language=en">Internet-supported protests</a> in Egypt led to the downfall of a dictitorial government, but the euphoria was short lived since the protesters were polarized. Large crowds <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/17/cuba-president-slams-social-media-hatred-after-protests">took part in pro-government rallies</a> across Cuba on the 17th. Let's hope for political reform and compromise in Cuba.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-85923748972350805522021-03-22T10:19:00.003-07:002021-03-22T16:37:47.978-07:00A look at Cuba's digital revolution<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6t5FaPRntRo/YFaNJkAreFI/AAAAAAACBX4/3xZAVujZt6MPSCmkww_CCsMdf9bEwxaFgCNcBGAsYHQ/s568/HnekenBookCover.png" style="clear: right; display: block; float: right; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="568" data-original-width="377" height="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6t5FaPRntRo/YFaNJkAreFI/AAAAAAACBX4/3xZAVujZt6MPSCmkww_CCsMdf9bEwxaFgCNcBGAsYHQ/s200/HnekenBookCover.png" /></a></div>In spite of having slow, expensive, government-controlled Internet infrastructure, Cuba is undergoing what Ted Henken and Sara Garcia Santamaria refer to as a digital revolution.
<p>
The digital revolution might be said to have begun in 2007 when <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoani_S%C3%A1nchez">Yoani Sánchez</a> launched her blog "Generation Y." Internet access was difficult -- she would get illegal connectivity at tourist hotels and the blog was initially hosted in Germany. Soon, the Huffington Post began publishing her posts, and she has subsequently received many international awards, including the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ortega_y_Gasset_Awards">Ortega y Gasset Award for Digital Journalism</a> in 2008.
</p><p>
I recall reading of her teaching others to blog at her home and other blogs followed, but that was just the start of the digital revolution. Today, she publishes a daily digital newspaper <a href="https://www.14ymedio.com/etiqueta/yoani_sanchez/">14Ymedio</a> which is available in Spanish and English and there are many independent (non-government) media sites that cover fashion, sports, art, music, and technology as well as news, commentary, and current events.
</p><p>
Since Cuba had and still has very poor Internet infrastructure, one might ask how this digital content is distributed. The digital-distribution revolution began in 2008 with <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/09/el-paquete-update-cubas-largest-private.html">el Paquete Semanal</a>, the "weekly package" of digital material distributed on hard and flash drives that became a nation-wide sneakernet. El Paquete is financed by advertising and customer fees and it has been suggested that it is the nation's largest private employer. In 2015, the Government began opening <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/08/cuba-wifi-for-short-run-portable.html">public-access WiFi hotspots</a>. Cubans hackers also created local community networks which did not have a connection to the global Internet. The largest, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/data-on-snet-and-few-suggestions-for.html">Havana's SNET</a>, had an estimated <a href="https://restofworld.org/2020/the-life-and-death-of-snet-havanas-alternative-internet/">100,000 users</a> before it was <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/08/questions-raised-by-takeover-of-snet.html">taken over by the government</a>. More recently, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/12/cuba-rolls-out-3g-mobile-access.html">3G mobile service</a> was introduced and now <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/03/4g-mobile-trials-have-begun-in-cuba.html">4G is beginning to roll out</a>.
</p><p>
Cuba's independent media and ad-hoc distribution channels are a product of a culture of innovation -- from restoring old cars and <a href="http://www.rikimbili.com/">equipping bicycles with lawn-mower engines</a> to creating community networks like SNET, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/05/will-cuban-start-up-community-thrive.html">software startups</a>, and work as independent, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/05/cuentapropismo-tecnologico-en-cuba.html">self-employed programmers</a>. Necessity is the mother of invention.
</p><p>
I've been speaking of media, but Henken estimates that there is also a digitally-convened movement or protest in Cuba every two months or so. He describes several of these and their leaders in <a href="https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/commentary/fl-op-com-cuba-digital-revolution-san-isidro-20201228-4wfm5j7cm5fn5emnbxvxkbbqye-story.html">this article</a>.
</p><p>
If you are interested in more on Cuba's digital media revolution, check out <a href="https://youtu.be/15I8I8ftm6A">Henken's recent interview</a> at Tulane University. (It's over an hour-long, but he speaks clearly so you can listen at 2X speed). He talks about Cuban media and introduces a forthcoming anthology he and Santamaria edited. In his presentation, Henken discusses independent Cuban media and summarizes each chapter of the book, which will <a and="" href="https://upf.com/authorbooks.asp?lname=HENKEN&fname=TED&mname=A%2E">be available</a> from the University Press of Florida on June 1. Here is the table of contents:
</p><p>
<b>Introduction</b>
</p><p>
In Medias Res: Who Will Control Cuba’s Digital Revolution?, Ted A. Henken
</p><p>
<b>Part I. History, Media, and Technology</b>
</p><p>
1. The Past, Present, and Future of the Cuban Internet, Larry Press
</p><p>
2. Historical Itineraries and Cyclic Trajectories: Alternative Media
Communication Technologies, and Social Change in Cuba, Edel Lima Sarmiento
</p><p>
<b>Part II. Politics</b>
</p><p>
3. Information and Communication Technology, State Power, and
Civil Society: Cuban Internet Development in the Context of the
Normalization of Relations with the United States, Olga Khrustaleva
</p><p>
4. Ghost in the Machine: The Incompatibility of Cuba’s State Media
Monopoly with the Existence of Independent Digital Media and the
Democratization of Communication, Alexei Padilla Herrera and Eloy Viera Cañive
</p><p>
5. The Press Model in Cuba: Between Ideological Hegemony and the Reinvention of Civic Journalism, Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Arechavaleta
</p><p>
6. Digital Critique in Cuba, Marie Laure Geoffray
</p><p>
<b>Part III. Journalism</b>
</p><p>
7. From Generación Y to 14ymedio: Beyond the Blog on Cuba’s Digital
Frontier, Ted A. Henken
</p><p>
8. Independent Journalism in Cuba: Between Fantasy and the Ontological Rupture, Sara Garcia Santamaria
</p><p>
9. Perceptions of and Strategies for Autonomy among Journalists Working for Cuban State Media, Anne Natvig
</p><p>
10. Independent Media on the Margins: Two Cases of Journalistic
Professionalization in Cuba’s Digital Media Ecosystem, Abel Somohano Fernández and Mireya Márquez-Ramírez
</p><p>
<b>Part IV. Business and Economy</b>
</p><p>
11. Online Marketing of Touristic Cuba: Branding a “Tech-Free” Destination, Rebecca Ogden
</p><p>
12. A Una Cuba Alternativa”? Digital Millennials, Social Influencing, and Cuentapropismo in Havana, Jennifer Cearns
</p><p>
<b>Part V. Culture and Society</b>
</p><p>
13. Without Initiation Ceremonies: Cuban Literary and Cultural E-zines,
2000–2010, Walfrido Dorta
</p><p>
14. Images of Ourselves: Cuban Mediascapes and the Post-socialist “Woman of Fashion,” Paloma Duong
</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-20998952867279570602021-03-09T14:10:00.000-08:002021-03-09T14:10:33.067-08:00SpaceX's Starlink service in Cuba would benefit the Cuban people, SpaceX, and the US.SpaceX <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-opens-starlink-internet-preorders-worldwide/">has begun the process of securing licenses</a> to operate its Starlink Internet service in the Caribbean. I don't know which nations they are considering, but would advise them to seriously consider Cuba -- Starlink service in Cuba would benefit the Cuban people, SpaceX, and the US.
<p>
<b>What's in it for Cuba?</b>
</p><p>Fixed home and commercial connectivity in Cuba are limited, slow, and expensive, but they do have shared connectivity -- <a href="http://www.etecsa.cu/internet_conectividad/areas_wifi/">1,095 pubic WiFi hotspots</a> and <a href="http://www.etecsa.cu/internet_conectividad/salas_de_navegacion/">346 public access rooms</a> with a total of 1,304 computers. They <a href="https://www.cellmapper.net/networks?country=368&net=ALL">also have</a> 1,057 GSM, 2,611 UMTS, and 768 LTE cell towers.
</p><p>
I can't imagine Cuba permitting SpaceX to serve consumers, but Starlink could provide backhaul to cell towers, WiFi hotspots, and public access rooms in unserved areas. Cuban health care and education are arguably the best in the region and one can imagine every rural school and clinic connected to Starlink. Imagine providing those clinics with access to the resources at Cuba's globally-recognized health portal <a href="http://www.sld.cu/">Infomed</a>, which has been online since 1992.
</p><p>
The Cuban revolution sought to find a <a href="http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/rci/n73/n73a06.pdf">just urban/rural balance</a> and years later the Internet reflected that. I did a study of the Internet in Cuba in 1998 and observed that relative to other developing nations, the Cuban Internet was geographically dispersed. Internet connectivity was only available in the capital city in 29 of the 44 African nations with Internet connectivity, whereas Infomed had a presence in every Cuban province and Cuba's 150 (at the time) <a href="https://www.jovenclub.cu/">Youth Computer Clubs</a>, which provided computers for games and classes for young people and adults, had accounts in nearly every municipality. (The study is not cleared for publication, but I can send you a copy if you are interested). Starlink connectivity would help to achieve that sought-after just balance -- to shrink the digital divide.
<br />
</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MU3z0F49p0M/YEZO-ik9KOI/AAAAAAACA78/i2a2lLQmpjoWfiEn-cFEbRzPfsEyTaLOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1070/FidelYCC.png" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="1070" height="147" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MU3z0F49p0M/YEZO-ik9KOI/AAAAAAACA78/i2a2lLQmpjoWfiEn-cFEbRzPfsEyTaLOQCNcBGAsYHQ/w400-h147/FidelYCC.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Fidel Castro spoke at the opening of the Youth Computer Club headquarters in<br />Havana. His framed, handwritten inscription reads "I am jealous". (<a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2013/08/fidel-likes-internet-but-does-that.html">Source</a>) </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
<b>What's in it for SpaceX?</b></p>
<p>
Trained, demanding users are necessary for Internet growth, and with a population of over 11 million well-educated people -- about 25% of the Caribbean region -- Cuba has pent-up demand for Internet access. Furthermore, in spite of limited access to the global Internet, Cubans have had access to the <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/01/cubas-year-end-progress-report-emphasis.html">domestic intranet</a> at Youth Computer Clubs, school, and work and, recently, Internet access at the public access locations mentioned above.
</p><p>
Cuba also has the technical and content expertise needed to install and utilize enhanced connectivity. With little Internet connectivity, Cubans have improvised, developing
</p><p>
</p><ul>
<li>A thriving blogging community that has evolved into what Cuba-media scholar Ted Henken refers to as a "rich variety of independent digital journalism projects."
</li><li>An entrepreneurial software <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/05/will-cuban-start-up-community-thrive.html">startup community</a>.</li><li><a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/02/list-of-jobs-that-are-eligible-for-self.html">Self-employed computer programmers</a>.</li><li><a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search/label/paquete">El Paquete Semanal</a> (the weekly package), a compendium of news, entertainment, and software that has been distributed on hard and flash drives throughout the island for a decade by a well-organized, decentralized sneaker-net that is possibly the largest private employer in Cuba.
</li><li>Hacker-built community networks including <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/data-on-snet-and-few-suggestions-for.html">SNET in Havana</a> which was the world's largest community network not connected to the Internet before it was <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/08/questions-raised-by-takeover-of-snet.html">taken over by the government</a>.
</li></ul>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t2q9pAbKsw8/YEOtbNnmHvI/AAAAAAACA0M/VSNPR7nFDvEWG0FPNRIWENDGLlSVRY_nwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1489/cubangroundatations.png" style="clear: right; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1235" data-original-width="1489" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t2q9pAbKsw8/YEOtbNnmHvI/AAAAAAACA0M/VSNPR7nFDvEWG0FPNRIWENDGLlSVRY_nwCNcBGAsYHQ/s200/cubangroundatations.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Cuban ground stations could serve<br />much of the Caribbean</td></tr></tbody></table>Cuba would also be a good location for Starlink ground stations serving Caribbean nations and ships in the Caribbean sea. One could be located at the ALBA 1 undersea cable landing point at Siboney Beach at the south-east end of the island. I have also argued that <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/02/a-timely-suggestion-for-president-biden.html">there should be another one 480 miles away at Cojimar, near Havana</a>. I'm not kidding myself that anyone will pay attention to my recommendation, but someday there will be a cable landing near Havana and that would be a logical place for a second ground station. (Note that there is an existing <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/12/google-global-cache-coming-to-cuba.html">Google Global Cache site</a> in Cuba and a <a href="https://history.nasa.gov/SP-4217/ch19.htm">satellite ground station</a> in Jaruco, about 25 miles from Havana, which was the site of the original Soviet Carib 1 ground station in 1974 and is now the site of the SES O3b middle Earth orbit (MEO) ground station).
<p>
<b>What's in it for the US?</b>
</p><p>
President Biden <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/biden-slams-trump-abject-failure-venezuela-well-cuba-policies-n1239356https:/www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/biden-slams-trump-abject-failure-venezuela-well-cuba-policies-n1239356">has promised to</a> "reverse the failed Trump policies that inflicted harm on Cubans and their families” and a Starlink presence in Cuba would be a noteworthy step toward fulfilling his promise.
</p><p>
Cuba's <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/02/cubas-first-internet-connection.html">first connection to the Internet</a> was as a participant in the National Science Foundation (NSF) <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6rZuzCC_pxtbzl0ZXJvOWExSDg/view?usp=sharing">International Connectivity Program</a> (ICP), which connected research and education networks in many developing nations. The NSF provided Cuba and other nations connectivity to The US NSFNET, which was the major global backbone at the time. The link from Cuba to Florida <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/02/sprint-connected-cuba-in-1995-how-about.html">was provided by Sprint</a> and Cisco provided routers.
</p><p>
US and Cuban policy quickly closed the door on US-Cuba networking and collaboration and China filled the vacuum. Today, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/09/cuban-infrastructure-investment-china.html">Huawei is the dominant provider</a> of Internet infrastructure from the national backbone to the WiFi hotspots and even the <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/06/a-leaked-etecsa-presentation-on-home.html">central office equipment</a> used in Cuba's lame DSL home connectivity offering. They also sell phones in Cuba. If the Biden administration would cooperate and SpaceX was willing, Starlink could provide a crack in China's dominance in Cuba. If Cuba does not go with Starlink, they have a number of non-US alternatives including SES, which currently provides MEO connectivity, Telesat, and OneWeb, but the most likely provider is <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/10/a-new-chinese-broadband-satellite.html">China's GW constellation</a>.
