Time for a change in our Cuban Internet strategy

In a post last week, I advised Cuban President Díaz-Canel that investment in fixed broadband Internet would benefit both the Cuban people and his regime. This week, I've got advice for US President Biden -- don't try to out-pander the Republicans and call President Díaz-Canel's bluff by offering support for fixed broadband.

What won't work

Claiming that the recent protests were a "United States-backed, social media-driven plot to stir up public discontent and overthrow the Cuban regime," the Cuban government blocked Internet access on July 11th. That prompted FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr to endorse Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis' call for President Biden to "provide the necessary support for American enterprises to deliver Internet service to the Cuban people." Senator Rubio and other Republican politicians agree and Commissioner Carr assured us that "we have the technical capability to do this."

When asked about the technology in a subsequent interview, Commissioner Carr reasserted his confidence that we could do it, but said he didn't "want to get too bogged down in the particulars of that because my sense is there's going to be other technologies that I'm not aware of, including from DOD or CIA, that can also help facilitate this." I'll try to keep an open mind when read about those DOD and CIA technologies but, for now, I don't see how it can be done. 

A Cuban agent with a seized antenna
disguised as a boogie board

I've seen suggestions that it could be done using forthcoming low-Earth orbit satellite constellations like SpaceX Starlink, but there are problems with that. Earlier attempts to smuggle in end-user terminals by Alan Gross and others disguised as surfing equipment have failed spectacularly. (Gross spent five years in prison). Furthermore, they would have been inconsequential drops-in-the bucket had they succeeded. Finally, if we could get even one Starlink terminal into Cuba, would SpaceX would be willing to flaunt international law and connect to it without Cuban permission?

Another "solution" is to deploy balloon-based mobile phone towers in the stratosphere, creating an alternate cell phone company that could use Cuban mobile phones. Do they have the technology to do that? How about getting SIM cards for the "US BallonNet" mobile phone company into Cuban handsets? 

If they did get SIM cards to the people, what about radio interference with Cubacel's terrestrial towers? I'm not a lawyer, but transmitting without Cuban permission sounds like a violation of international law or at least custom, but that wouldn't bother Commissioner Carr because he "doesn't care." In a recent interview, he said "The pinheads at the ITU (UN International Telecommunication Union) will likely view this as a violation of international law. So we need to stand up the support of the federal government to do this." (Ex-FCC Chairman Pai also participated in the interview).

Others have suggested that we offer support for the Psiphon VPN service. I believe we are already doing that and on July 15 nearly 1.4 million Cubans used Psiphon. Psiphon support was a good idea.

How about hotspots near the US Embassy or using wireless backhaul from offshore? How many people would a hotspot reach and how long would it take the Cuban government to arrest them?

From Eisenhower's embargo to the Bay of Pigs invasion to Trump's trade, financial, and tourism restrictions and declaring Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism, the hard-line has failed to dislodge the Cuban regime.

What might work

President Obama spoke to the
Cuban people.

In spite of its apparent impossibility, the call to "beam the Internet to the Cuban people" puts President Biden in a political bind. He has responded by stating that he is "actively collaborating with the private sector to identify creative ways to ensure the Cuban people have safe and secure access to the free flow of information on the Internet." While it may not be possible to achieve that goal using technical subterfuge, there is another possibility -- he can go over the heads of the Cuban leaders and make well-publicized offers of assistance to the Cuban people. Let me outline two such offers.

Smuggling SpaceX Starlink terminals into Cuba is a dead end, but SpaceX offering service in Cuba would be possible if both SpaceX and the Cuban government would agree to do it. I suspect that iconoclastic Elon Musk would be willing -- it would be good business and good karma. 

Díaz-Canel and ETECSA executives would be a harder sell. Diplomacy and a well-publicized offer that was visible to the Cuban people would put pressure on the Cuban regime. If the campaign succeeded and Starlink became available in Cuba, it would benefit the people and therefore, in the long run, relax the grip of the Cuban regime. 

Cuban backbone network 

An undersea cable connecting the US and Cuba would also improve the Cuban Internet. Today the vast majority of Cuba's international Internet traffic is carried on the ALBA-1 undersea cable at the southeast end of the island, far from Havana and other population centers to the west. There have been at least half a dozen proposals to connect Cojimar, near Havana, to Florida. Doing so would provide backup in case of a temporary problem on the ALBA-1 cable, cut average latency time on international links, and, most important, reduce the load on Cuba's terrestrial backbone, saving terrestrial infrastructure investment.

The most recent of these proposals was for a branch from the ARCOS undersea cable to a landing point at Cojumar. The ARCOS consortium applied for permission on July 23, 2018, and the application was approved for "streamlined processing procedures" -- 45 days -- by the FCC. It had still not been acted upon when it was withdrawn without comment on October 20, 2020. 

President Biden could authorize the re-activation of the ARCOS application, and, if it is no longer on the table, a suitable alternative could be found. There was also talk at one time of eventually turning the undersea cable running from our base at Guantánamo to Florida. That could also be done, although a cable landing near Havana would be more valuable.

One last Internet-related item. While The President lacks the authority to fire FCC commissioner Carr, he should call for his resignation. A US official advocating violation of international law is embarrassing and Putin-worthy.

Before concluding, allow me a quick digression. Improving the Internet is a long-run project, but the pandemic requires immediate action. President Biden should immediately remove any supply chain and financing barriers impeding Cuba's ability to acquire, manufacture and distribute COVID 19 vaccine and related medical equipment.

The US has been trying to overthrow the Cuban government for over 60 years at great cost to us and the Cuban people. The hard-line strategy was initiated by President Eisenhower during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. His fear of the Soviet Union was based upon profound personal experience as the general who led the allied invasion of Europe and watched the Iron Curtain fall

When he ran for president, Eisenhower had two slogans -- "I like Ike" and "It's time for a change." Today, the Soviet Union has collapsed and our current global rival, China, is eating our lunch in Cuba. It's time for a change in our Cuba Internet strategy.

SpaceX's Starlink service in Cuba would benefit the Cuban people, SpaceX, and the US.

SpaceX has begun the process of securing licenses to operate its Starlink Internet service in the Caribbean. I don't know which nations they are considering, but would advise them to seriously consider Cuba -- Starlink service in Cuba would benefit the Cuban people, SpaceX, and the US.

What's in it for Cuba?