</p><p>
</p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-g0nFgFrNKUQ/YEacQZreK0I/AAAAAAACA8Y/6cQRq419wjIc5aPErxR1ioi7B3zDUW7-QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1643/digitalsilkroad2.png" style="clear: right; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1643" height="163" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-g0nFgFrNKUQ/YEacQZreK0I/AAAAAAACA8Y/6cQRq419wjIc5aPErxR1ioi7B3zDUW7-QCNcBGAsYHQ/w320-h163/digitalsilkroad2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">DSR IT infrastructure projects as of 12/2018 (<a href="https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2019/01/china-digital-silk-road"> source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>Secretary of State Antony Blinken <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-poses-biggest-geopolitical-test-u-s-says-secretary-state-n1259489">stated recently</a> that China poses a threat to the current international order and is America's "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century." The foreign relations impact of Starlink in Cuba would be more important than opening a market for a single US company. The US embargo is unpopular in most Latin American and Caribbean nations and a Starlink presence in Cuba would improve our standing. It would also be a roadblock in the way of Chinese expansion of the "<a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/does-chinas-digital-silk-road-to-latin.html">Digital Silk Road</a>" portion of their global Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
<p>
There is a good chance that he would be turned down, but I hope Elon Musk takes a shot at offering Starlink in Cuba. Hopefully, he would have the support of the Biden administration as well as Google, a SpaceX investor that <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/03/what-might-google-do-in-cuba.html">has been persistently active in Cuba</a> since 2015. Cuba has gone its own way since 1958 and that has been good and bad, but it means that Cuba is somewhat unique and we could all benefit from improved access to Cuban art, science, medicine, music, etc. Starlink in Cuba would be a win for the world.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-91886005775921671102021-02-23T10:30:00.007-08:002021-04-05T15:46:45.122-07:00A simple suggestion for President Biden regarding the Cuban Internet<i>President Biden has a lot on his plate, but having someone pursue a Cuban undersea cable would be simple and benefit both Cuba and the US.</i>
<p>
</p><p>
</p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fm2bvMHDzAY/YDSNbCiC7YI/AAAAAAACADI/o_IrkCBjlUQMG2XxDQwJyN9I-ld-tBAggCNcBGAsYHQ/s2256/cubaBackbone2.png" style="clear: right; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1154" data-original-width="2256" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fm2bvMHDzAY/YDSNbCiC7YI/AAAAAAACADI/o_IrkCBjlUQMG2XxDQwJyN9I-ld-tBAggCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/cubaBackbone2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">The Cuban backbone (<a href="https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Technology/Pages/InteractiveTransmissionMaps.aspx">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>Last September I asked what had happened to <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2020/09/what-became-of-arcos-cuban-undersea.html">the proposal for a branch</a> connecting the ARCOS undersea cable, which has a landing point in North Miami Beach, to Cojimar, Cuba. The consortium that operates the cable had applied for permission to connect Cuba in July 2018 and the FCC granted a request for streamlined processing, which should have taken less than 45 days, but nothing happened until September 2020 when the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/nsd/committee-assessment-foreign-participation-united-states-telecommunications-services-sector">application was referred</a> to a Justice Department committee for the assessment of foreign participation in the telecommunication services sector, that Trump had established in an <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210116185347/https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-establishing-committee-assessment-foreign-participation-united-states-telecommunications-services-sector/">executive order</a> on April 4, 2020.<p>On October 26, 2020 -- shortly before the election -- the application was withdrawn without explanation. I asked the FCC officials involved why the processing had taken so long and why the application was withdrawn, but received no answer. I also filed Freedom of Information Act Requests with the FCC and Justice Department, but my questions were not answered. (Justice did not even reply).
</p><p>
But that is history -- spilled milk. During the campaign, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cuba-technology-reset-444512">President Biden said</a> he would "try to reverse the failed Trump policies that inflicted harm on Cubans and their families" and he has taken <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-02-12/biden-resume-remittances-travel-to-cuba">steps to liberalize travel and remittances</a>. He has a lot on his plate beside Cuba, but having someone pursue a Cuban undersea cable would be simple and benefit both Cuba and the US.
</p><p>
The first step would be to contact the operators of the ARCOS cable to see if they are still interested in the Cuban branch. If not, other options should be pursued. Daniel Sepulveda, who was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and U.S. Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy, in the Obama administration said there were at least a half-dozen proposals — from US and non-US companies — to construct a north-south undersea cable between the US and Cuba. There had also been discussion of one day <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/02/guantanamo-is-in-news-but-not-undersea.html">allowing Cuban access</a> to the US cable at Guantanamo, <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/submarine-cable/gtmo-1">GTMO-1</a>.</p><p>
An undersea cable to the US would be a boost to the Cuban Internet. Nearly all Cuban international traffic is carried over the ALBA-1 cable, which lands at the south-east end of the island so traffic from heavily populated areas like Havana must traverse the national backbone. An undersea cable from Cojimar, which is near Havana, would reduce latency, free backbone capacity, save capital investment and provide a backup path in case of an outage.
</p><p>
Note that even Trump would agree with this proposal. <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/10/20/2017-22928/strengthening-the-policy-of-the-united-states-toward-cuba">His policy was</a> to "amplify efforts to support the Cuban people through the expansion of internet services" and he directed government departments and agencies "to examine the technological challenges and opportunities for expanding internet access in Cuba." He also <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/01/22/2018-01038/us-department-of-state-cuba-internet-task-force-notice-of-open-meeting#:~:text=The%20Cuba%20internet%20Task%20Force%20is%20composed%20of%20U.S.%20Government,expanding%20internet%20access%20in%20Cuba">established a task force</a> "to examine technological challenges and opportunities for expanding internet access in Cuba" and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/06/trumps-cuba-policy-and-its-impact-on.html">did nothing to reverse</a> any of President Obama's Cuba telecommunication policies.</p><p>
President Biden might be concerned that such a move might be politically damaging since Cuban-American voters in Florida favored Trump in the last election, but that is not a sure thing. The 2020 Florida International University <a href="https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2020-fiu-cuba-poll.pdf">Cuba Poll showed</a> that among south Florida Cubans, young people are most liberal on issues like the embargo and all except those over 75 consider Cuba policy less important than the economy, health care, race, immigration, and China policy. Demographics and Trump's impeachments may have shifted Cuban voting patterns by 2022 or 2024.
</p><p>
Supporting an undersea cable between the US and Cuba would also enhance our reputaion in the region and encroach upon <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/09/cuban-infrastructure-investment-china.html">China's near monopoly</a> as a vendor of Cuban Internet infrastructure. It would also <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/does-chinas-digital-silk-road-to-latin.html">strengthen the US's strategic position</a> vis-a-vis China's expansion in the region.
</p><p>
President Obama <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/05/crooked-media-interviews-on-cuba.html">sought rapproachmont with Cuba</a> and several Internet-related proposals followed, but <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/06/disappointment-after-president-obamas.html">the result was disappointing</a>. Trump and Raúl Castro are now ex-presidents so the ARCOS cable may stand a chance. (It would not be unprecedented -- <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/02/cubas-first-internet-connection.html">Cuba's first connection</a> to the Internet was through the US National Science Foundation <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6rZuzCC_pxtbzl0ZXJvOWExSDg/view">International Connections Program</a> for research and university networks in developing nations).
</p><p>
<b>Update 4/5/2021</b>
</p><p>
In March 2019, Google and ETECSA <a href="https://apnews.com/article/d076fa0c68b440ada320cec8478a08dc">signed a memorandum of understanding</a> committing to cost-free interchange of traffic between their networks once Cuba was able to connect to a new undersea cable that would be laid, presumably to Miami "sometime in the future." That cable has not yet been laid and I got no answer when I asked Google what the project status was last week.
</p><p>
Google has persisted in an effort to improve Cuban Internet connectivity and access for years but the effort has yielded very little. They <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/12/google-global-cache-coming-to-cuba.html">have installed Google Global Cache</a> servers in Cuba, enabling ETECSA to serve some Google content from within its own network, and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/03/opening-of-googlekcho-tech-center-much.html">established one public WiFi hotspot</a>.
</p><p>
There were hopes for progress when President Obama visited Cuba, but the Cuban government under Raúl Castro was unwilling and Díaz-Canel was met by Trump. President Biden has a lot on his mind these days, but I hope Google is hanging in.
</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-66432390852665574042020-09-29T11:35:00.010-07:002020-11-30T14:45:54.224-08:00What became of the ARCOS undersea cable connection to Cuba?<h3 style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-weight: normal;">Will Trump kill the proposal before the election?</i></h3><div><i style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></i></div><div>
<div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FZcMRWGS-js/X2ahmI3L1oI/AAAAAAAB3wQ/o_f3CuyWSlcvT4UYzCGlFd91cKpaIpV1wCNcBGAsYHQ/s977/ARCOSCubaCable.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="781" data-original-width="977" height="154" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FZcMRWGS-js/X2ahmI3L1oI/AAAAAAAB3wQ/o_f3CuyWSlcvT4UYzCGlFd91cKpaIpV1wCNcBGAsYHQ/w200-h154/ARCOSCubaCable.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Proposed 56km link between the<br /><a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/submarine-cable/arcos">ARCOS</a> undersea Cable and Cuba</td></tr></tbody></table>Cuba's <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search/label/alba">primary connection</a> to the global Internet is through the <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/submarine-cable/alba-1">ALBA-1 undersea cable</a> linking landing points on the south-east shore of the island to Venezuela and Jamaica; however, the bulk of Cuban traffic originates in Havana which is on the north-west coast. Traffic from Havana and other cities in the west travels over a backbone to reach the cable landing points. A landing point near Havana would reduce the load on the backbone, speeding connections, providing redundancy, and saving capital investment.<p></p><p>At one time, there seemed to be bipartisan support in the US for improving Cuban Internet access. During his second term, President Obama pursued detente with Cuba and much of that effort <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search?q=obama">was focused on the role of the Internet</a> and undersea cable connectivity was part of the plan. Daniel Sepulveda, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and U.S. Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy, who led two US government delegations to Cuba during the Obama administration, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/01/a-second-high-level-us-delegation-to.html">said there were at least a half-dozen proposals</a> — from US and non-US companies — to construct a north-south undersea cable between the US and Cuba. There had even been discussion of one day <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/02/guantanamo-is-in-news-but-not-undersea.html">allowing Cuban access</a> to the US cable at Guantanamo, <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/submarine-cable/gtmo-1">GTMO-1</a>.</p><p>At first, Trump seemed to agree -- consider the following timeline:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/10/20/2017-22928/strengthening-the-policy-of-the-united-states-toward-cuba">October 20, 2017</a>, The State Department issued National Security Presidential Memorandum, NSPM-5, stating that it was our policy to "Amplify efforts to support the Cuban people through the expansion of internet services" and directing government departments and agencies "to examine the technological challenges and opportunities for expanding internet access in Cuba."</li><li><a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/01/22/2018-01038/us-department-of-state-cuba-internet-task-force-notice-of-open-meeting#:~:text=The%20Cuba%20internet%20Task%20Force%20is%20composed%20of%20U.S.%20Government,expanding%20internet%20access%20in%20Cuba.">January 22, 2018</a>, The State Department established a Cuba Internet Task Force "to examine technological challenges and opportunities for expanding internet access in Cuba." (Disclosure -- The Task Force formed two sub-committees and I was a member of both).</li><li><a href="https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21ABVG1k7BupnLW4U&cid=0ADA1FC728725202&id=ADA1FC728725202%21108863&parId=ADA1FC728725202%2125594&o=OneUp">July 23, 2018</a>, The consortium that owns the ARCOS cable applied to construct a branch from the cable to an ETECSA supplied cable landing spot in Cojimar, Cuba.</li><li><a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-353441A1.pdf">August 10, 2018</a>, The FCC found the application "to be acceptable for filing and subject to the streamlined processing procedures" obligating them to take action "within forty-five (45) days" unless upon "further examination" the application is "deemed ineligible for streamlined processing."</li></ul><div>Well, it seems the application must have been deemed ineligible since as far as I know nothing happened until earlier this month when <a href="https://www.justice.gov/nsd/committee-assessment-foreign-participation-united-states-telecommunications-services-sector">The Committee for the Assessment of Foreign Participation in the United States Telecommunications Services Sector</a> (CAFPUSTSS), which Trump established in an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-establishing-committee-assessment-foreign-participation-united-states-telecommunications-services-sector/">executive order</a> on April 4, 2020, <a href="https://www.commsupdate.com/articles/2020/09/11/cable-compendium-a-guide-to-the-weeks-submarine-and-terrestrial-developments/">notified the FCC</a> that it is planning to conduct 120-day security reviews of the ARCOS application.</div><div><br /></div><div>I reached out to the FCC and the attorney who filed the request for the cable branch to ask why the application had not been acted upon but got no reply. I can think of two possible explanations:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Trump changed his policy with respect to Cuban Internet connectivity without, as far as I know, telling anyone.</li><li>Trump held this application up in order to grab a Florida headline between now and the election when the CAFPUSTSS rejects the application showing how tough he is on Cuba in an effort to win Cuban and Venezuelan votes.</li></ul><div>I'm unfamiliar with FCC procedures and workflow -- is there another explanation?</div></div></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, note that on March 15, 2018, Deep Blue Cable Inc. <a href="https://fcc.report/IBFS/SCL-LIC-20180316-00006/1355379.pdf">applied for a Caribbean cable</a> with 19 landing points. While none of those were in Cuba, they planned a <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/08/a-new-undersea-cable-landing-in-cuba.html">second phase</a> with two Cuban landing points, but the Deep Blue application <a href="https://fcc.report/IBFS/Public-Notices/2058628.pdf">was withdrawn</a> on November 11, 2019.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 11/30/2020</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Denise Coca, FCC Division Chief, informed me that the ARCOS-1 application had been withdrawn on October 20, 2020, about two weeks before the election. When asked why the FCC had taken so long to process the application, she did not answer.</div><div><br /></div><div>I wonder whether this might be re-submitted to the Biden FCC. Since <a href="http://www.circleid.com/posts/20170620_trumps_cuba_policy_and_its_impact_on_the_cuban_internet/">the administration sought Cuban rapprochement</a> during his time as Vice President, I imagine Biden would favor the link. One can argue that doing so would be a net political win among Florida voters. Would Cuban president Díaz-Canel approve it? It would r<a href="http://www.circleid.com/posts/20170821_a_new_undersea_cable_landing_in_cuba/">educe traffic on the Cuban backbone</a> and improve international connectivity, but might be construed as a security threat and neutralize one of his complaints against the US.</div><div><div><br /></div></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-9011031902170974142020-08-18T07:41:00.000-07:002020-08-18T07:41:00.325-07:00¿Existe un futuro para los emprendimientos tecnológicos privados en Cuba?<p><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">This is a guest post by Cuban professor Armando Camacho Costales. </span></span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"> </span></span></i><i>It is a continuation of <a href="post http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/05/cuentapropismo-tecnologico-en-cuba.html">a previous post</a>. </i><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">Armando is interested in the self-employment sector in Cuba and writes about the Internet on his blog <a href="https://cubaenred.cubava.cu/">Cuba 2.0</a>.</span></span></i></p><p>Cuba posee una cantidad abrumadora de normas y barreras burocráticas que obstaculizan el desarrollo del sector privado de la economía. Sector mayoritariamente orientado hacia los servicios. Restaurantes y cafeterías, hostales, alquiler de casas y habitaciones y transporte de pasajeros representan más del 40% de las licencias activas al cierre del primer semestre del 2020. Otro 30% corresponden a trabajadores que constituye “<em>fuerza de trabajo contratada” </em>por esos “emprendedores”. Aproximadamente 25% lo constituyen trabajos artesanales o casi folclóricos (por ejemplo, desmochador de palmas); solo un 5%, 32 699 trabajadores, pueden ser considerados emprendimientos tecnológicos. </p>
<p>Estos “negocios privados” tienen en el turismo, o en menor medida a los cubanos residentes en el extranjero, como sus principales clientes y fuente de ingresos. Una encuesta señala que <a href="http://www.iri.org/">el 75% de sus ingresos</a> provienen de esos dos mercados. La escasez de productos de primera necesidad ha impulsado a las autoridades una cruzada de acciones policiales y judiciales en contra de las “actividades de la economía sumergida” por lo que a la pérdida del 75% de sus ingresos también enfrentan el desabastecimiento de insumos. En la antes citada encuesta los “cuentapropistas” declaran que su cadena de suministro proviene en un 21% del “mercado negro” o la “economía sumergida”. A lo anterior se le agrega los desajustes macroeconómicos y estructurales pendientes por resolver de la economía cubana.</p>
<p>Todo ello hace que el “trabajo por cuenta propia” (TCP) y sus <em>“emprendimientos empresariales”</em> enfrenten en la actualidad un colapso estructural solo comparable al “periodo especial” acontecido en la década de los noventas del pasado siglo.</p>
<p>De 632 557 <em>“trabadores por cuenta-propia” (</em>TCP) activos en febrero del 2020, 243 203 (38%) a finales de marzo solicitaron suspensión temporal para no operar a consecuencia de la pandemia del SARS COV2. Los más afectados resultaron los <em>trabajadores contratados</em> con 60 318 (25%), <em>transportistas</em> 42 213 (18%), <em>arrendadores de habitaciones</em> 21 714 (9%) y servicios gastronómicos 14 464 (6%); de acuerdo a cifras oficiales.</p>
<p>La situación empeora con respecto al pequeño y dinámico número de emprendimientos en el sector <em>info-telecomunicaciones</em>; la autorización de nuevas licencias está suspendida desde 2017 a la espera que el Ministerio de las Comunicaciones actualice el alcance de la actividad. Hasta la fecha se mantienen las tres (3) actividades aprobadas hace ya más de una década:</p>
<ul>
<li>Agente de telecomunicaciones y agente postal</li>
<li>Reparador de equipos electrónicos</li>
<li>Programador de equipos de cómputo.</li>
</ul>
<p>Al cierre del primer semestre del 2020 trabajan como <strong>"Agente de telecomunicaciones y agente postal”</strong> 27 888, <strong>“Reparador de equipos electrónicos”</strong> 3 747 y <strong>“Programador de equipos de cómputo”</strong> 1 064 trabajadores. Un total de 32 699; 5% de todas las licencias activas al cierre del primer semestre del 2020.</p><p><strong><em></em></strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong><em><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zpOgZMVkPXo/XzvkpogUAYI/AAAAAAAB2qs/klICEQUohCUa8K0F6cWMMG_q2tJjqL8GgCNcBGAsYHQ/s577/a1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="577" height="308" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zpOgZMVkPXo/XzvkpogUAYI/AAAAAAAB2qs/klICEQUohCUa8K0F6cWMMG_q2tJjqL8GgCNcBGAsYHQ/w462-h308/a1.png" width="462" /></a></em></strong></div><strong><em>“Agentes de telecomunicaciones”</em></strong> la actividad comienza a desarrollarse a partir del 2014 cuando se les permitió a los cubanos el acceso a internet y representan el 85% del total y no requiere conocimiento técnico alguno al ser los encargados de gestionar la venta y el cobro de los servicios de <strong>ETECSA </strong>percibiendo por ello una comisión por estas ventas. La edad promedio de estos trabajadores sobrepasa los 45 años y constituye un ingreso suplementario para muchos pensionados. Por su parte <strong>ETECSA</strong> disminuye personal, costos de oficina, salarios y al mismo tiempo acercan sus servicios a las comunidades, muchas de ellas pequeñas comunidades rurales, las 24 horas del día los siete días de la semana.<p></p><p><strong></strong></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7SErcWgGdhA/XzvkyCI7CJI/AAAAAAAB2qw/eXR7FUmxMNwYaF2x1bY_rbpNJ3XC_SRgQCNcBGAsYHQ/s577/a2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="577" height="308" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7SErcWgGdhA/XzvkyCI7CJI/AAAAAAAB2qw/eXR7FUmxMNwYaF2x1bY_rbpNJ3XC_SRgQCNcBGAsYHQ/w462-h308/a2.png" width="462" /></a></strong></div><strong>“Reparador de equipos electrónicos”</strong> sus titulare son los empresarios de la mayor parte de los talleres de reparación e instalación de aplicaciones para los teléfonos inteligentes, computadoras personales y demás dispositivos. Desde el 2016 se encuentran en el entorno de los 3740 trabajadores activos; con muy pocas nuevas incorporaciones; la edad promedio 35 años. De las tres actividades es la que más empleo crea pues el 50% de los titulares declara emplear al menos a otro trabajador por cuenta propia.<p></p>
<p><strong>“Programador de equipos de cómputo”</strong> representa el 3% con 1 064 licencias, cifra inferior a la repostada en <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/05/cuentapropismo-tecnologico-en-cuba.html">nuestro primer análisis</a>. Es la más dinámica y volátil de las tres; con estudios universitarios y edad promedio 30 años.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YV1R-BqUFwA/Xzvk44lRnJI/AAAAAAAB2q0/ZuEXULaP0swYyI1Cbzxfb3p4i9PWVcAdQCNcBGAsYHQ/s577/a3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="577" height="308" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YV1R-BqUFwA/Xzvk44lRnJI/AAAAAAAB2q0/ZuEXULaP0swYyI1Cbzxfb3p4i9PWVcAdQCNcBGAsYHQ/w462-h308/a3.png" width="462" /></a></div>Desde el 2017 no se han incorporado nuevos programadores; pero 745 han abandonado la actividad desde igual fecha. Las licencias se encuentran en su mínimo en los últimos cinco años. La de mayor concentración geográfica, el 67% (712) residen en La Habana. <p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xE5Qii7mg-0/XzvlBgrwZ5I/AAAAAAAB2rA/VmMtBpu4dKoD6Bp6fJJxExp1_KwsOH4gwCNcBGAsYHQ/s577/a4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="577" height="308" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xE5Qii7mg-0/XzvlBgrwZ5I/AAAAAAAB2rA/VmMtBpu4dKoD6Bp6fJJxExp1_KwsOH4gwCNcBGAsYHQ/w462-h308/a4.png" width="462" /></a></div>Las tres actividades por cuenta propia se encontraban paralizadas desde finales del 2016; mucho antes del cierre por la pandemia de la COVID-19; la consecuente depresión económica, solo ha amplificado la tendencia a la baja de los últimos cuatro años.<p></p>
<p>Los negocios particulares resurgieron en la Isla como una necesidad, más que una opción, para enfrentar el colapso económico del 1994 y el subsiguiente desplome de industrias tradicionales como la agro-azucarera; la que no logrado recuperar sus niveles de exportación anteriores a 1989.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yYJxQaPDWEA/XzvlK_ILC9I/AAAAAAAB2rI/rEpNIEM8ro4QC17g0k6bRO4HSWM--v4FwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1200/a5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="307" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yYJxQaPDWEA/XzvlK_ILC9I/AAAAAAAB2rI/rEpNIEM8ro4QC17g0k6bRO4HSWM--v4FwCNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h307/a5.png" width="410" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>El trabajo por cuenta propia constituye uno de los sectores más dinámicos y volátiles de la economía nacional, representa entre un 7% y 15% del PIB y ha creado más de 600 mil nuevos empleos.<p></p>
<p>Su reto hoy será encontrar los mecanismos internos y externos mínimos para sobrevivir el colapso del 2020 y para las autoridades gubernamentales y reguladoras la urgencia de establecer políticas agiles y realistas acordes a <em>la nueva realidad</em> que impida le ocurra algo similar con las exportaciones de azúcar refinada. </p>
<p>¿Es posible reconvertir el trabajo por cuenta propia en pequeñas y medianas empresas más orientadas <a href="https://www.cemad.es/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Los-economistas-y-la-economía-digital.pdf">a <em>la nueva economía digital</em></a>?</p>
<p>Para ello es necesario establecer cuanto antes un paquete de ayudas crediticias-fiscales y reformas operativas y de gestión que detenga la actual tendencia al decrecimiento, después adelantar el proyectado cronograma legislativo que permita promulgar cuanto antes las anunciadas nuevas leyes de: <strong><em>empresas, de inversión extranjera o fiscales</em></strong>. <strong><em> </em></strong></p>
<p>Las actuales normas vigentes para el sector tecnológico privado han sido modificadas dos veces entre el 2018 y el 2019, las cifras demuestran que han fracasaron; ahora bajo las actuales circunstancias económicas están obsoletas.</p>
<p>¿Existe un futuro para los emprendimientos privados tecnológicos en Cuba?</p>
<p>El futuro para los emprendimientos privados en el sector tecnológico es sombrío, difícil de predecir, y a los efectos prácticos se encuentra prácticamente detenido; podría llegar a mínimos históricos o desaparecer la actividad de programadores para el 2021. Para evitar esta posibilidad urge:</p>
<ul>
<li>Otorgar cuanto antes nuevas licencias. Aumentar o diversificar el número de licencias en sectores con mayor valor añadido como las del sector tecnológico; con ello se al menos se podría detener la actual tendencia decreciente y el éxodo de un personal altamente calificado.</li>
<li>Aprobar un mayor alcance para los <a href="http://cubaenred.cubava.cu/2019/10/09/nueva-norma-para-el-sector-privado-de-las-tics-en-cuba/">programadores</a> se les permita la posibilidad legal de comercializar nacional e internacionalmente sus productos, servicios o bienes; asociarse en cooperativas o espacios de <em>“coworking”</em> de acuerdo a las mejores prácticas internacionales e importar equipos o servicios de alta tecnología.</li>
<li>Modificar o eliminar las actuales estructuras verticales por otras más dinámicas de conformidad con la actual revolución tecnológica del siglo XXI.</li>
<li>Reformar la actual política fiscal para el sector privado. Identificada por el sector como la mayor barrera que impide su desarrollo. La política tributaria debería establecer impuestos similares al sector privado o estatal; la actual estructura fiscal afecta el flujo de caja, la creación de nuevos empleos e incita a la elusión y evasión fiscal.</li>
<li>Facilitar la reconversión de estos negocios personales en pequeñas y medianas empresas con oportunidades análogas a las otras formas de propiedad en la economía nacional.</li></ul>
<p>Proyecciones de la <a href="https://www.unwto.org/es/news/covid-19-las-cifras-de-turistas-internacionales-podrian-caer-un-60-80-en-2020">Organización Mundial del Turismo (OIT)</a> prevé una caída entre el 60% y el 80% del sector, y una lenta recuperación en el 2021 (condicionada a que se pueda detener la pandemia). Con estas proyecciones tampoco se prevé una recuperación a corto plazo de la economía cubana. Permitir que desaparezcan 300 mil empleos privados junto al 10% del PIB en dos años no debería ser una opción para la sociedad cubana. </p>
<p>La actual recesión económica podría funcionar como una ventana de oportunidades a mediano plazo que permita la transformación de los actuales (y la creación de nuevos emprendimientos privados) más orientados al sector productivo para satisfacer las demandas básicas de una sociedad desde la perspectiva de una <a href="http://ide.mit.edu"><strong>“<em>nueva economía digital”</em></strong></a> y una sociedad del conocimiento al servicio de otros emprendimientos en los sectores primario y secundario. Estos negocios tecnológicos proveerían herramientas y conocimientos para incrementar la calidad, la rentabilidad y la productividad de toda la estructura económica nacional. </p>
<p> </p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-21775507320828638902020-02-24T10:48:00.000-08:002020-02-26T14:15:05.338-08:00Mass-produced propaganda -- a Cuban example<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SMC8dYznEgs/XlQaI3nlSPI/AAAAAAABm7c/ohudzidnSZAmhnEix5clJ4xJ0HfnYbF8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/anonymousDeafult-Profile-Pitcher.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SMC8dYznEgs/XlQaI3nlSPI/AAAAAAABm7c/ohudzidnSZAmhnEix5clJ4xJ0HfnYbF8QCNcBGAsYHQ/s200/anonymousDeafult-Profile-Pitcher.png" width="200" height="200" data-original-width="561" data-original-height="560" /></a></div><i>An "author" named Admin posted over 1,000<br />
articles in seven languages in two weeks.</i><br />
<br />
Earlier this month, Google sent me several notifications for an article entitled "The Internet Is Widely Accessible in Cuba. Why Is the US Insisting It Isn’t?" I checked it out and found that Reese Erlich <a href="https://truthout.org/articles/the-internet-is-widely-accessible-in-cuba-why-is-the-us-insisting-it-isnt/">had posted it</a> on Truthout.org, a left-leaning Web site, on February 12. On the 13th, Cabasi.com published a shortened version of <a href="http://cubasi.com/cuba/item/21623-the-internet-is-widely-accessible-in-cuba-why-is-the-us-insisting-it-isn-t">the article</a> and Salon.com <a href="https://www.salon.com/2020/02/17/the-internet-is-widely-accessible-in-cuba-why-is-the-us-insisting-it-isnt_partner/">published the original version</a> on the 17th. These were all in English and both Salon and Cubasi credited Truthout.<br />
<br />
I also received notification of <a href="https://diariodelatinos.com/2020/02/13/internet-es-ampliamente-accesible-en-cuba-por-que-estados-unidos-insiste-en-que-no-lo-es/">an article entitled</a> "Internet es ampliamente accesible en Cuba. ¿Por qué Estados Unidos insiste en que no lo es?" that was published February 13 at DiarioDeLatinos.com.<br />
<br />
It turns out that DiarioDeLatinos also published English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese and Russian versions of the same article on the 13th. The seven versions of the article were all written by the same author, <i><a href="https://diariodelatinos.com/author/admin/">Admin</a></i>, with a little help from Google Translate, which rendered "New York Times" as "New York Instances" in the first paragraph. Admin is prolific -- he or she had posted 1,072 articles on DiarioDeLatinos.com as of the morning of February 18th and DiarioDeLatinos.com was registered on February 4th. The registrant organization is Domains By Proxy, LLC, which is located at the GoDaddy Headquarters building in Scottsdale, Arizona:<br />