Fixed home and commercial connectivity in Cuba are limited, slow, and expensive, but they do have shared connectivity -- 1,095 pubic WiFi hotspots and 346 public access rooms with a total of 1,304 computers. They also have 1,057 GSM, 2,611 UMTS, and 768 LTE cell towers.

I can't imagine Cuba permitting SpaceX to serve consumers, but Starlink could provide backhaul to cell towers, WiFi hotspots, and public access rooms in unserved areas. Cuban health care and education are arguably the best in the region and one can imagine every rural school and clinic connected to Starlink. Imagine providing those clinics with access to the resources at Cuba's globally-recognized health portal Infomed, which has been online since 1992.

The Cuban revolution sought to find a just urban/rural balance and years later the Internet reflected that. I did a study of the Internet in Cuba in 1998 and observed that relative to other developing nations, the Cuban Internet was geographically dispersed. Internet connectivity was only available in the capital city in 29 of the 44 African nations with Internet connectivity, whereas Infomed had a presence in every Cuban province and Cuba's 150 (at the time) Youth Computer Clubs, which provided computers for games and classes for young people and adults, had accounts in nearly every municipality. (The study is not cleared for publication, but I can send you a copy if you are interested). Starlink connectivity would help to achieve that sought-after just balance -- to shrink the digital divide.

Fidel Castro spoke at the opening of the Youth Computer Club headquarters in
Havana. His framed, handwritten inscription reads "I am jealous". (Source) 

What's in it for SpaceX?

Trained, demanding users are necessary for Internet growth, and with a population of over 11 million well-educated people -- about 25% of the Caribbean region -- Cuba has pent-up demand for Internet access. Furthermore, in spite of limited access to the global Internet, Cubans have had access to the domestic intranet at Youth Computer Clubs, school, and work and, recently, Internet access at the public access locations mentioned above.

Cuba also has the technical and content expertise needed to install and utilize enhanced connectivity. With little Internet connectivity, Cubans have improvised, developing

• A thriving blogging community that has evolved into what Cuba-media scholar Ted Henken refers to as a "rich variety of independent digital journalism projects."
• An entrepreneurial software startup community.
• Self-employed computer programmers.
• El Paquete Semanal (the weekly package), a compendium of news, entertainment, and software that has been distributed on hard and flash drives throughout the island for a decade by a well-organized, decentralized sneaker-net that is possibly the largest private employer in Cuba.
• Hacker-built community networks including SNET in Havana which was the world's largest community network not connected to the Internet before it was taken over by the government.

Cuban ground stations could serve
much of the Caribbean

Cuba would also be a good location for Starlink ground stations serving Caribbean nations and ships in the Caribbean sea. One could be located at the ALBA 1 undersea cable landing point at Siboney Beach at the south-east end of the island. I have also argued that there should be another one 480 miles away at Cojimar, near Havana. I'm not kidding myself that anyone will pay attention to my recommendation, but someday there will be a cable landing near Havana and that would be a logical place for a second ground station. (Note that there is an existing Google Global Cache site in Cuba and a satellite ground station in Jaruco, about 25 miles from Havana, which was the site of the original Soviet Carib 1 ground station in 1974 and is now the site of the SES O3b middle Earth orbit (MEO) ground station).

What's in it for the US?

President Biden has promised to "reverse the failed Trump policies that inflicted harm on Cubans and their families” and a Starlink presence in Cuba would be a noteworthy step toward fulfilling his promise.

Cuba's first connection to the Internet was as a participant in the National Science Foundation (NSF) International Connectivity Program (ICP), which connected research and education networks in many developing nations. The NSF provided Cuba and other nations connectivity to The US NSFNET, which was the major global backbone at the time. The link from Cuba to Florida was provided by Sprint and Cisco provided routers.

US and Cuban policy quickly closed the door on US-Cuba networking and collaboration and China filled the vacuum. Today, Huawei is the dominant provider of Internet infrastructure from the national backbone to the WiFi hotspots and even the central office equipment used in Cuba's lame DSL home connectivity offering. They also sell phones in Cuba. If the Biden administration would cooperate and SpaceX was willing, Starlink could provide a crack in China's dominance in Cuba. If Cuba does not go with Starlink, they have a number of non-US alternatives including SES, which currently provides MEO connectivity, Telesat, and OneWeb, but the most likely provider is China's GW constellation.

DSR IT infrastructure projects as of 12/2018 ( source)

Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated recently that China poses a threat to the current international order and is America's "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century." The foreign relations impact of Starlink in Cuba would be more important than opening a market for a single US company. The US embargo is unpopular in most Latin American and Caribbean nations and a Starlink presence in Cuba would improve our standing. It would also be a roadblock in the way of Chinese expansion of the "Digital Silk Road" portion of their global Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

There is a good chance that he would be turned down, but I hope Elon Musk takes a shot at offering Starlink in Cuba. Hopefully, he would have the support of the Biden administration as well as Google, a SpaceX investor that has been persistently active in Cuba since 2015. Cuba has gone its own way since 1958 and that has been good and bad, but it means that Cuba is somewhat unique and we could all benefit from improved access to Cuban art, science, medicine, music, etc. Starlink in Cuba would be a win for the world.

A simple suggestion for President Biden regarding the Cuban Internet

President Biden has a lot on his plate, but having someone pursue a Cuban undersea cable would be simple and benefit both Cuba and the US.

The Cuban backbone (source)

Last September I asked what had happened to the proposal for a branch connecting the ARCOS undersea cable, which has a landing point in North Miami Beach, to Cojimar, Cuba. The consortium that operates the cable had applied for permission to connect Cuba in July 2018 and the FCC granted a request for streamlined processing, which should have taken less than 45 days, but nothing happened until September 2020 when the application was referred to a Justice Department committee for the assessment of foreign participation in the telecommunication services sector, that Trump had established in an executive order on April 4, 2020.

On October 26, 2020 -- shortly before the election -- the application was withdrawn without explanation. I asked the FCC officials involved why the processing had taken so long and why the application was withdrawn, but received no answer. I also filed Freedom of Information Act Requests with the FCC and Justice Department, but my questions were not answered. (Justice did not even reply).

But that is history -- spilled milk. During the campaign, President Biden said he would "try to reverse the failed Trump policies that inflicted harm on Cubans and their families" and he has taken steps to liberalize travel and remittances. He has a lot on his plate beside Cuba, but having someone pursue a Cuban undersea cable would be simple and benefit both Cuba and the US.