<blockquote>Registry Registrant ID: Not Available From Registry<br />
Registrant Name: Registration Private<br />
Registrant Organization: Domains By Proxy, LLC<br />
Registrant Street: DomainsByProxy.com<br />
Registrant Street: 14455 N. Hayden Road<br />
Registrant City: Scottsdale<br />
Registrant State/Province: Arizona<br />
Registrant Postal Code: 85260<br />
Registrant Country: US<br />
Registrant Phone: +1.4806242599<br />
Registrant Phone Ext:<br />
Registrant Fax: +1.4806242598<br />
Registrant Fax Ext:<br />
Registrant Email: diariodelatinos.com@domainsbyproxy.com<br />
Registry Admin ID: Not Available From Registry<br />
Admin Name: Registration Private</blockquote>Private domain registration is reminiscent of banks facilitating money laundering. I wonder what else Domains By Proxy is hiding. <br />
<br />
Finally, I took a look at what the censors at Cubasi deleted when they edited the original article. They cut mention of tools like the Signal encrypted messaging app and VPNs, the fact that Cubans can download El Nuevo Herald, and Cuba’s blocking of Web sites. They also deleted references to dissidents like Yoani Sanchez or Ladies in White and admissions that only 38 percent of Cubans are connected to the web compared to 70 percent for all of Latin America, 3G wireless is being installed in Cuba while much of the world is switching over to 5G, Cuba lacks convertible currency, Cubans don’t have the bandwidth to stream video and El Paquete is “by far” the most popular technology for Cubans.<br />
<br />
This was not Cuba's first foray into online propaganda. In 2013, Eliécer Ávila <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2013/11/eliecer-avila-and-operation-truth-who.html">described Operation Truth</a> in which 1,000 university students were writing social media posts favoring the government and working as "trolls," disrupting discussion and attacking those who question the government and last month Granma posted a <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2020/01/cuban-fake-news-about-fake-news.html">propaganda/conspiracy article</a> about US subversion.<br />
<br />
I wonder how much Internet propaganda the Cuban government sponsored between 2013 and 2020 and I worry about the fact that any government could do the same.<br />
<br />
<b>Update 2/26/2020</b><br />
<br />
A reader sent me a link to a claim of <a href="https://www.revistaelestornudo.com/cuba-ejercito-troles/">sock-puppet trolls working for the Cuban government</a> and another pointed out that the term of art is "Ciberclaria" and if you Google that term, you will find more examples like <a href="https://www.cubanet.org/destacados/ciberclarias-un-ejercito-que-invade-las-redes-sociales-con-cuentas-falsas/">this</a> or <a href="https://adncuba.com/noticias-de-cuba/como-detectar-una-ciberclaria">this</a>.<br />
<br />
(This post is mirrored on my <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2020/02/mass-produced-propaganda-cuban-example.html">class blog</a> covering Internet applications, implications and technology).Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-89825667368188187942020-01-10T05:46:00.000-08:002020-01-10T07:57:05.607-08:00Cuban fake news about some fake news<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-g77YrmBNZD8/XhhvGx5HIbI/AAAAAAABcco/COXmos5mmTUJMdqsgst2hawjvxvuN3lhwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/fourwinners.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="300" height="320" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-g77YrmBNZD8/XhhvGx5HIbI/AAAAAAABcco/COXmos5mmTUJMdqsgst2hawjvxvuN3lhwCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/fourwinners.png" width="140" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Four CITF winners (<a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-cuba-internet-task-force-win-for.html">source</a>)</td></tr>
</tbody></table><i>When the Cuba Internet Task Force (CITF) was established, it was touted as being formed for the benefit of the Cuban people, but that was fake news.</i><br />
<br />
Granma recently posted <a href="http://en.granma.cu/mundo/2020-01-07/internet-and-the-dirty-us-war-on-cuba">a Trump-worthy article</a> charging that the U. S. finances mercenary groups and gives scholarships to train young Cubans as fake leaders in a dirty Internet war on Cuba. The article also alleges that activists who live in Florida, Texas, Tennessee and Georgia have tried to manipulate Cuban opinion on the constitutional referendum using the hashtag <i>#YoVotoNo</i> on Twitter and it claims we do similar things in Iran and Bolivia.<br />
<br />
I am not sufficiently naive to think that the US has never meddled with the Internet in Cuba and have blogged extensively about <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search/label/alan%20gross">the Alan Gross case</a>, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search/label/zunzuneo">Zunzuneo</a> and the attempted <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search?q=smuggle">smuggling of satellite receivers</a> disguised as surfing equipment, but the claims made in this article are bogus. It is telling that there there are no links in the story -- nothing to substantiate any of the claims -- and I have first-hand knowledge of the central claim that:<br />
<blockquote>In February of 2018, the so-called Cuba Internet Task Force was created, following instructions outlined in a Presidential memorandum on national security, released June 16, 2017. The website Razones de Cuba has documented that the CIA’s Political Action Group and institutions on the task force have highly qualified specialists who, based on models previously developed through Big Data, sent sector-specific messages to Cubans.</blockquote>The <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/CITF-02072018.pdf">CITF established two subcommittees</a>, one to explore and develop recommendations on the role of the media and the free, unregulated flow of information through independent media in Cuba and the other to explore and develop recommendations for expanding Internet access in Cuba. I attended the first meeting of the Internet-access subcommittee, participated in the online discussions of both and reviewed and commented on their draft recommendations.<br />
<br />
The Task Force <a href="https://www.state.gov/cuba-internet-task-force-final-report/">Final Report</a> is short -- only 1,904 words on 6 double-spaced pages. (This post is 631 words). It consists of a summary of the state of the Cuban Internet and regulatory policy followed by nine fairly obvious, tersely stated recommendations. I am unaware of any impact it has had on U. S. or Cuban action or policy.<br />
<br />
The CIA and its Political Action Group (PAG) are not mentioned in the report and were never mentioned during the discussion leading up to it. No form of cyberattack or propaganda was discussed by the Task Force or called for in the final report. In short, this was a bland report and the Task Force was a show for Florida voters.<br />
<br />
The quote regarding the CIA and PAG are taken from the English language version of the story. It is noteworthy that it has been edited out of the <a href="http://www.granma.cu/mundo/2020-01-07/internet-y-la-guerra-que-se-nos-hace-07-01-2020-01-01-12">Spanish</a>, <a href="http://fr.granma.cu/mundo/2020-01-07/linternet-et-la-guerre-qui-nous-est-livree">French</a>, <a href="http://de.granma.cu/mundo/2020-01-07/internet-und-der-krieg-den-sie-uns-aufzwingen">German</a>, <a href="http://it.granma.cu/mundo/2020-01-07/internet-e-la-guerra-che-ci-fanno">Italian</a>, and <a href="http://pt.granma.cu/mundo/2020-01-07/internet-e-a-guerra-que-esta-sendo-travada-contra-nos">Portuguese</a> versions. Each version credits the same author and I reached out to him asking about this but did not receive a reply. Furthermore, the article credits the <i>Razones de Cuba</i> Web site with having documented this CIA PAG meddling. I searched their Web site for terms like <i>Grupo de trabajo</i>, <i>grupo de tarea and </i>and 1984, but got no hits.<br />
<br />
You get the picture -- the CITF did not work with the CIA and this Granma article does not document any of the charges it makes. In fact, it includes no links or quotes -- just assertions. When the CITF was established, it was touted as being formed for the benefit of the Cuban people, but that was fake news. <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-cuba-internet-task-force-win-for.html">It was a political move</a>, intended to give Trump a boost in Florida. It also provided Cuba with propaganda fodder for articles like this one and strengthened the economic and political ties between Cuba and Russia and China.Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-34472214647017647742020-01-01T13:58:00.000-08:002020-01-09T09:51:58.828-08:00Could ETECSA at least talk with SpaceX?Consider the following:<br />
<div style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="1108" height="128" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0hJ9FVrV7qk/Xgz2I5PwkeI/AAAAAAABcTg/SBDN0akpbXoJaJGErhEyVDKkXzb9UcygQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/caribstarlink2020.png" width="320" /></div><ul><li>SpaceX will begin <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-to-expect-from-spacex-starlink.html">offering Starlink, their low-Earth orbit (LEO) broadband Internet service, in the Caribbean</a> this year or early next year.</li>
<li>ETECSA, Cuba's government monopoly Internet service provider, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/12/cuban-satellite-connectivity-today-and.html">is already using SES's O3b middle-Earth orbit satellites</a> for international traffic and may very well be <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/03/cubas-mobile-internet-strategy.html">planning to use next-generation O3b satellites for mobile backhaul</a>.</li>
<li>Cuba may be <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/does-chinas-digital-silk-road-to-latin.html">considering Chinese LEO constellations</a> for future connectivity, but <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/06/hongyun-project-chinas-low-earth-orbit.html">China is far behind SpaceX</a>.</li>
<li>SpaceX <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/02/spacex-starlink-and-cuba-match-made-in.html">has a lot to offer Cuba</a>.</li>
<li>In spite of his rhetoric, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/06/trumps-cuba-policy-and-its-impact-on.html">Trump has not done anything to further constrain Internet service from the US</a>.</li>
<li>The final report of Trump's <a href="https://www.state.gov/cuba-internet-task-force-final-report/">Cuba Internet Task Force</a> recommended that among other things we "facilitate exports and services and engage with the U.S. private sector to clarify current regulations and seek feedback on how the regulations affect their ability to invest in ICT in Cuba."</li>
<li>Trump is willing to "make deals" with dictators.</li>
<li>Elon Musk is a risk-taker.</li>
<li>ETECSA has <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/12/google-global-cache-coming-to-cuba.html">accepted Google Global Cache servers</a> -- how about a ground station in the same data center?</li>
<li>It is hard to imagine ETECSA allowing end-user satellite terminals given the Cuban political situation, but they could use them for mobile backhaul and connectivity to WiFi hotspots, state organizations like clinics, schools, Joven Clubs, etc.</li>
</ul>Could ETECSA at least talk with SpaceX?<br />
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<b>Update 1/9/2020</b><br />
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For a Spanish translation of this post, click <a href="http://cubaenred.cubava.cu/2020/01/08/podria-etecsa-al-menos-hablar-con-spacex/">here</a>.<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-90279919106318541012019-11-17T12:53:00.000-08:002019-12-30T22:41:42.128-08:005G for fixed connectivity in CubaETECSA reports that <a href="http://www.escambray.cu/2019/beneficiados-mas-de-110-100-hogares-cubanos-con-el-servicio-nauta-hogar/">over 110,100 Cuban households</a> have DSL connectivity using their Nauta Hogar service. There are also shared facilites -- <a href="http://www.etecsa.cu/internet_conectividad/areas_wifi/">986 WiFi hotspots</a> (127 in Havana) and <a href="http://www.etecsa.cu/internet_conectividad/salas_de_navegacion/">347 Navigation Rooms</a> (44 in Havana) with 1,309 computers (304 in Havana). <br />
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These services are dead-ends on the road to hoped-for "computerization." The Cuban population is around 11 million so, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/07/old-havana-fiber-trial-to-begin-august.html">after three years</a>, roughly one person in 100 lives in a Nauta home and the services are limited geographically since DSL is only available in the vicinity of telephone central offices and WiFi hotspots and Navigation Rooms are at fixed locations. Furthermore, the connection speeds are low and the prices high.<br />
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When the U. S. began making fixed Internet connections to homes, schools, businesses, etc., we had an installed inventory of relatively new last-mile phone lines, television cables, and longer fiber links and we have been expanding that infrastructure for forty years. Cuba does not have those assets and, even if they were willing to invite foreign investment, the gap would continue to grow. (Furthermore, I wouldn't wish a foreign monopoly or duopoly on anyone).<br />
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Could 5G wireless help with Cuban fixed connectivity? <br />
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Medium-Earth orbit (MEO) satellite Internet service provider <a href="http://ses.com">SES</a> has been <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/12/cuban-satellite-connectivity-today-and.html">providing Cuban international transit for two years</a>, so they have an established relationship with ETECSA. SES also provides 2, 3 and 4G mobile backhaul and managed mobile service in places like <a href="https://www.ses.com/case-study/delivering-managed-mobile-backhaul-chad">Chad</a>, <a href="https://www.ses.com/press-release/wateen-telecom-customers-enjoy-reliable-cellular-backhaul-connectivity-throughout">Pakistan</a> and <a href="https://www.ses.com/ses-moving-png-towards-new-digital-future-0">Papua New Guinea</a>. (They also offer <a href="https://www.ses.com/networks/signature-solutions/signature-telecom-mno/wi-fi-network-service">WiFi hotspots as a service</a>).<br />
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SES is planning to offer the same services plus focused small-cell connectivity <a href="https://www.ses.com/blog/satellite-and-5g-revolution-ses-leads-charge">for 5G networks</a> when their next-generation mPower satellites come online. SES has 20 MEO satellites in orbit today and in 2021 they will be adding seven <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2018/03/o3b-satellite-internet-today-and.html">next-generation mPower MEO satellites</a> with over 4,000 shapeable and steerable beams that can be switched under program control, giving the constellation over 30,000 dynamically reconfigurable beams and over 10 Tbps capacity. The mPower satellites will work in conjunction with their current MEO satellites and their geostationary satellites.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nldCFE9fvTQ/XdArhpdwl5I/AAAAAAABZgw/Nl8-I3DYYOY23F8qF629gWrcVeCP0aD6QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/sergesimulationUS.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1600" height="99" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nldCFE9fvTQ/XdArhpdwl5I/AAAAAAABZgw/Nl8-I3DYYOY23F8qF629gWrcVeCP0aD6QCNcBGAsYHQ/s200/sergesimulationUS.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Expected Starlink coverage, mid-2020</td></tr>
</tbody></table>How about using low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites for 5G backhaul? Several companies are developing LEO Internet-service constellations, but SpaceX's Starlink constellation <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2017/08/spacex-satellite-internet-project-status.html">has a clear lead</a>. Simulation of their announced plans shows that <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/11/what-to-expect-from-spacex-starlink.html">they will have coverage over Cuba</a> by around the middle of next year and after that capacity will grow steadily as they launch new satellites. SpaceX plans to focus on the US market at first, but Elon Musk is an iconoclast who refused to serve Trump and I would encourage ETECSA to at least reach out to SpaceX.<br />
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So much for backhaul and system integration, how about connectivity to the thousands of local small cells that would be required for fixed broadband? That would require a lot of <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/02/do-it-yourself-rural-fiber.html">local fiber</a>, which could be <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/havana-can-have-5g-before-miami.html">planned and installed by local people</a>. Decentralization of the design and installation of the edge of a fixed 5G network would require more than capital and new technology -- it would require a political shift to a <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/06/cuban-telecommunication-regulation-in.html">telecommunication policy focused on economic and social goals</a>. Unfortunately, that seems less likely today than it seemed before the <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/08/questions-raised-by-takeover-of-snet.html">confiscation of SNET and other community networks</a>.<br />
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Cuba is emphasizing and investing in mobile connectivity today and phones and tablets are fine for applications like content consumption, online shopping, social interaction, and Twitter-style politics, but businesses, schools, content creators, software developers, etc. need larger computers with fast, fixed connectivity. If Karl Marx were alive today, he might say mobile phones were the opiate of the people.<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-60960700788403553752019-08-21T13:57:00.000-07:002019-12-28T06:08:36.702-08:00Questions raised by the takeover of SNET, Havana's community network<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NIhxTPCfmVg/XVg6JT_jvqI/AAAAAAABWuw/-2RU612NNk0h2rW-_9HO7d6qiEOF201JwCLcBGAs/s1600/jccsnetillustration.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="940" height="110" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NIhxTPCfmVg/XVg6JT_jvqI/AAAAAAABWuw/-2RU612NNk0h2rW-_9HO7d6qiEOF201JwCLcBGAs/s200/jccsnetillustration.png" width="200" /></a></div>Last May, Cuba's Ministry of Communication (MINCOM) <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/cubas-new-wifi-regulations-good-bad-or.html">announced resolutions 98 and 99</a> limiting wireless transmission power and outdoor cables that made community networks like Havana's SNET, illegal. Since SNET was the world's largest community network that did not have Internet access, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/07/cubas-new-private-network-regulations.html">implementation of the resolutions was postponed for 60 days for negotiations</a> between SNET administrators and MINCOM. The negotiations <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/especiales/2019/08/15/joven-club-y-redes-privadas-se-interconectan-en-cuba-nos-beneficiamos-todos/?fbclid=IwAR0nIXDY2aZ0L5HTr6rAIV6ZdvWc1LpyKOvfaqFOpvEC7g9DgMVHEfI2dO8#.XVgpwuhKg55">have ended with a decision</a> to transfer SNET's services and content to ETECSA, Cuba's government-monopoly ISP, and to provide access through Cuba's <a href="https://www.jovenclub.cu/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=491">nationwide chain of 611 Youth Computer Clubs</a> (YCCs), as illustrated by the diagram shown here.<br />
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The new regulations authorize people to install WiFi equipment in their homes and businesses in order to access the YCCs, represented by the blue building, and public WiFi hotspots, represented by the sunny outdoor location. The diagram also shows cables running from the YCCs to larger buildings that may represent ETECSA data centers, wireless Internet points of presence and homes with DSL connectivity.<br />
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The <a href="https://www.apnews.com/acf45d2374534e48976c9df16d3501af">government says</a> SNET "will grow with the increased infrastructure” of the YCCs and ETECSA and claims that <a href="https://www.mincom.gob.cu/en/noticia/ministry-communications-cuba-enables-use-population-wired-and-wireless-networks">the intent of Resolutions 98 and 99 is to expand Internet access</a>, but many in the SNET community fear losing access to and control of the assets they have created. You can see their point of view by searching Twitter for the hashtags #YoSoySnet and #FuerzaSnet. The protesters (and I) have many questions about the takeover, like:<ul><li>While some testing has begun, this conversion will take time and resources -- why not allow parallel operation of SNET during the cutover to ETECSA/YCC?</li>
<li>How many homes are close enough to connect to current WiFi hotspots and YCCs?</li>
<li>Given the current planned infrastructure expansion, how long will it take to re-connect all current SNET users?</li>
<li>How many of the 611 YCCs have fiber links and what is the schedule for connecting the others?</li>
<li>Are rooftop and other outside antennas legal (<a href="https://www.mincom.gob.cu/sites/default/files/preguntas_y_respuestas_frecuentes.pdf">MINCOM FAQ 18)</a>?</li>
<li>Will wireless network installer be added to the list of self-employment occupations (<a href="https://www.mincom.gob.cu/sites/default/files/preguntas_y_respuestas_frecuentes.pdf">MINCOM FAQ 19)</a>? </li>
<li>What provisions are being made to extend connectivity to community network members in smaller cities, outside of Havana?</li>
<li>SNET offers many services in addition to gaming -- social networking (similar to Facebook), FTP (file transfer) for content sharing, live music streaming, software for download, and forums for developers and engineers, poetry, literature, comics, and sports. Will all of the current SNET services and content be supported?</li>
<li>Was the ETECSA/YCC migration anticipated and planned for during the drafting of resolutions 98 and 99?</li>
<li>Were SNET and YCC representatives consulted or involved in the drafting of resolutions 98 and 99?</li>
<li>There has been some dissension among SNET administrators in the past -- was this agreement approved unanimously?</li>
<li>In Spain, the UK, Argentina, and other nations, the decision was made to cooperate with and support community networks -- to treat them as <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/could-snet-become-cubas-guifinet.html">cooperatively-owned Internet service providers</a>. Did MINCOM consider that alternative and, if so, why was it rejected?</li>
<li>Some SNET members have been detained and threatened for voicing opposition to the takeover of the network -- are those reports accurate?</li>
<li>What will ETECSA/YCC charge for access to former SNET services?</li>
<li>Did MINCOM do a cost/benefit analysis of the conversion?</li>
<li>Will former SNET members be compensated in any way for their investment in equipment or time in creating intellectual capital in the form of content, software or communication infrastructure?</li>
</ul>SNET was a Cuban success story -- a user-owned and operated cooperative that developed infrastructure, applications, and content. SNET and the other Cuban community networks may have connected as many homes as ETECSA's home DSL service, Nauta Hogar. Cuba's community networks also developed human capital -- experienced users and technicians who, in the long run, benefit both ETECSA and society. <br />
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Skeptics see this takeover as confiscation of community assets rather than an effort to better serve the public. Transparent answers to these and related questions could ease their concerns and I hope ETECSA and the JCCs are able to quickly deliver on their promises.Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-34877973070059927762019-08-19T11:27:00.001-07:002019-08-19T14:16:00.936-07:00 SNet: inicio o final?<i>This post was written by a friend who asked me to post it anonymously. (I am just a platform, like Facebook or 8chan :-).</i><br />
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El pasado 10 de agosto decenas de integrantes de SNet se reunieron en las afueras del Ministerio de Comunicaciones de Cuba para solicitar una vía legal que impida la desaparición de la red.<br />
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A finales de mayo, dos resoluciones ministeriales, <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2019/05/29/preguntas-y-respuestas-sobre-reglamento-de-redes-privadas-de-datos/#.XVrenuhKg55">las resoluciones No 98 y la 99 del Ministerio de las Comunicaciones</a>, establecían un nuevo marco regulatorio del espacio radioeléctrico cubano, legalizaban las redes privadas, aunque los límites impuestos suponían la desaparición de SNet, la gran infraestructura habanera de acuerdo a la tipología empleada por sus administradores desde hace más de 10 años. <br />
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Sin embargo, la solución de las autoridades de comunicaciones y los reguladores fue la fusión con la infraestructura de los Joven Club de Computación, una organización adscrita a la Organización de los Jóvenes Comunistas, la rama juvenil del Partido Comunista de Cuba. <br />
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Con tal medida se disuelve la hasta ahora precaria autonomía de la red comunitaria habanera. <br />
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Muchos de los administradores quedaron conformes con las nuevas condiciones. Otros no. Estos últimos convocaron a otro encuentro frente a las instalaciones del Ministerio de Comunicaciones el pasado sábado 17 de agosto, la cual no se efectuó debido al despliegue en la zona y detenciones por parte de las autoridades policiales, de acuerdo a los propios activistas y medios alternativos de noticias. <br />
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<a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/especiales/2019/08/15/joven-club-y-redes-privadas-se-interconectan-en-cuba-nos-beneficiamos-todos/#.XVre_-hKg55">El arreglo consiste, de acuerdo al sitio oficial Cubadebate, en una alianza técnica</a> que permitirá trasferir todas las prestaciones de la red hacia estos centros estatales, utilizando la infraestructura propia de los Jóvenes Clubes y las de ETECSA.<br />
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De acuerdo a esta nota oficial:<blockquote>Los integrantes de las redes privadas de La Habana entregaron más de 250 productos, entre juegos y servicios, desarrollados por ellos mismos a los Joven Club. El director general de Comunicaciones del Mincom asevera que los programadores podrán ser contratados como colaboradores y reconoce el talento de los jóvenes de las redes privadas. Joven Club puede contratar a estos muchachos como colaboradores o como trabajadores. <b>Hay espacio para que puedan seguir desarrollándose y que el servicio continúe creciendo, así nos beneficiamos todos</b>. Este proyecto es inclusivo, los juegos que hasta ahora se disfrutaban en un barrio de La Habana, por ejemplo, estarán a disposición de gamers de todo el país. Esta buena nueva despeja la mayor preocupación de las comunidades: quedarse desconectadas. Según Plá Feria, el MINCOM y los Joven Club robustecen su infraestructura para llegar a la mayor cantidad de lugares posibles. “Incluso, ya se emplean los equipos de quienes integran las redes privadas, gracias a su disposición de colaborar y extender sus prácticas aprovechando las potencialidades de “la computadora de la familia cubana.</blockquote>El propio diario del Partido Comunista de Cuba, Granma, <a href="http://www.granma.cu/cuba/2019-08-15/integrar-redes-entre-personas-naturales-nuevo-proyecto-de-los-joven-club-15-08-2019-23-08-40">publica una nota sobre el asunto</a>.<blockquote>En estos momentos se realizan las pruebas de conexión y trabajos de acondicionamiento de la infraestructura tecnológica para la expansión de la wifi en algunas instalaciones de La Habana: Palacio Central de Computación, Cerro v Parque Manila, Playa IX, así como en el municipio de 10 de Octubre y en la urbanización de Alamar. <br />
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Las pruebas que se realizan en estos momentos son libres de costo, aunque en etapas siguientes las tarifas que se implementen serán más asequibles para las familias que se conecten a esta red, señaló Díaz Meriño.</blockquote>Los servicios traspasados incluyen foros, las redes sociales, los juegos en línea, y otros. Ya ha comenzado en algunos “pilares” habaneros, como el del Cerro. Hasta el momento libres de costo; pero se anuncia que en un futuro se cobraran. <br />
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Con esta fusión los Jóvenes Clubes utilizaran la infraestructura desplegada de forma cooperativa por los administradores y usuarios de la red; los que a su vez tendrán que acceder a un mayor costo cuando se cobren los servicios. <br />
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Usuarios en la página de <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/especiales/2019/08/15/joven-club-y-redes-privadas-se-interconectan-en-cuba-nos-beneficiamos-todos/#.XVrgiuhKg55">Cubadebate</a> anotan estas preocupaciones entre los que están a favor y posen sus suspicacias (se ha respetado la ortografía original).<br />
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<b>Maximino </b>dijo:<blockquote>Considero que el SNet independientemente que es una red privada a logrado muchas cosas hasta este momento que el estado no ha logrado, con pocos medios y de forma prácticamente gratuita, con gran cúmulo de servicios y una plataforma casi en la totalidad de la habana, en igual sentido lleva años posibilitando la diversión de los pequeños y mayores de la casa, me pregunto podrá los joven club integrar los usuarios q pretendan acceder a estos servicios, los costos del estado serán igual q los q impone etecsa q. Son casi imposible pagar? Esta red estará disponible para el 2030?</blockquote><b>Daylin </b>dijo:<blockquote>Buenos días Maximino, lo que pretende Joven Club es integrar y aumentar los servicios para el disfrute de la familia. Los precios les aseguramos que seran módicos, por debajo del menor precio de las redes privadas. No es objetivo de Joven Club enriquecerse con estas acciones si no que haya una red segura, amplia y bajo las resoluciones. El precio sera colegiado entre Joven Club y las personas de las redes. Espero que se despejen sus dudas. Estamos para que los usuarios esten claros en todo lo que esta pasando.</blockquote><b>mimismo </b>dijo:<blockquote>Hola, si los precios que se van a cobrar van a ser por debajo de los minimos que se cobran en las redes privadas, ¿Cuánto me cobrarán a mi que me conecto de gratis y siempre lo he hecho de gratis acá en Santa Clara?</blockquote>Las redes comunitarias suelen constituirse y adaptarse de forma cooperativa y colaborativa a partir de la necesidad de los usuarios; algo que muchos no ven que suceda en los Jóvenes Club de Computación. Y no es tema de precios, se conoce que el acceso a la internet en Cuba es uno de los más onerosos en el mundo, aproximadamente 1 USD la hora de conexión en una zona WiFi. El tema que más suspicacias conlleva es la perdida de la autonomía de la red tal y como se ha desarrollado hasta hoy al ser fusionada con una organización estatal y política, con su propia agenda y prioridades. Incluso entre los estatutos actuales de la SNet está que no se permite hablar o debatir de política, religión, sexo o pornografía. Uno de los valores de estas redes cubanas es que no se hace hincapié en la posible rentabilidad financiera o promover una agenda política o religiosa.<br />
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Otros ven el futuro más optimista.<br />
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<b>Shadow Walker Administrador de SNET (Street NETwork) CUBA - Perfil Oficial</b> dijo:<blockquote>Para gran parte de la comunidad de SNET a nivel nacional esta es una gran noticia aunque aun existe muchas dudas con respecto a los servicios. Dentro de estas y las mas importantes creo que ya debatidas por Doom y Julito personas muy queridas dentro de nuestro pequeño espacio digital es la de la conexion de usuarios los cuales viven muy distantes de los Joven Club, seria bueno que junto a estos sumen a todas las entidades que pertenecen al MINCOM para llegar a mas puntos de acceso dentro de la red nacional, ejemplos de estos, Joven Club ya incluidos, Etecsa, Correos de Cuba, Copextel, Radio Cuba, Radio Aficionados y demas entidades que cuenten en este momento con fibra óptica, también dentro de estos proyectos incluir he instruir a los gobiernos provinciales y municipales en cuanto a indicaciones para potenciar este tipo de conexion.</blockquote>Pero tal y como la conocemos la SNet, como los dinosaurios, está condenada a desaparecer.<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-86455727815619971702019-07-30T13:33:00.001-07:002019-10-12T00:08:55.906-07:00Cuba claims new regulations expand Internet access to homes and businesses, but here's the downside<i>The new regulations establish constraints on private network transmission power and cabling that, if enforced, would put Cuba's cooperatively-owned community networks out of business.</i><br />