The first step would be to contact the operators of the ARCOS cable to see if they are still interested in the Cuban branch. If not, other options should be pursued. Daniel Sepulveda, who was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and U.S. Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy, in the Obama administration said there were at least a half-dozen proposals — from US and non-US companies — to construct a north-south undersea cable between the US and Cuba. There had also been discussion of one day allowing Cuban access to the US cable at Guantanamo, GTMO-1.

An undersea cable to the US would be a boost to the Cuban Internet. Nearly all Cuban international traffic is carried over the ALBA-1 cable, which lands at the south-east end of the island so traffic from heavily populated areas like Havana must traverse the national backbone. An undersea cable from Cojimar, which is near Havana, would reduce latency, free backbone capacity, save capital investment and provide a backup path in case of an outage.

Note that even Trump would agree with this proposal. His policy was to "amplify efforts to support the Cuban people through the expansion of internet services" and he directed government departments and agencies "to examine the technological challenges and opportunities for expanding internet access in Cuba." He also established a task force "to examine technological challenges and opportunities for expanding internet access in Cuba" and did nothing to reverse any of President Obama's Cuba telecommunication policies.

President Biden might be concerned that such a move might be politically damaging since Cuban-American voters in Florida favored Trump in the last election, but that is not a sure thing. The 2020 Florida International University Cuba Poll showed that among south Florida Cubans, young people are most liberal on issues like the embargo and all except those over 75 consider Cuba policy less important than the economy, health care, race, immigration, and China policy. Demographics and Trump's impeachments may have shifted Cuban voting patterns by 2022 or 2024.

Supporting an undersea cable between the US and Cuba would also enhance our reputaion in the region and encroach upon China's near monopoly as a vendor of Cuban Internet infrastructure. It would also strengthen the US's strategic position vis-a-vis China's expansion in the region.

President Obama sought rapproachmont with Cuba and several Internet-related proposals followed, but the result was disappointing. Trump and Raúl Castro are now ex-presidents so the ARCOS cable may stand a chance. (It would not be unprecedented -- Cuba's first connection to the Internet was through the US National Science Foundation International Connections Program for research and university networks in developing nations).

Update 4/5/2021

In March 2019, Google and ETECSA signed a memorandum of understanding committing to cost-free interchange of traffic between their networks once Cuba was able to connect to a new undersea cable that would be laid, presumably to Miami "sometime in the future." That cable has not yet been laid and I got no answer when I asked Google what the project status was last week.

Google has persisted in an effort to improve Cuban Internet connectivity and access for years but the effort has yielded very little. They have installed Google Global Cache servers in Cuba, enabling ETECSA to serve some Google content from within its own network, and established one public WiFi hotspot.

There were hopes for progress when President Obama visited Cuba, but the Cuban government under Raúl Castro was unwilling and Díaz-Canel was met by Trump. President Biden has a lot on his mind these days, but I hope Google is hanging in.

President Díaz-Canel, The Cuban Internet is more than Facebook on a cell phone -- don't be afraid of it.

The Internet could and should be controlled and used to serve peace and development.
Ramiro Valdés Menéndez, Cuban Minister of Informatics and Communications, 1997

Ramiro Valdés Menéndez

As a result of Internet service interruption during the recent anti-government protests in Cuba, Florida Senator Rubio and Governor DeSantis and President Biden have called for measures to strengthen and guarantee Cuban Internet connectivity, but that won't happen until the Cuban government recognizes that doing so is in its long-run interest.

I have seen several suggestions that we smuggle end-user satellite terminals from services like SpaceX Starlink into Cuba, but attempts to smuggle in end-user terminals by Alan Gross and others disguised as surfing equipment have failed spectacularly. Furthermore, they would have been inconsequential drops-in-the bucket had they succeeded.

However, if the Cuban government would permit it, SpaceX service in Cuba would benefit the Cuban people and, in doing so, strengthen the position of the Cuban government.

There have also been several proposals to provide undersea cable connectivity to Cuba. The most recent one was killed in the US, but I'm confident that President Biden would support it (or another one) if the Cuban government would permit it.

I served on the advisory subcommittees to the Cuban Internet Task Force, and made a number of recommendations for facilitating Cuban Internet connectivity. Again, none of these proposals would work without the support of the Cuban government.

The Cuban government was frightened by the role mobile phones, running communication and social media applications, played in the protests, but mobile apps are one small part of the full Internet. Widespread fixed broadband connectivity via satellite and improved cable capacity would have positive effects on the economy, education, healthcare, entertainment, etc., thereby enhancing the government’s standing with the people.

Fidel Castro opens the Youth Computer Clubs.

When the Internet first came to Cuba, there was a high-level debate on its risks and rewards. Ramiro Valdés Menéndez, then Minister of Informatics and Communications, is often quoted as calling the Internet "the wild stallion of the new technologies" and a potential tool for "global extermination," but he went on to say it "could and should be controlled and used to serve peace and development." Fidel Castro also recognized the potential upside of the Internet and supported the establishment of Youth Computer Clubs throughout the nation. (They were networked using pre-Internet technology.)

The same debate took place in China around that time, and they decided on a robust but controlled Internet. It would be great if the US could convince the Cubans that the Chinese and Valdés were right. If we cannot, the Chinese, with their own satellite and cable projects, may.

Cuban fake news about some fake news

Four CITF winners (source)

When the Cuba Internet Task Force (CITF) was established, it was touted as being formed for the benefit of the Cuban people, but that was fake news.

Granma recently posted a Trump-worthy article charging that the U. S. finances mercenary groups and gives scholarships to train young Cubans as fake leaders in a dirty Internet war on Cuba. The article also alleges that activists who live in Florida, Texas, Tennessee and Georgia have tried to manipulate Cuban opinion on the constitutional referendum using the hashtag #YoVotoNo on Twitter and it claims we do similar things in Iran and Bolivia.

I am not sufficiently naive to think that the US has never meddled with the Internet in Cuba and have blogged extensively about the Alan Gross case, Zunzuneo and the attempted smuggling of satellite receivers disguised as surfing equipment, but the claims made in this article are bogus. It is telling that there there are no links in the story -- nothing to substantiate any of the claims -- and I have first-hand knowledge of the central claim that:

In February of 2018, the so-called Cuba Internet Task Force was created, following instructions outlined in a Presidential memorandum on national security, released June 16, 2017. The website Razones de Cuba has documented that the CIA’s Political Action Group and institutions on the task force have highly qualified specialists who, based on models previously developed through Big Data, sent sector-specific messages to Cubans.

The CITF established two subcommittees, one to explore and develop recommendations on the role of the media and the free, unregulated flow of information through independent media in Cuba and the other to explore and develop recommendations for expanding Internet access in Cuba. I attended the first meeting of the Internet-access subcommittee, participated in the online discussions of both and reviewed and commented on their draft recommendations.

The Task Force Final Report is short -- only 1,904 words on 6 double-spaced pages. (This post is 631 words). It consists of a summary of the state of the Cuban Internet and regulatory policy followed by nine fairly obvious, tersely stated recommendations. I am unaware of any impact it has had on U. S. or Cuban action or policy.

The CIA and its Political Action Group (PAG) are not mentioned in the report and were never mentioned during the discussion leading up to it. No form of cyberattack or propaganda was discussed by the Task Force or called for in the final report. In short, this was a bland report and the Task Force was a show for Florida voters.

The quote regarding the CIA and PAG are taken from the English language version of the story. It is noteworthy that it has been edited out of the Spanish, French, German, Italian, and Portuguese versions. Each version credits the same author and I reached out to him asking about this but did not receive a reply. Furthermore, the article credits the Razones de Cuba Web site with having documented this CIA PAG meddling. I searched their Web site for terms like Grupo de trabajo, grupo de tarea and and 1984, but got no hits.

You get the picture -- the CITF did not work with the CIA and this Granma article does not document any of the charges it makes. In fact, it includes no links or quotes -- just assertions. When the CITF was established, it was touted as being formed for the benefit of the Cuban people, but that was fake news. It was a political move, intended to give Trump a boost in Florida. It also provided Cuba with propaganda fodder for articles like this one and strengthened the economic and political ties between Cuba and Russia and China.

NY Times editorial on the Internet in Cuba

The New York Times has published an editorial call to "bring Cuba online." they say "millions of Cuban citizens could have affordable access to the Internet in a matter of months" if only the government were willing to allow Google to go forward with a Project Link installation or invite companies to bid on mobile licenses, as was done in Myanmar.

I appreciate their goal, but there are stumbling blocks and problems with their proposal.

Google made an unspecified proposal to build Internet infrastructure in Cuba, but some in the Cuban government did not trust Google's representatives. The Times suggests Google's Project Link, which has been implemented in Kampala and Accra, as a model, but Project Project Link only provides a wholesale fiber backbone in a city, not national, retail coverage -- and it would take more than a few months to implement.

The editorial also ignores the interests of ETECSA, the Cuban telecommunication monopoly. If ETECSA's goal is to maximize profit or government revenue, Cuba will fall short of the vision of the Times. (I speak from the experience of being a customer of a monopoly Internet service provider, Time Warner Cable).

They also overlook Cuban commitments to and history of doing business with Chinese telecommunication firms.

Even if the government were willing, inviting in Google or accepting Myanmar-like bids for mobile licenses, would limit Cuban technology and, more important, policy choices. Cuba has an opportunity to leapfrog technology and implement policies that will benefit the Cuban people.

I am not optimistic that that will happen, but it is possible that after 2018, when Raúl Castro has retired and the Cuban economy has improved, Cuba will have the funds and will to implement a uniquely Cuban, modern Internet.

-----
Update 12/9/2015

Norges C. Rodríguez Almiñán has written a thoughtful blog post, inspired by this New York Times editorial.

He starts by surveying Cuba's history of the supression of free expression and communication technology and recalls Cuba-US conflicts from the Bay of Pigs to ZunZuneo with events like the Cuban Missle Crisis and downed aircraft in between. There are bad deeds all around.

In spite of this, we have December 17th, progress is being made and Rodríguez says it is time for Cuba's digital revolution. Better yet, he promises that in his next post he will suggest steps to take on the road to Cuban connectivity -- I can't wait to read it!

Connecting Cuban Schools

Cuba plans to provide Internet connectivity to all schools at all levels during the next three years. We offer a few suggestions, based in part on the US experience of the 1980/90s.

Fernando Ortega, Director of Educative Informatics Services at the Cuban Education Ministry, has announced a plan for connecting Cuba's 295 high schools and 395 polytechnic institutes to the Internet during the next school year. During 2017 they plan to extend the education network to junior high schools, day-care centers and special schools and in 2018 the network will connect the remaining primary schools. They hope to connect 26,650 teachers to the Internet by next May.

This is an encouraging announcement, but it leaves many policy and technical questions unanswered, like:

• Will the schools be connected to the international Internet or the Cuban intranet?
• If connectivity is international, will it be over the undersea cable or satellite?
• If the link is to the Internet, will sites be filtered out?
• Will users be surveilled and tracked?
• What will be the backbone technology and speed?
• How fast will the backhaul links to the schools be?

Regardless of the answers to these questions, a school backbone and connectivity to it is only a small part of the networking of schools. What about school LANs? Curriculum? Teacher training and student expectations? Cuban schools are facing the same questions US schools and universities faced when first connecting to the Internet -- can they benefit from our experience?

In the late 1980s, the National Science Foundation connected all US colleges and universities to the Internet. (They also connected networks in many developing nations, including Cuba). They did this by establishing a backbone network (NSFNet) and gave each school a router and paid for a link to the backbone. That cost the US taxpayers $94.5 million, but it was just seed money.

The schools spent much more collectively -- hiring network technicians, building local area networks (LANs), buying computers and incurring overhead on all of that. Could Cuba do something similar -- connect schools to an education backbone and leave the rest to the schools themselves?

I reviewed the curriculum of Cuba's University of Information Science in a report I wrote in 2011. Compared to the US, the curriculum was relatively practical and it involved working on real-world projects. If the government of Cuba were to construct an educational backbone and provide a high-speed connection to each school, advanced university students could be deployed to schools where they would lead the installation of LANs by the students and faculty of the schools. (Note that idealistic, motivated graduate students implemented much of the ARPANet).