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New Cuban regulations regarding private WiFi networks went into effect yesterday, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/29/world/americas/cuba-internet-technology.html">the New York Times</a> and others proclaimed that "Cuba expands Internet access to private homes and businesses." Yes, Cubans can legally import and install WiFi routers in their homes, small cafes, B&Bs, etc., but these regulations will make little difference in Internet access.<br />
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For a start, very few homes and small businesses in Cuba have links to the Internet. Furthermore, my guess is that most people in homes that are connected to the Internet have already installed registered or unregistered WiFi routers. (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iQt0pX_WcJMtQn7iTkg5zjTxQEXzoEFT/view?usp=sharing">Resolution No. 65/2003</a> dated June 5, 2003, states the procedure for registering a private data network).<br />
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If that is the case, what do these new regulations change? <br />
<br />
They establish constraints on private network transmission power and cabling that, if enforced, would put Cuba's cooperatively-owned community networks, the largest of which is <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/data-on-snet-and-few-suggestions-for.html">SNET</a> in Havana, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/cubas-new-wifi-regulations-good-bad-or.html">out of business</a>. Even if they are not enforced today, they will hang like the sword of Damocles over their heads.<br />
<br />
That's the bad news. The good news is that the Ministry of Communication has postponed enforcement for 60 days while they negotiate with SNET.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FjlHKh4xc0s/XUB3AXoeRaI/AAAAAAABWmI/Fq21kzg9I0QrokMPjofHPuv2Ejp9_xWtgCLcBGAs/s1600/snetpostponement.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="1024" height="120" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FjlHKh4xc0s/XUB3AXoeRaI/AAAAAAABWmI/Fq21kzg9I0QrokMPjofHPuv2Ejp9_xWtgCLcBGAs/s400/snetpostponement.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">SNET will remain up during 60 days of negotiation (<a href="https://twitter.com/camilocondis/status/1155912253054623746" target="_blank">source</a>).</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
Why would the Cuban government want to eliminate community networks? Do they see them as economic competitors to the government Internet service provider, ETECSA? Is ETECSA embarrassed by the fact that community networks connect so many people at so little cost? Do they fear clandestine, anti-government communication? I really don't know.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--CDdGynU2X4/XUCHHroOW6I/AAAAAAABWmg/hJVg4U_TwLsB91ZnMhWYnfNDg7wVBsXEwCLcBGAs/s1600/guifimap2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="415" height="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--CDdGynU2X4/XUCHHroOW6I/AAAAAAABWmg/hJVg4U_TwLsB91ZnMhWYnfNDg7wVBsXEwCLcBGAs/s200/guifimap2.png" width="188" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://guifi.net/">Guifi.net</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>If Cuba aspires to what the International Telecommunication Union refers to as <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/06/cuban-telecommunication-regulation-in.html">fourth generation policy</a>, which they characterize as "Integrated regulation – led by economic and social policy goals," they should regard the community networks as collaborators, not competitors. They should <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/03/might-cubas-street-net-snet-become.html">legitimitize SNET and the others</a>, subsidize and work with them and provide them with Internet connectivity. SNET is the world's largest community network that is <i>not</i> connected to the Internet. Cuba should follow the lead set by Spain, where they <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/could-snet-become-cubas-guifinet.html">have provided Internet connectivity to Guifi.net</a>, the world's largest Internet-connected community network. Looking to the future, community networkers could <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/havana-can-have-5g-before-miami.html">play a valuable role in the installation of Cuba's 5G wireless infrastructure</a>.<br />
<br />
Cuba proudly proclaims (<i>Trump</i>ets) that they working toward the computerization of society. The outcome of these negotiations with SNET will shed light on the veracity of that claim. <br />
<br />
<b>Update 8/10/2019</b><br />
<br />
The Cuban Ministry of Communications has refused to make an exception to their restrictions on wireless power and cabling and says <a href="https://www.facebook.com/notes/snet-street-network-cuba-perfil-oficial/fin-de-snet/2409301609157415/">SNET (and presumably other Cuban community networks) must shut down</a>. Over one hundred people <a href="https://www.14ymedio.com/nacional/permitir-red-SNet-amenazan-autoridades-Cuba-redes_inalambricas-joven_club_0_2708129166.html"> have gathered to protest</a> the decision, allegedly without any call to do so.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KiaQE4mKswQ/XU77qpUIwbI/AAAAAAABWsQ/STpRb-WEVJAGV9uQM8e1BctueIVTnGGNACLcBGAs/s1600/snetprotest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="680" height="300" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KiaQE4mKswQ/XU77qpUIwbI/AAAAAAABWsQ/STpRb-WEVJAGV9uQM8e1BctueIVTnGGNACLcBGAs/s400/snetprotest.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
This goes beyond the loss of a large community network -- it signifies Cuban government intransigence and belies the claim that they seek "computerization" of the society and a modern Internet.<br />
<br />
I asked earlier, why they might want to eliminate rather than <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/03/might-cubas-street-net-snet-become.html">collaborate with community networks</a> and suggested three possibilities:<ol><li>They see community networks as economic competitors to ETECSA, the state-monopoly ISP.</li>
<li>They are embarrassed by the community networks' ability to connect so many people at so little cost.</li>
<li>They fear anti-government communication.</li>
</ol>Since they control the Internet and have seen the example of countries like China which use a ubiquitous Internet as a tool of control, I lean toward answers 1 and 2.<br />
<br />
<b>Update 8/11/2019</b><br />
<br />
Ernesto De Armas <@RealErnesto95>, tweeted this positive update on the negotiations with MINCOM: <br />
<blockquote>Hola a todos. Por esta vía transmito las buenas nuevas respecto a SNET, hoy en la tarde el grupo de trabajo SNET-MINCOM llegaron a favorables acuerdos mediante los cuales se determinó que Snet va a pasar todos sus servicios a través de los JCC, los JCC a su vez estarán conectados por fibra óptica entre ellos y los servidores que contienen nuestros servicios se montarán en ETECSA.<br />
<p>También se autorizó a que los nodos se conecten a los JCC utilizando equipos de alta potencia que son los necesarios para poder hacer esto, entre estos equipos se incluyen los equipos de Ubikiti, Nanostation, etc de alta potencia, no pondrán trabas para estas conexiones hacia los JCC. También hay otra buena noticia, los servicios de SNET pronto estarán disponibles ¡Para todo el país!<br />
<p>También advirtió el grupo de trabajo respetar estos acuerdos y no realizar nada que pueda atentar contra los mismos, nada de manifestarse públicamente (que a mí entender no hace ya ninguna falta, ya hemos logrado lo que queríamos) ni hacer declaraciones ofensivas contra MINCOM. En mi opinión hemos ganado está batalla por la subsistencia de #Snet, ahora debemos cooperar entre todos para hacer de este proyecto algo mejor, incluso, a lo que teníamos anteriormente. Estoy sumamente contento, alegre y agradecido de que nuestras instituciones estatales no hayan hecho oídos sordos a nuestra causa. Hoy comienza una nueva era en la Informatización de la sociedad cubana</blockquote>TheCubanJedi <@darthdancuba> asked "Podrán abrir algo de sNet a internet??" and Ernesto replied "No. De momento nada de internet a través de Snet como siempre ha sido."<br />
<br />
This is unofficial, but if it is accurate, SNET will be more widely available and faster, but not yet on the Internet.<br />
<br />
<b>Update 8/12/2019</b><br />
<br />
Sad to say, the August 10th update was accurate. Ernesto De Armas <@RealErnesto95> has learned that <a href="https://twitter.com/RealErnesto95/status/1160785708786888704">MINCOM has ruled against SNET</a> and the restrictions on transmission power and cabling will be upheld.<br />
<br />
Needless to say, this is disappointing to the users of Cuban community networks and to the general population since it is an indication that ETECSA is determined to remain a monopoly.<br />
<br />
A <a href="https://adncuba.com/noticias-de-cuba/actualidad/se-rompen-negociaciones-entre-snet-y-mincom-los-gamers-convocan-marcha">demonstration protesting the decision</a> will be held next Saturday. Here is the announcement:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A7HXoIIFPeA/XVGmJo0QC-I/AAAAAAABWs0/IxJun8FbJNAg8MhyzQEGY-WLDhgCJr56ACLcBGAs/s1600/snetbadnews.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A7HXoIIFPeA/XVGmJo0QC-I/AAAAAAABWs0/IxJun8FbJNAg8MhyzQEGY-WLDhgCJr56ACLcBGAs/s320/snetbadnews.png" width="240" height="320" data-original-width="810" data-original-height="1080" /></a></div><br />
Here is Ernesto's English translation:<br />
<br />
As we have the conviction that Revolution is to change everything that needs to be changed, on Saturday, August 17th, from 9am in the park located in front of the MINCOM, behind the bus station terminal, we make a call to all persons filiated to Snet from all the provinces of the country. <br />
<br />
SNET, a community created more than 15 years ago, is being affected by the resolutions 98 and 99, we fight and demand to have an autonomous SNET that keeps the social project that we have had during all these years and that reaches so many homes and Cuban families.<br />
<br />
To everyone who has the feeling for Snet, which has been created by everyone, this is the time to fight against resolutions 98 and 99 that are attacking the correct functioning of our community, created with everyone's sacrifice and with more than a decade of existence and acceptance by thousands of Cubans. <br />
<br />
This is the time to make MINCOM understand that true democracy is conceived and defined by the people and that we must be heard because we are the youth of this country, the new generation and as the future that we are we demand to be considered.<br />
<br />
We urge and summon every teenager, young, adult or old person, without any difference who feels identified with our cause, either has enjoyed or not with our network and our services to support us from every place and every spot because WE ALL MATTER, WE ARE ALL SNET. On this depends the end of the beginning of a new dream, a new path that we want to follow, so we can accomplish our acknowledgment before the authorities and a happy ending to keep ourselves being what we are. Snet...<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-30234894466537903072019-06-20T09:21:00.001-07:002019-12-28T06:09:32.642-08:00Havana can have 5G before Miami(Click <a href="http://cubaenred.cubava.cu/2019/06/27/la-habana-puede-tener-5g-antes-que-miami/">here</a> for a Spanish translation of this post).<br />
<br />
<i>Havana needs 5G more than Miami does.</i><br />
<br />
Compared to Miami, Havana is an Internet desert, but Havana may have 5G wireless connectivity before Miami. 5G architecture, US politics and policy, and the 5G timetable favor Havana. Let's start with 5G architecture.<br />
<br />
<b>Architecutre</b><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yT69yf1yAjM/XQpo2dWozbI/AAAAAAABWRI/7tT924nP9jcn2Csr4kENJ7BNjHYYjX0ZwCLcBGAs/s1600/smallcellwashington2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="697" height="119" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yT69yf1yAjM/XQpo2dWozbI/AAAAAAABWRI/7tT924nP9jcn2Csr4kENJ7BNjHYYjX0ZwCLcBGAs/s200/smallcellwashington2.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Small cells (<a href="http://committeeof100.net/uncategorized/5gsmallcell/">source</a>)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>5G will require many "small cells" because it uses high-frequency radio signals that don't travel as far as 4G signals and are more easily blocked by obstructions like trees and buildings. For example, there are about 154,000 cell towers in the US today and the CTIA, an industry association, <a href="https://www.ctia.org/news/what-is-a-small-cell">estimates</a> that there will be 800,000 small cells by 2026.<br />
<br />
In Miami, small cell radios will be installed by professional employees of and contractors to the large mobile phone companies. Havana has only one telecommunication company, ETECSA, but it is home to <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/data-on-snet-and-few-suggestions-for.html">SNET</a>, the world's largest community network that is not connected to the Internet. Today, SNET is illegal but tolerated, and if ETECSA were willing to legitimize and collaborate with SNET, SNET members could play a role in siting and installing small cells. SNET's legal status is <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/cubas-new-wifi-regulations-good-bad-or.html">currently being reconsidered</a> and by the time Havana is ready to deploy 5G, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/04/a-5g-community-network-strategy-for.html">SNET could play a major cost and time-saving role</a>. (Note that Cuba's <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-constitution/communist-cuba-seeks-improved-governance-idUSKCN1PB25U">new constitution</a> de-centralizes executive governance by reducing provincial government and strengthening municipal government, possibly increasing the likelihood of local control of Internet infrastructure). <br />
<br />
Havana's population is about 4.5 times that of Miami, but the population density is about one-tenth of Miami's. Low population density lends itself to citizen installation -- antennas will be relatively easy to site and install. Furthermore, obtaining permission to install them in Havana will be easier than Miami. Wire-line Internet service providers have already installed broadband infrastructure throughout Miami and, since 5G will offer a fixed-broadband alternative, the incumbents will resist it politically. On the other hand, 5G will fill a near-vacuum in Havana -- Havana needs 5G more than Miami does. <br />
<br />
<b>Time</b><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4KoYVm5IoUY/XQpeMxpTuFI/AAAAAAABWQ4/LoqrHXu2YzUfrNaiUKCbjgS3cf2SpzS1gCLcBGAs/s1600/4gspeedincrease.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="271" data-original-width="483" height="112" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4KoYVm5IoUY/XQpeMxpTuFI/AAAAAAABWQ4/LoqrHXu2YzUfrNaiUKCbjgS3cf2SpzS1gCLcBGAs/s200/4gspeedincrease.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Average 4G download speed, Mbps (<a href="https://www.opensignal.com/">source</a>)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Wireless standards are complex and evolve over time. The <a href="https://www.3gpp.org/">Third Generation Partnership Project</a> was established in 1998 to define 3G mobile standards and is now defining 5G standards. Thousands of people from equipment manufacturers, telecommunication companies, national and international standards organizations, and professional societies are involved in the process and the technology and standards evolve over time. (For example, between February of 2016 and January 2019, <a href="https://www.opensignal.com/">average 4G download speed doubled in the US</a>). <br />
<br />
While we will see an ad proclaiming that Miami "has 5G" this year or next, the capability and applications will be marginally improved over 4G and only available in limited parts of the city. Perhaps five years from now 5G standards and equipment that can support novel applications will become available.<br />
<br />
In the interim, neither city will see much 5G impact, but it will give Havana time to continue with their current program of stopgap measures like 3G mobile access. If the price of 3G is significantly reduced, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-case-for-making-3g-mobile-internet.html">Cuba will develop trained, demanding Internet users and app developers</a> who are ready to embrace 5G once it is available.<br />
<br />