This decentralized, do-it-yourself approach was used in networking California high schools. Sun Microsystems founder John Gage led the NetDay initiative in which equipment kits were assembled and distributed to schools for installation by students and faculty under the supervision of professionals. In a similar effort, my students established a wireless LAN connecting the rooms in our campus dorms to out campus backbone.

There was a major change between the time of John Gage's NetDay project and my student's dorm connectivity project -- WiFi equipment became available, making our task easier. Necessity being the mother of invention, it turns out that Cuba has experts in the deployment of modern WiFi LANs -- the people who have created mesh "streetnets". Cuba might also take a look at Google's experiments with high frequency wireless communication. Sun Microsystems is not longer with us, but might Google sponsor a Cuban NetDay?

A Cuban "NetDay" project would establish a LAN at relatively low cost and also provide initial training and involvement for the people who would eventually run and use the LAN.

What about computers? Mr. Ortega reports that there are about 30 students per computer in Cuban school labs and his plan is to replace them with tablets. I would think twice about those tablets.

Los Angeles, where I live, recently cancelled an ill-advised project, which sought to deploy tablets in schools. The project envisioned a large expenditure for tablets that would quickly become obsolete. Furthermore, machines with keyboards, and perhaps touch screens, would be more appropriate. Today, the best bet for most students and many teachers would be Chromebooks and, where necessary, laptops. One Laptop per Child has distributed laptops to over 2.4 million children -- how about One Chromebook per Child in Cuba? (Is anyone at Google reading this)?

But the biggest problem with the failed deployment in Los Angeles was not sub-optimal hardware, it was in software and curriculum. The tablets were to come with installed teaching materials provided by a single vendor. The tablets were "Trojan Horses" for the curriculum.

I would worry about something similar happening in Cuba -- top-down design and distribution of teaching material by experts at the Ministry of Education. Cuba has developed some educational software, but it is limited in scope and quantity and, more important, not Internet oriented. We are in the midst of a boom in MOOC-inspired online education and innovation in curriculum, technology and pedagogy. Cuba should look to the outside (the Khan Academy in Spanish would be a good place to start) and also encourage decentralized domestic development -- perhaps providing a hosted, Spanish-language "YouTube" for teaching material using Google and MIT's open source MOOC.org platform. (Better yet, that should be hosted by Google).

Without answers to the questions I raised at the start of this post, one cannot say what will happen with Cuba's school network. I've assumed the best intentions on behalf of the Cuban government and thrown out some relatively low-cost ideas, some of which were helpful in getting US schools online. Let's hope Cuban kids are enrolling in MOOCs and working their way through Khan Academy material before too long.

Welcome home Alan Gross!

I've been quite busy since the release of Alan Gross, so have not taken the time to comment on it on this blog.

I've been following his story on this blog -- both the technology and the politics -- for several years, and I am very happy to end that thread!

I'm also happy that his release has removed an obstacle to the normalization of relations between the US and Cuba -- that will benefit the Cuban people and the Cuban Internet.

This may or may not be the end of Alan Gross's involvement with the Internet in Cuba -- he is clearly an advocate of Internet freedom and a friend of the Cuban people.

I hope he adjusts quickly to his freedom and am looking forward to hearing more from him if he cares to share his experience.

Cuba remains analog in a digital world

This is a guest post by Google Policy Fellow, journalist and PhD student Olga Khrustaleva. Olga’s dissertation is on the Cuban Internet and she wrote the following after a research trip last year. I was surprised to learn that one can get black market cable TV in Havana and extent to which people are reselling ETECSA WiFi connections using Ubiquity Nano routers (as opposed to local hotspots using Connectivity software on laptops) in spite of their being illegal.

Raul announces death of Fidel, video

I was in Cuba when Fidel Castro died. That evening we went to bed early and were about to turn the lights off when my partner heard our upstairs neighbor tell her husband that the leader of the Revolution had passed. Neither of us could believe it and my partner shouted loudly:

-          Murio Fidel?

-          Si, the neighbor shouted back.

We turned the TV on and after a regular and uninterrupted newscast Raul Castro made an official announcement.

The apartment building where we stayed in the (quite marginal) neighborhood of Centro la Habana didn’t have glass windows, only wooden shades, so our neighbors’ lives inevitably became a part of ours. One neighbor woke us (and probably the entire house) up every morning shouting the name of the maintenance boy. Another one probably had bronchitis or something worse as she was coughing all day and night long. Some never turned their TV off; others always kept their door open. The night Fidel died everyone was watching the same channel – we could hear the echo of Raul’s voice from all neighboring apartments.

              Unlike the rest of the world that has been digitizing rapidly in the past 20 years Cuba still continues to live in analog mode. It’s much more convenient and customary for many to shout than to make a call or send a costly text. Public phones are still widely used and a phone conversation in Cuba usually starts not with polite “Hola, como estas?” (Hi, how are you?) but with “Dime” (tell me) – right to the point. First it sounded rude to me, but I quickly understood that people here simply can’t afford small talk. From 7 am to 11 pm a minute costs 35 cents, with the average official salary still being about $25 a month. Soon I became used to asking whether the person I was calling on the cellphone wanted to call me back from landline, an offer everyone gladly accepted. 

             

              Tricking the system?

Even with various restrictions at place, Cubans manage to get access to things. Cable TV is illegal, but easy to get for anyone ready to pay 10 CUC a month. The day after Fidel’s death we went to see a lady who changed dollars without the commission charged by official banks. The lady, let’s call her Monica, travelled abroad – to a few countries that still didn’t require visas for Cubans – every month or two to buy merchandise to sell in Havana. When we came by, Telemundo was showing people partying on the streets of Miami. Monica told us that if police saw what they were watching, they could have problems, but on normal days no one really cared much about cable.

The wifi provided by ETECSA is available in public parks, squares and hotels. To access it one needs a card (1.5 CUC for hour) with a user name and password. The first time I went to use wifi at a little park close to my house I was approached by a guy who offered Internet connection for 1 CUC an hour (back in November the ETECSA price was 2 CUC for hour). The park was full of people and few had ETECSA cards. Soon I learned that there were at least four different groups at that park offering Internet access. Each of them used "nanos, Ubiquity NanStations, to create wifi hotspots that shared a single ETECSA connection.