Stopgap measures like 3G, public WiFi, and home DSL will not close the fiber gap between Miami and Havana, but in five years improved terrestrial wireless and low and medium-earth orbit (LEO and MEO) satellite connectivity will be available for 5G backhaul. Cuba <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/12/cuban-satellite-connectivity-today-and.html">is already a customer</a> of MEO Internet-service provider O3b and <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2018/03/o3b-satellite-internet-today-and.html">in five years O3b will have significantly improved capacity and performance</a>. Additionally, LEO providers <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/02/spacex-starlink-and-cuba-match-made-in.html">SpaceX</a>, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2017/08/oneweb-satellite-internet-project.html">OneWeb</a> and China's <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/06/hongyun-project-chinas-low-earth-orbit.html">Hongyun Project</a> all plan to be offering service over Cuba in five years. SpaceX is based in the US and OneWeb in Great Britain, so Hongyun may have the inside track here, although they will have less capacity than their competitors.<br />
<br />
<b>Politics and policy</b><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aPTyIu5qLIc/XQpwGDVIEjI/AAAAAAABWRs/37EQY-whneMqakv29xCd3XKtkyBLUqjzQCLcBGAs/s1600/tradewar3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1026" data-original-width="1272" height="161" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aPTyIu5qLIc/XQpwGDVIEjI/AAAAAAABWRs/37EQY-whneMqakv29xCd3XKtkyBLUqjzQCLcBGAs/s200/tradewar3.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: right;"><a href="https://twitter.com/adamzyglis/status/1128691868177453058">source</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Trump's trade war with China favors Havana over Miami. As FCC Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel <a href="https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2018/09/26/trump-5g-china-tariffs-000707">points out</a>: "levying new tariffs on everything from semiconductors to modems to routers is not going to make it any easier to deploy 5G wireless service. In fact, it will make it much more expensive." <br />
<br />
His ban against Huawei further advantages Havana since Huawei is the <a href="http://104.130.132.225/telecom-equipment-market-2018-2/">world's leading producer</a> of telecommunication equipment for service providers with a comfortable lead over their 5G competitors Nokia and Ericsson. They are also the number 2, in unit sales, and number 3, in revenue, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/samsung-and-huawei-crush-apples-smartphone-global-market-share/">smartphone manufacturer</a>. If the ban persists, Miami will not have access to Huawei equipment. <br />
<br />
By contrast, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/09/cuban-infrastructure-investment-china.html">Huawei has supplied nearly all of Cuba's Internet infrastructure</a> from its backbone to WiFi hotspots and home DSL and they are almost certain to be Cuba's 5G vendor. It is likely that China will contribute financially if they see Cuba as a strategic ally in their effort to <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/06/does-chinas-digital-silk-road-to-latin.html">extend the Digital Silk Road to Latin America and the Caribbean</a>.<br />
<br />
The US government was instrumental in <a href="https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=240575">funding the development of the Internet</a> and could adopt positive 5G policies like investing in R&D or providing incentives to participate in the <a href="https://www.3gpp.org/">global 5G standards process</a>, but Trump eschews global cooperation and Chinese companies are <a href="http://www.circleid.com/posts/20181125_america_will_not_win_the_global_race_to_5g/">playing a leading role in the definition of 5G standards</a>, which will solidify Huawei's leadership. Chinese telephone companies with <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/278204/china-mobile-users-by-month/">1.58 billion mobile phone subscriptions</a>, will also influence standards as large 5G equipment customers.<br />
<br />
Rather than seeing 5G as a cooperative global effort, Trump sees it as a competitive race and his <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/america-will-win-global-race-5g/">5G policy</a> focuses on spectrum allocation (<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2019/06/14/how-the-fcc-lost-a-year-in-the-race-to-5g/?utm_campaign=Center%20for%20Technology%20Innovation&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=73794672">which is going poorly</a>) and a call for State and local governments to improve "access to land, infrastructure, and property that will support new wireless networks, including rural America." [sic] That call sounds like it was drafted by a lobbyist for the incumbent mobile telcos or perhaps an ex-Associate General Counsel at Verizon like FCC Chairman Ajit Pai and it will meet resistance. (<a href="http://www.ecns.cn/news/2019-05-27/detail-ifziqifn8554161.shtml?mc_cid=6909d18641&mc_eid=9d423851d6">China has no such conflict</a>).<br />
<br />
I used the word "can" instead of "will" in the title of this post because the outcome depends upon the will of the Cuban government and ETECSA.Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-47223228252896032142019-06-13T09:05:00.001-07:002020-03-20T19:53:22.331-07:00Cuba's new WiFi regulations -- a step forward, backward or sideways?<i>Cuba has legalized WiFi access to public Internet hotspots from nearby homes and small businesses, but SNET and other community networks remain illegal under the new regulations. Does this signify a significant policy change?</i><br />
<br />
Soon after Cuba's state monopoly telecommunication company ETECSA <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/06/cubas-wifi-access-plan-raises.html">began rolling out WiFi hotspots</a> for Internet access, people began linking to them from <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/03/three-generations-of-cuban-wifi-hotspot.html">homes</a> and <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/06/an-innovative-street-net-with-internet.html">community street nets</a>. These connections and importing the WiFi equipment they used were illegal, but <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2014/06/cubas-wifi-crackdown-substance-or.html">generally tolerated</a> as long as they remained apolitical and avoided pornography. Regulations <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-internet-idUSKCN1SZ2UD">passed last month</a> legalized some of this activity in a bid to boost connectivity by allowing Internet access from homes and <a href="https://havanatimes.org/news/cuba-to-allow-private-wi-fi-networks-and-cybercafes/">small private businesses</a> like restaurants and vacation rentals that are located close enough to a hotspot to establish a WiFi connection.<br />
<br />
The added convenience may generate more revenue for ETECSA and it will give the Ministry of Communication (MINCOM) some small fees and, more important, registration data on the local-area network operators. (If you license a connection, you have the power to rescind the license). It will also generate some additional network traffic, which may strain network capacity. There are two WiFi frequency bands -- 2.4 and 5 Ghz -- and a friend told me that currently only the 2.4 Ghz band is being used. The new regulations allow use of the 5 Ghz band as well, which will add capacity from homes and businesses to the hotspots, but backhaul capacity from the hotspots to the Internet may become more of a bottleneck and exacerbate quality of service problems.<br />
<br />
So much for small networks, but what, if anything, will be the impact of these regulations and their enforcement be on larger, community networks, the largest of which is <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/data-on-snet-and-few-suggestions-for.html">Havana's SNET</a>? The new regulations bar cables that cross streets and radio transmitter power over 100 mW. SNET uses cables and higher-powered transmitters, so, if these regulations were enforced, they would put SNET and smaller community networks out of business.<br />
<br />
However, community networks have been illegal and tolerated since their inception, so it may be that they will continue to be ignored. If that is the case, the new regulations don't really change the status quo, but what if these new regulations foreshadow a policy change? What if ETECSA were willing to <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/03/might-cubas-street-net-snet-become.html">collaborate with community networks</a> following the example of <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/11/could-snet-become-cubas-guifinet.html">Guifi.net in Spain</a>?<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XkG8g5eg9bs/XQJPE5depoI/AAAAAAABWJI/cVFOIjsBQdwMmI9UkJSupEfmijsZiMbXwCLcBGAs/s1600/snetarchitecture.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="968" data-original-width="1190" height="163" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XkG8g5eg9bs/XQJPE5depoI/AAAAAAABWJI/cVFOIjsBQdwMmI9UkJSupEfmijsZiMbXwCLcBGAs/s200/snetarchitecture.bmp" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">SNET topology. Red dots are pillars;</br>others are second-level nodes (<a href="https://conferences.sigcomm.org/imc/2017/papers/imc17-final186.pdf">source</a>).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>If that were the case, ETECSA could take steps like providing high-speed wireless or fiber Internet connections at the locations of the central SNET backbone "pillars" and allowing cables and faster wireless links to and within second-level networks that serve up to 200 users. They could also cooperate with SNET administrators in purchasing supplies and equipment and network management and they could do the same for smaller community networks outside of Havana.<br />
<br />
So, which is it -- a step backward with cracking down on SNET and other community networks, a slightly positive step adding locations from which one can access a WiFi hotspot, or a positive indication of a policy change and a step toward incorporating community networks into the recognized and supported Cuban Internet infrastructure?<br />
<br />
We will know the answer after the new rules go into effect on July 29, but my guess is that it will be the middle choice, a slightly positive step. Cracking down on SNET would be disruptive -- eliminating jobs and depriving thousands of users of services they value and I don't think the government would want those problems. At the other extreme, full cooperation with community networks would mean ETECSA giving up control and the dilution of their bureaucratic and financial monopoly, <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/04/what-stopped-cuban-internet-in-1996-and.html">which seems unlikely</a>. <br />
<br />
But, to end on a more upbeat note -- a friend tells me that he has heard that SNET community representatives are talking with the government. Could ETECSA and MINCOM have different views and, if so, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2014/12/who-owns-etecsa-and-who-runs-show.html">who is in charge</a>? <br />
<br />
<b>Update 6/15/2019</b><br />
<br />
Two things. First, the friend I mentioned above commented on my speculation that MINCOM and ETECSA might have different views, saying "ETECSA and MINCOM are so tight together that is hard to say where one starts and the other one begins."<br />
<br />
He also pointed out that the administrators of four of the SNET sub-nets <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/ay16y5a4vn03v12/2019-06-10%20Comunicado%20Oficial%20Equipo%20Administraci%C3%B3n%20SNET%20-%20Intercambio%20con%20MINCOM.pdf?dl=0">posted a statement</a> telling users to remain respectful and calm while they negotiate with MINCOM to protect the interest of SNET and other community networks. They have had one meeting in which they talked about spectrum and the statement refers to the "regulatory framework," suggesting that MINCOM is open to high-speed wireless links. They say the first meeting was productive and they will have future meetings.<br />
<br />
This increases my confidence that SNET will survive under these new regulations and, if MINCOM allows high-speed links between the sub-nets, SNET performance will improve. It would be even better if the talks go beyond SNET's survival and move on to ways they can <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/03/might-cubas-street-net-snet-become.html">collaborate with ETECSA</a>. <br />
<br />
You can follow the negotiation progress on the <a href="https://es-la.facebook.com/SNET.Cuba/">SNET Facebook page</a>.<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-9179154125808729852019-06-03T12:14:00.000-07:002020-02-03T09:48:17.823-08:00Does China's Digital Silk Road to Latin America and the Caribbean run through Cuba?<i>China will not ignore Latin America and the Caribbean forever and Cuba is a logical place to start.</i><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ap6JRKAx5xU/XPPo3wwBE9I/AAAAAAABVHY/W7KU3feQxVMFlUMnt7Wmvwm45zBHLrtEwCLcBGAs/s1600/digitalsilkroad2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1600" height="163" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ap6JRKAx5xU/XPPo3wwBE9I/AAAAAAABVHY/W7KU3feQxVMFlUMnt7Wmvwm45zBHLrtEwCLcBGAs/s320/digitalsilkroad2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">DSR IT infrastructure projects as of 12/2018 (<a href="https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2019/01/china-digital-silk-road">source</a>).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious, long-term, global investment and development program. It was launched in 2013 with a focus on infrastructure -- roads, railroads, pipelines, undersea cables and ports. Since then <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/xi-to-host-37-world-leaders-at-belt-and-road-forum">China has invested $80 billion and signed 173 BRI agreements</a> with 125 countries and 29 international organizations. <br />
<br />
<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/chinas-digital-silk-road-a-game-changer-for-asian-economies/">Building a Digital Silk Road</a> (DSR) is a BRI subgoal. The DSR was added in 2015 under the name "Information Silk Road" with the <a href="http://www.eias.org/eu-asia-at-a-glance/the-invisible-silk-road-enter-the-digital-dragon-may-2018/">goals</a> of improving international communications connectivity and fostering the internationalization of China’s rapidly growing tech companies. The DSR plan addresses technologies like security, machine learning, 5G wireless, chip design and manufacturing and applications in areas like e-commerce, e-government, and smart cities. It also encompasses infrastructure in space -- the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45471959">BeiDou</a> satellite navigation system, the <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/06/hongyun-project-chinas-low-earth-orbit.html">Hongyun</a> low-earth orbit broadband Internet project and the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-01303-y">Digital Belt and Road</a> Earth observation program.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vWKipt58amM/XPL8_H3NcMI/AAAAAAABVGE/J1OMw6gz08IpExajDlqf4z5pdhZNjjDHACLcBGAs/s1600/huaweicables.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="641" data-original-width="1067" height="120" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vWKipt58amM/XPL8_H3NcMI/AAAAAAABVGE/J1OMw6gz08IpExajDlqf4z5pdhZNjjDHACLcBGAs/s200/huaweicables.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Huawei's Caribbean cables (<a href="http://www.huaweimarine.com/en/Marine/Home/Experience">source</a>).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>China Unicom and Camcom <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/Undersea-cables-Huawei-s-ace-in-the-hole">installed an undersea cable</a> between Cameroon and Brazil with Huawei doing the engineering and installation. Previously, Huawei had installed the underwater cables shown here, but the DSR project has focused primarily on Eurasia and Africa. However, China will not ignore Latin America and the Caribbean forever and Cuba is a logical place to start.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/belt-and-road-thematic-forum-on-digital-silk-road-held-in-beijing-300838970.html">Cuban delegates attended</a> the thematic-forum on the DSR at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in April and Cuba's digital ties to China date back many years:<ul><li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/09/cuban-infrastructure-investment-china.html">Huawei contracted to build a fiber optic backbone in 2000</a> and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2014/12/who-owns-etecsa-and-who-runs-show.html">their office is in the same complex as ETECSA's</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2013/08/alba-1-undersea-cable-background.html">Shanghai Bell was a partner in the joint venture that installed Cuba's undersea cable</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2013/01/whats-up-with-alba-1-cable-time-to.html">China may have provided a loan to finance Cuba's undersea cable</a>.</li>
<li>Cuba <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-cost-of-doing-business-in-cuba.html">had difficulty paying their Chinese debt</a> and <a href="https://developmentreimagined.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/final-doc-china-debt-cancellation-dr-final.pdf">China forgave six billion dollars in 2011</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-cost-of-doing-business-in-cuba.html">China offers Cuba favorable financing on consumer and infrastructure telecommunication equipment</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-12/06/c_137654830.htm">China and Cuba recently signed economic cooperation agreements</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/12/chinas-haier-group-will-manufacture-low.html">Chinese laptops and tablets are assembled in Cuba</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/08/laptops-for-cuban-professors.html">Cuban professors receive Chinese laptops</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/11/etecsa-will-sell-and-service-huawei.html">ETECSA sells and services Huawei phones</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/09/cuban-infrastructure-investment-china.html">Huawei equipment is used in Cuba's backbone, home DSL and public WiFi networks</a>.</li>
</ul>(Breitbart reported that <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2018/11/09/cuban-president-agrees-bring-belt-road-west-china-visit/">Cuba has agreed to bring the BRI to the west</a>, but I am not sure if that is evidence that they will or they won't :-)<br />
<br />
Cuba's <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/02/cubas-first-internet-connection.html">first connection to the Internet</a> was subsidized by the US National Science Foundation and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/06/will-cisco-make-comeback-in-cuba.html">used Cisco equipment</a>, but it's been downhill ever since. President Obama <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2017/05/crooked-media-interviews-on-cuba.html">made a sustained effort</a> to establish a connection with Cuba, but <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/06/disappointment-after-president-obamas.html">little has come of that</a> and Trump's policies on trade, immigration and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search/label/Trump">Cuba</a> have moved us further from many Latin American and Caribbean nations, creating an opening for China and the DSR.<br />
<br />
<b>Update 2/3/2020</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SmLKjf7YAGU/XjhckEQuH-I/AAAAAAABi5M/Uw_NAhKRA0oqy4eqT_gZ2X8WwlRshorMwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/chileancable.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SmLKjf7YAGU/XjhckEQuH-I/AAAAAAABi5M/Uw_NAhKRA0oqy4eqT_gZ2X8WwlRshorMwCNcBGAsYHQ/s200/chileancable.png" width="200" height="176" data-original-width="616" data-original-height="541" /></a></div>Huawei built <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/submarine-cable/fibra-optica-austral">an undersea cable</a> connecting four landing points in southern Chile and Chile is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-telecoms-transpacific-cable/chile-to-study-trans-pacific-cable-to-connect-south-america-with-asia-idUSKCN1U72I5">studying the feasibility</a> of a trans-pacific undersea cable connecting Valparaiso with China or Japan. Chilean President Sebastian Pinera met with Huawei executives on a visit to China in April and <a href="https://www.subtel.gob.cl/chile-firma-acuerdo-con-empresa-china-para-conectar-a-nuestro-pais-con-asia-a-traves-de-fibra-optica/">invited them to bid on the project</a>.<br />
<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-12451573756378506362019-03-28T11:38:00.000-07:002019-03-28T11:39:13.105-07:00Google and ETECSA will agree to exchange Internet traffic without charge<i>This agreement telegraphs a change in Cuban policy -- now we need the cable.</i><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SVwgRPrnLOw/XJ0Kl1N7HXI/AAAAAAABTr4/YydR7S0c3eYbEQHlTnWCc05LWRyYDq96wCLcBGAs/s1600/underseacablegoogle.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SVwgRPrnLOw/XJ0Kl1N7HXI/AAAAAAABTr4/YydR7S0c3eYbEQHlTnWCc05LWRyYDq96wCLcBGAs/s200/underseacablegoogle.png" width="200" height="198" data-original-width="1232" data-original-height="1220" /></a></div>Google and ETECSA <a href="http://www.etecsa.cu/inicio/nota_de_prensa_conjunta_etecsa_google/">have signed a memorandum of understanding</a> agreeing to negotiate a peering agreement that would allow cost-free data exchange between their networks once an undersea cable physically connects them.<br />
<br />
Google has worked hard to establish a relationship with ETECSA and the Cuban government. In recent years, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2014/12/is-internet-priority-for-cuba-ball-is.html">Cuba, not the US, has limited the Cuban Internet</a>. This agreement telegraphs a change in Cuban policy.<br />
<br />
Today, nearly all of Cuba's Internet traffic is carried over an undersea cable at the south end of the island. A cable from the Havana area to Florida would <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/08/speculation-on-cuban-internet-backbone.html">reduce the load on their inter-city "backbone" network</a> that today carries Internet traffic to the cable landing in the south. That would result in a faster Internet and save ETECSA money. The next generation of <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/02/spacex-starlink-and-cuba-match-made-in.html">low-earth</a> and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/03/cubas-mobile-internet-strategy.html">medium-earth orbit</a> satellite connectivity can have a similar effect.<br />
<br />
ETECSA could use the savings from an undersea cable or next-generation satellites to cut prices, increase investment in infrastructure or increase profit. That would depend upon <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2014/12/who-owns-etecsa-and-who-runs-show.html">who is actually calling the shots at ETECSA</a>.<br />
<br />
Over three years ago, Daniel Sepulveda, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and U.S. Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/01/a-second-high-level-us-delegation-to.html">said he knew of at least a half dozen proposals</a> — from US and non-US companies — to construct a north-south undersea cable between the US and Cuba. <br />
<br />
The cable has been stopped by politics, not economics or technical difficulty. It looks like Cuba is willing to relent on the politics. Trump's fighting this cable would solidify Cuba's political and commercial ties with <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/09/cuban-infrastructure-investment-china.html">China</a> and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/search/label/Russia">Russia</a>. <br />
<br />
<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-32503392498666188242019-03-12T10:38:00.000-07:002019-10-10T06:23:22.763-07:004G mobile trials have begun in Cuba -- what is their 3/4/5G strategy?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KIdtbEdgFZo/XIdMXT-8NpI/AAAAAAABTYI/mV7C2gAdErADUzB8sojQxKTz6fTii0D5wCLcBGAs/s1600/4gwpeed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="900" height="200" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KIdtbEdgFZo/XIdMXT-8NpI/AAAAAAABTYI/mV7C2gAdErADUzB8sojQxKTz6fTii0D5wCLcBGAs/s200/4gwpeed.jpg" width="150" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Early 4G speed test <a href="https://twitter.com/Dancuba96/status/1104138644158337024" target="_blank">Source</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>During the first month of 3G mobile service, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-first-month-of-cuban-3g-mobile.html">Cuban Internet use increased substantially</a>. At the end of January, ETECSA had 5.4 million mobile users, <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-03/08/c_137878129.htm">35% of which use the Internet</a> and they are adding 5,000 new data customers per day. According to Eliecer Samada, head of ETECSA's wireless access group, the company is now at 160% of the expected capacity. <br />
<br />
As a result of that unexpected demand and damage due to the tornado that hit Havana in January, both data and phone service <a href="https://havanatimes.org/?p=150101">have been slow and unreliable</a>.<br />
<br />
To alleviate these problems, ETECSA announced last week that they were <a href="https://www.cubanet.org/tecnologia-2/etecsa-reconoce-congestion-los-servicios-comunicacion/">accelerating 4G mobile trials</a> along the north coast from Mariel through Havana to Varadero. That is a distance of about 100 miles with 44 4G base stations. The trial will be open to about 10,000 high-volume users who have 4G-compatible phones and have been using at least 2.5 GB of 3G mobile data per month in that area. (ETECSA reports that 7% of 3G network users <a href="https://www.cubaheadlines.com/2019-03-08-p1-etecsa-begins-to-offer-4g-internet-service-in-cuba">account for 52% of the traffic</a>).<br />
<br />
Andy García <a href="https://twitter.com/Dancuba96/status/1104138644158337024">ran a speed test</a> using his neighbor's account and recorded a download speed of 5.52 Mbps, upload speed of 1.18 Mbps and a 24.17 ms latency, but a few days later, he observed slower rates and Armando Camacho recently <a href="http://cubaenred.cubava.cu/2019/03/08/4g-en-cuba-listos-fuera/">recently reported</a> a speed of 3.2 Mbps download and 5.8 Mbps upload and he has posted the locations of 21 base stations in Havana. We can't draw conclusions about the post-trial speeds from a few tests, but they will surely be faster than current 3G speeds and considerably slower than the US LTE speeds reported last month by Tom's Guide.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6qVNvsIta5w/XIQ6jVpBf9I/AAAAAAABTSM/co2hCXDLBEMWWz6djKBNTxUXu549QGKPwCLcBGAs/s1600/usltespeeds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1055" data-original-width="1500" height="141" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6qVNvsIta5w/XIQ6jVpBf9I/AAAAAAABTSM/co2hCXDLBEMWWz6djKBNTxUXu549QGKPwCLcBGAs/s200/usltespeeds.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Current US 4G speeds (<a href="https://www.tomsguide.com/us/best-mobile-network,review-2942.html" target="_blank">source</a>)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>ETECSA expects this trial to divert enough traffic to improve 3G and voice service. If that is the case, it seems the current congestion is at the base stations rather than in backhaul from them. Regardless, I expect that backhaul capacity from faster 4G base stations will constrain 4G rollout in this and other regions.<br />
<br />
I don't know what ETECSA's mobile deployment strategy is -- what the balance will be between 3 and 4G capacity and pricing -- but I have suggested that they will gain trained, demanding users if they focus on <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-case-for-making-3g-mobile-internet.html">bringing the cost down as quickly as possible</a>. That would argue for cheap or even free 3G service.<br />
<br />
The <a href="https://www.cable.co.uk/mobiles/worldwide-data-pricing/#regions">average price of 1 GB of mobile data</a> in Cuba is higher than that in 184 of 230 nations. (The price in ten of the 28 Caribbean nations is higher than in Cuba and India is the lowest-price nation). The source does not indicate the speeds of these services and it would be interesting to see them normalized for per-capita income as an indication of affordability, but there seems to be room for price-cutting in Cuba.<br />
<br />
Regardless of the deployment and pricing of 3 and 4G mobile Internet access in Cuba, both should be regarded as stopgap measures and <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/04/a-5g-community-network-strategy-for.html">plans should be made for 5G deployment</a>.<br />
<b><br />
Update 3/21/2019</b><br />
<br />
ETECSA initially restricted 4G access to those with 2.5 GB per month data plans. <a href="https://www.14ymedio.com/cienciaytecnologia/habaneros-arrasan-tarjetas-conectarse_0_2621137868.html">14Ymedio reports</a> that they have now opened 4G up to those with 1.5 GB per month plans in spite of having temporarily run out of the USIM cards that are required for 4G access. (USIM cards obsoleted SIM cards, which were used in 2G phones and could be used, with the loss of some features, in 3G phones). <br />
<br />
The article also states that they are adding 50,000 new mobile accounts per month, as opposed to the 5,000 per day reported above. They say that 40% of those users generate some sort of data traffic -- for Nauta email, MMS messages or Web browsing.<br />
<br />
<b>Update 10/10/2019</b><br />
<br />
Cubans with appropriate 1800 Mhz phones and prepaid accounts <a href="http://www.etecsa.cu/inicio/etecsa_informa_inicio_de_habilitacion_de_la_4glte_para_clientes_prepagos/">can now access 4G/LTE service</a> in parts of Havana, Matanzas, Mayabeque, Artemisa, Camagüey, Ciego de Ávila, Holguín, Granma, Las Tunas, Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba and coverage will be extended in the future. ETECSA reiterated that this would lower demand for, and presumably improve the quality of 3G, service.<br />
<br />
<br />
Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3590880278864199477.post-53449614654281485912019-01-29T14:51:00.000-08:002019-01-31T06:42:16.453-08:00The first month of Cuban 3G mobile Internet service<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iZ9gVTCDvkM/XFC6zSTSF0I/AAAAAAABRjc/Odgrq_fMpXoE6Hp_MRlD22UdyzmDuT1BwCLcBGAs/s1600/cubamobilefirstmonth.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="607" data-original-width="710" height="171" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iZ9gVTCDvkM/XFC6zSTSF0I/AAAAAAABRjc/Odgrq_fMpXoE6Hp_MRlD22UdyzmDuT1BwCLcBGAs/s200/cubamobilefirstmonth.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Oracle DNS server query rate.<br />
(Plot by Matt Prosser).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>ETECSA, Cuba's government monopoly ISP, is offering a number of stopgap Internet services -- navigation rooms, home DSL and public WiFi hotspots, but the recently rolled out <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/12/cuba-rolls-out-3g-mobile-access.html">3G mobile service</a> is the most important. The plot to the right shows the normalized rate of Cuban domain name requests to Oracle servers during the first full month of operation -- a surrogate estimate of Internet traffic volume. During the limited 3G rollout period of December 4-6, DNS hits were roughly double the previous level. When the full rollout was complete, Oracle DNS queries doubled again -- roughly 4 times that of the pre-rollout level.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DMssj-HBz7I/XFDJ65ByldI/AAAAAAABRj0/e9XrxEOuqNMgngYFmq5X0sYNS3mA4B61gCLcBGAs/s1600/etecsamobilerevenue2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="639" height="108" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DMssj-HBz7I/XFDJ65ByldI/AAAAAAABRj0/e9XrxEOuqNMgngYFmq5X0sYNS3mA4B61gCLcBGAs/s200/etecsamobilerevenue2.png" width="200" /></a></div>ETECSA released <a href="http://www.juventudrebelde.cu/cuba/2019-01-18/sesiona-en-la-uci-2do-taller-nacional-de-informatizacion">3G mobile sales data</a> for the first month at the recent National Workshop on Computerization and Territorial Cybersecurity and the results were impressive -- there were nearly 2 million transactions and the revenue was over 13 million CUC.<br />
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I <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-case-for-making-3g-mobile-internet.html">have argued</a> that as soon as they have the capacity to handle the traffic, ETECSA should cut 3G mobile prices and eventually make this <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2018/12/cuban-3g-speeds-in-context.html">slow, obsolete</a> service free. Doing so would expand and train their user base and lead to the development of new applications. For example, a month after the service was introduced, <a href="https://www.local10.com/news/cuba/young-cubans-develop-app-to-help-with-islands-transportation-woes">Sube, a taxi application</a> similar to Uber, but with cash payment directly to the driver, is available.<br />
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While free 3G would cut into ETECSA revenue in the short run, Cuban Internet policy <a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/06/cuban-telecommunication-regulation-in.html">should be determined by social and economic goals</a>, not ETECSA profit.Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0