              To run a sub-network the guys logged in using ETECSA cards and then sold the connection to the people in the park. When someone wanted to connect, one of the guys would type in a password on the person’s phone and, when the time was over, delete it. Back in November they paid 2 CUC per hour connecting maybe 10-15 people an hour for 1 CUC. With so many people using the same link, the speed was so bad that sometimes I couldn’t even check email. Yet, many people around me were video-chatting using an app called IMO (Skype and several other popular apps doesn’t work in Cuba). Several people I met had nano stations (which are sold for around $200 in Cuba and for $50 on Amazon) in their homes in Havana so that they could use Internet without having to go to a park or hotel.

              I briefly talked to Ricardo (name changed), one of the guys who ran one of the sub-networks. He said they had the nano in the car parked nearby and that they had to be careful because there were cameras in the park and if the police saw them with someone else’s phone they could have problems. “Recently they took [to the police] some guys for sitting on the back of the bench,” Ricardo said. “And next day we went out to work a bit nervous.”

              Recently ETECSA lowered the price to 1.5 CUC for hour, but my guess is that the sub-networks will continue to exist as they benefit both, the guys who sell access as well as people who get the opportunity to connect to Internet paying less. ETECSA and the government likely are aware of the sub-networks, which exist in almost every park or square with ETECSA wifi, but tolerate them. Like El Paquete, this wifi businesses doesn’t present any danger to the government. The main connection is still managed by ETECSA, with access to some websites blocked and the majority of people are connecting to communicate with their families abroad, but they may worry that they are losing revenue.

The case for making 3G mobile Internet access free in Cuba

The economic and social benefits of free 3G Internet connectivity would easily outweigh the cost.

Last week ETECSA began offering 3G mobile access to Cuba's national intranet and the global Internet and President Diaz-Canal tweeted the news:

His tweet has received 216 comments so far and reading through them, many are effusively positive, like:

"This is without a doubt a breakthrough that will benefit millions of Cuban families!! Congratulations!!" and "Excellent news comrade!"

Others were critical, noting that the prices are high relative to Cuban incomes (one said "absurd") and the technology is obsolete -- "Congratulations, but they're 20 years late."

I cannot agree with the de rigueur/obligatory congratulations -- third generation mobile is over 15 years old, only 66% of the population is covered, the price is very high relative to Cuban salaries (access to the national intranet is cheaper than global Internet access) and performance is unknown -- but this is a faltering first step and, like WiFi hotspots, street nets, El Paquete Semanal, navigation rooms and home DSL, it should be seen as an interim, stopgap measure. Hopefully, the Cuban Internet will eventually leapfrog over current technology to next-generation technology -- in the meantime stopgaps are better than nothing.

The next stopgap goal should be to make ubiquitous 3G mobile Internet access free -- like free streets, sidewalks, education, etc. Doing so would create a nation of trained, demanding users leading to the development of innovative, practical applications.

ETECSA, Cuba's government monopoly ISP and phone company, may complain that they do not have the infrastructure to support the traffic that free 3G would generate and can not afford to build the capacity. I have no information on the specifications of the 3G base stations they are installing, but it is probably safe to assume that there is spare capacity since 3G data rates are far below those of today's LTE technology. (A friend just told me that he was seeing 1 Mbps in Havana).

The traffic from free 3G would also require backhaul capacity from the base stations and that can be provided by satellite as well as terrestrial fiber and wireless infrastructure. Cuba currently uses SES's O3b (other three billion) medium-Earth orbit (MEO) satellites for international connectivity and they could also use the O3b network for mobile backhaul. (Note that O3b capacity will increase dramatically in 2021).

O3b is operating MEO satellites today, and they will be joined in the early 2020s by low-Earth orbit satellite constellations from SpaceX, OneWeb and Telesat, which are also potential mobile backhaul providers.

Both ETECSA and the Cuban society can justify the investment needed to provide free 3G Internet access. Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, coined "Metcalfe's Law" saying that the effect of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users. While not a precise mathematical statement, there can be no doubt that the effect of a network on society and its value to whoever owns it increases rapidly as it grows.

As noted, 3G technology is obsolete and one day Cuba will be rolling out modern technology. When they do, people who have been using 3G will understand its value and the value of the applications they have been using and many will be willing to migrate to and pay for faster service.

In addition to trained users, free 3G would generate application developers and Internet entrepreneurs. They would develop 3G applications and content for Cuba and other Spanish speakers around the world and would transition to modern infrastructure when it becomes available.

I've been talking about free 3G from the standpoint of ETECSA and application developers and Internet entrepreneurs, but consider the social benefit of reducing the digital divide and improving government, education, health care, entertainment, tourism, finance, and other businesses, etc.

This has been a back-of-the-envelope case, but it seems clear that the economic and social benefits of free 3G Internet connectivity would easily outweigh the cost. Let's flesh the proposal out.

There is no Cuban home Internet plan -- and that's good news.

I've followed Cuba's home-connectivity "plan" from the time it was leaked in 2015 until the recent Havana home Internet trial. I thought the plan was a bad idea when it was leaked -- it calls for installation of obsolete DSL (digital subscriber line) technology -- and now that the Havana trial is complete, I question whether the plan was real.

ETECSA denied the validity of the leaked presentation at the time and their definition of "broadband" was "at least 256 kb/s." Furthermore, the goal was stated as "Alcanzar para el 2020 que no menos del 50% de los hogares disponga de acceso de Banda Ancha a Internet." My Spanish is not very good, so I am not sure whether the plan was for connectivity in 50% of homes or connectivity being available to 50% of homes. Either way, slow DSL will be a joke in 2020.

But, the free home-connectivity trial in Havana used the DSL technology described in the leaked plan -- might it be for real? I don't think so.

During the free trial, 858 of the 2,000 of eligible Havana homes tested the service and as of April 14, there were 358 paid subscribers. I've also heard that around 12 homes have been connected in Bayamo and the same was going to happen in Santa Clara and Las Tunas. If this home connectivity roll-out has been planned since 2015, why is it going so slowly? Why aren't other parts of Havana open? Why aren't they doing large-scale trials in Bayamo, Santa Clara and Las Tunas?

The quality of a DSL connection is a function of the length and condition of the telephone wire running between a home and the central office serving it. If ETECSA had really planned to bring DSL to many Cuban homes, they would have understood the necessity of investing heavily in wiring as well as central office equipment.

My guess is that the Havana trial and the installations in Bayamo, Santa Clara and Las Tunas are not part of a national home-connectivity plan, but ends in themselves -- interim measures aimed at bringing slow DSL connectivity to small businesses and self-employed people in the most affluent parts of selected cities. That makes more sense to me than a plan to spend a lot of money upgrading copper telephone wires and central office equipment in order to be able to offer obsolete connectivity to 50% of Cuban homes by 2020. (I've always hoped Cuba would leapfrog today's technology, opting for that of the next generation).

If the DSL "plan" was never a plan, what might we expect? (The following is highly speculative).

My hope is that Cuba regards efforts like home DSL, WiFi hotspots, Street Nets and El Paquete as temporary stopgap measures while waiting for next-generation technology. If that is the case, we might see progress when Raúl Castro steps down next year.

Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, who is expected by many to succeed Castro, acknowledged the inevitability of the Internet in a 2013 talk, saying "today, news from all sides, good and bad, manipulated and true, or half-true, circulates on networks, reaches people — people hear it. The worst thing, then, is silence." (I think Donald Trump may have been in the audience :-).

In a later speech, Díaz-Canel recognized that the Internet is a social and economic necessity, therefore the government has the responsibility of providing affordable connectivity to every citizen, but there is a caveat -- the government must be vigilant in assuring that the citizens use the Internet legally. Here is a clip from that speech:

In 1997, the Cuban government decided that the political risk posed by the Internet outweighed its potential benefit and decided to suppress it. At the same time, China opted for a ubiquitous, modern Internet -- understanding they could use it as a tool for propaganda and surveillance. It sounds to me like Díaz-Canel has endorsed the Chinese model and will push for next-generation technology with propaganda and surveillance.

(Again, my Spanish is not so great and I may have mischaracterized Díaz-Canel's statements. I would welcome other's reactions to the clip shown above or other statements he has made).

If Cuba does decide to install next-generation technology, can they afford it?

I can't be certain, but I doubt that they have the expertise or the money to quickly deploy a next-generation Internet.

Cuba has many information technologists who have become proficient at improvisation and working with outdated technology. I expect that they can quickly learn to work with modern technology if it is available.

Funding is tougher. Cuba is a "green field" and a timely move to modern infrastructure will require their being open to foreign investment and partnership, which may be a hard sell for Díaz-Canel or whoever replaces Castro. They need to adopt next-generation regulation and infrastructure ownership policy if they are to obtain next-generation technology. That will not be easy, but there are cultural and historical reasons to believe that Cuba may be able to do so. (If they succeed, we can all learn from them).

Who might Cuba partner with?

As a customer of an Internet service provider (ISP) that has a monopoly in my neighborhood, I fully understand the pitfalls of the wrong partner and would be cautious in dealing with large ISPs. I don't know who the likely vendors will be, but Google has the inside track. (Huawei is well established in Cuba, but is more narrowly focused than Google).

Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt traveled to Cuba in June 2014, accompanied by Brett Perlmutter, who is now their Head of Cuba Strategy & Operations. Google's progress has been slow, but they seem to be patiently investing in relationships for the long haul. Their most technically significant achievement has been securing permission to install servers that cache their content on the Island, but their production of a tribute to Cuban arts and culture on their online Cultural Institute, including the following VR video on Jose Marti, may be more important for its political and cultural significance:

Google has much to offer Cuba -- experience with fiber infrastructure in developed and developing nations, content development and future technologies. Perhaps more important, they can profit by simply having more users in Cuba without having to sell them service or equipment -- they can profit by collaborating with ETECSA rather than competing with them.

Cuba should consider other partners, but Google seems to be in a strong position. As Perlmutter said when asked about home connectivity in a recent intverview, “We’d love to do that. We’ve put everything on the table and I’m really optimistic about this because everything is still on the table. We’re holding talks and discussing all these matters.” (For a Spanish version of the interview, click here).

Perlmutter also said that "ETECSA has a plan and our goal is to work hand in hand with them and assist them with the vast experience we have piled up around the globe doing this same thing.” It doesn't sound like the plan is to bring 256 kb/s DSL to Cuban homes.

Granma says IT is now a priority -- is this true change?

An article in Granma says the "informatización" of society is a priority for Cuba.

They say the 154 public "navigation" rooms were a trial balloon -- it is not clear whether they were referring to the technology or public acceptance -- but evidently they have been pleased with the results.

At one point, the article refers to the "information superhighway" -- an expression that seems as dated as the Cuban Internet.

They say Cubans will not only "drink" from the Internet, but will contribute content -- putting the best of Cuban of culture, education, knowledge and humanism on line. As I have suggested, online education and medical information would be a good place to start.

The article speaks of the ongoing, gradual implementation of 26 projects, but it is not clear what sorts of projects they refer to. One concrete promise is the expansion of public access rooms in libraries and post offices. They will also be rolling out digital television.

If they are sincere, they should consider satellite connectivity as a low-cost, interim option and follow up on that friendly visit from Google a while ago. I would also keep an eye on Elon Musk's satellite plans.

If we are going to see a new era in Cuba's attitude toward the Internet, policy considerations are more important than technology -- the goal is to benefit the Cuban people, not the government, ETECSA (or AT&T). Cuba is nearly an "Internet greenfield" -- there is little installed infrastructure so they could plan on future technologies, look for expertise around the world and set goals that are uniquely Cuban.

This article appeared around the same time as an official presentation on technology to students at the University of Havana. I am not enough of a "Cuba watcher" to have an opinion as to whether this signifies a true change -- I hope it does.

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Also see this post.

A letter to my state security officer (if I have one)

Someone commenting on a previous post suggested that because of this blog, he is sure that I "already have a Security State Official."

If that is the case, let me start by saying "hello" to my security official.

The comment implied that you are watching me because you oppose what I post. If that is the case, you are in good company, because the older Cuban expatriates in the United States also oppose what I post.

A colleague from Radio Marti once told me that he knew he was doing his job well if both sides were angry with him. I guess I am doing my job well.

I hope you will take the time to read what I have posted on this blog and written elsewhere carefully. I trust that you will find much that you agree with and much that you disagree with. The world is grey, not black and white. There is good and bad on both sides.

One thing should be clear -- I watched and was moved by the founding of the Cuban Internet, and my motivation is for the Cuban people and the ways in which the Internet can benefit them.

Well, if you are reading this, it is good to know you. Please feel free to comment on anything you read here or on Google Plus or my other blogs.

If you are ever in Los Angeles, please visit me!

Larry Press

Questions raised by the takeover of SNET, Havana's community network

Last May, Cuba's Ministry of Communication (MINCOM) announced resolutions 98 and 99 limiting wireless transmission power and outdoor cables that made community networks like Havana's SNET, illegal. Since SNET was the world's largest community network that did not have Internet access, implementation of the resolutions was postponed for 60 days for negotiations between SNET administrators and MINCOM. The negotiations have ended with a decision to transfer SNET's services and content to ETECSA, Cuba's government-monopoly ISP, and to provide access through Cuba's nationwide chain of 611 Youth Computer Clubs (YCCs), as illustrated by the diagram shown here.

The new regulations authorize people to install WiFi equipment in their homes and businesses in order to access the YCCs, represented by the blue building, and public WiFi hotspots, represented by the sunny outdoor location. The diagram also shows cables running from the YCCs to larger buildings that may represent ETECSA data centers, wireless Internet points of presence and homes with DSL connectivity.

The government says SNET "will grow with the increased infrastructure” of the YCCs and ETECSA and claims that the intent of Resolutions 98 and 99 is to expand Internet access, but many in the SNET community fear losing access to and control of the assets they have created. You can see their point of view by searching Twitter for the hashtags #YoSoySnet and #FuerzaSnet. The protesters (and I) have many questions about the takeover, like:

• While some testing has begun, this conversion will take time and resources -- why not allow parallel operation of SNET during the cutover to ETECSA/YCC?
• How many homes are close enough to connect to current WiFi hotspots and YCCs?
• Given the current planned infrastructure expansion, how long will it take to re-connect all current SNET users?
• How many of the 611 YCCs have fiber links and what is the schedule for connecting the others?
• Are rooftop and other outside antennas legal (MINCOM FAQ 18)?
• Will wireless network installer be added to the list of self-employment occupations (MINCOM FAQ 19)?
• What provisions are being made to extend connectivity to community network members in smaller cities, outside of Havana?
• SNET offers many services in addition to gaming -- social networking (similar to Facebook), FTP (file transfer) for content sharing, live music streaming, software for download, and forums for developers and engineers, poetry, literature, comics, and sports. Will all of the current SNET services and content be supported?
• Was the ETECSA/YCC migration anticipated and planned for during the drafting of resolutions 98 and 99?
• Were SNET and YCC representatives consulted or involved in the drafting of resolutions 98 and 99?
• There has been some dissension among SNET administrators in the past -- was this agreement approved unanimously?
• In Spain, the UK, Argentina, and other nations, the decision was made to cooperate with and support community networks -- to treat them as cooperatively-owned Internet service providers. Did MINCOM consider that alternative and, if so, why was it rejected?
• Some SNET members have been detained and threatened for voicing opposition to the takeover of the network -- are those reports accurate?
• What will ETECSA/YCC charge for access to former SNET services?
• Did MINCOM do a cost/benefit analysis of the conversion?
• Will former SNET members be compensated in any way for their investment in equipment or time in creating intellectual capital in the form of content, software or communication infrastructure?

SNET was a Cuban success story -- a user-owned and operated cooperative that developed infrastructure, applications, and content. SNET and the other Cuban community networks may have connected as many homes as ETECSA's home DSL service, Nauta Hogar. Cuba's community networks also developed human capital -- experienced users and technicians who, in the long run, benefit both ETECSA and society.

Skeptics see this takeover as confiscation of community assets rather than an effort to better serve the public. Transparent answers to these and related questions could ease their concerns and I hope ETECSA and the JCCs are able to quickly deliver on their promises.

A conference Cuban networking officials and informal networkers should attend -- meet MikroTik

MikroTik is manufacturer of wireless communication systems that ETECSA, the Ministry of Communication, schools, universities, Infomed, etc. should be aware of. They will have a chance to meet MikroTik at a full-day conference in Havana on January 15th. (The conference is free, but pre-registration is required).

I had never heard of MikroTik until they informed me of the upcoming conference. It turns out MikroTik is a Latvian company that has been making WiFi equipment since 1996 and, while they have some home and small office routers, their focus is on wireless ISP and industrial installations.

As shown below, they have world-wide distribution (they run conferences in 8 languages), but have focused much of their effort in developing nations:

MikroTik distributors -- in Havana one day?

After looking at some videos of past conferences and perusing their Web site, it is clear that MikroTik is an engineering-driven company and attendees can expect engineering and case-study content at the conference. Here are some of the presentations:

• Como evitar los ataques de seguridad más frecuentes
• Integracion de Mikrotik en la implementacion de WISP
• Ingenieria de Tráfico con Mikrotik
• Internet en alta mar - conectividad, seguridad y prevención de averías solucionados con Mikrotik
• Alimentacion autónoma y control de clima para equipamiento inalámbrico
• Estudio sobre pruebas de estrés en una red Wireless 802.11a/b/g/n

They do a lot of these conferences and archive videos of the presentations on YouTube. For example, here are the 12 presentations at their conference in Spain this year.

MikroTik conference in Madrid, October 2015

I began this post with a list of government organizations that might be interested in MikroTik, but this conference will also be of interest to the hobbyists and others who are working on informal local area networks and members of the Cuban tech startup community.

I have argued in a number of posts that Cuba should look for ways to introduce competition in the provision of Internet connectivity and software development, while remaining self sufficient. The same applies to the provision of equipment. From what I gather, it seems that Huawei is Cuba's dominant infrastructure equipment supplier -- the government and perhaps the informal networking community should take a look at MikroTik.

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Update 2/1/2016

The MikroTik wireless Internet users meeting was held on January 15th, but the location was moved at the last minute. Regardless, Diario de Cuba reported that 100 people attended the conference.

They said the majority were Street Net adminstrators, but representatives of foreign firms, embassies and non-governmental organizations were also there. There were also attendees from universities (UCI and CUJAE), Banco Popular de Ahorro, the Youth Club, Copextel. customs officials and network specialists from the Ministry of Telecommunications.

Cuba should consider MikroTik offerings along with Ubiquity, Huawei and others -- fair, open competition will benefit the people.

If you missed the conference and have Internet access, you can see videos of five of the presentation here. Two on operating a wireless ISP and one on rural Internet installation in Portugal and Guinea Bissau seem to be quite relevant to Cuba.

Below are a few photos from the conference and there are more here.