"We were just trying to get Alan Gross out of prison at first" Ben Rhodes, Obama Administration Cuba negotiator
Crooked Media, which was created by three senior Obama White House staff members, produces several excellent (pro-Democratic) podcasts. One of those is PodSavetheWorld, hosted by Tommy Vietor, who spent nearly a decade as a spokesman for President Obama, specializing in foreign policy and national security issues.
Two episodes of PodSavetheWorld include interviews with high-level Obama staff members who were involved in forming our Cuba policy. The following describe and link to exceprts from those interviews.
The first excerpt is from an interview of Dan Restrepo, who served as a top Latin America advisor to President Obama. Restrepo had written a Cuban-rapprochement roadmap for candidate Obama during his first campaign and he returned to the topic in 2013. He says Obama was playing a "long game," knowing that his executive authority was limited and he could not move faster than US public opinion. Restrepo characterizes Obama's strategy as a bet that by creating a degree of freedom among the Cuban people, for example by expanding reparations and undermining Castro's excuse of blaming all problems on the Evil Empire, the Cuban government would be forced to change. He noted that the blame-US game was a hard sell after the Cuban people saw the Evil Emperor, who looked more like them than the current Cuban leaders, giving a speech on TV or at a baseball game with Raúl Castro.
The excerpt (14:20) is here and the full podcast (48:37) here.
The second excerpt is from an interview of Ben Rhodes, who served as a speechwriter and emissary for President Obama and was one of two White House staff members handling the negotiations leading up to our opening with Cuba. Rhodes and his colleague Ricardo Zuniga traveled to Canada for 12-15 secret meetings with Cuban representatives while working out the rapprochement details. At the start, they were only negotiating for the release of Alan Gross because Obama reasoned that rapprochement would be politically unacceptable if Gross remained in a Cuban prison. Early in the negotiation for Gross, they realized more was possible and the scope of the discussion broadened. Only a few people in the White House knew of these negotiations, but the Vatican was informed early and played a key role. (If you are unfamiliar with the Alan Gross case, click here).
The excerpt (11:30) is here and the full podcast (1:00:48) is here.
President Obama meeting with Cuban entrepreneurs last March
Shortly before President Obama went to Cuba last March, I wrote a post on Internet-related announcements that might be made during the trip. It was pure speculation -- things like a Havana-Florida undersea cable or copyright and cyber-security agreements, significant infrastructure deployment -- and none of it happened.
Google's wireless connectivity is the biggest disappointment. I've speculated on significant infrastructure and content investments Google could conceivably make in Cuba, but all they announced was a single WiFi hotspot at the studio of Cuban artist Kcho. Google supplied 20 Acer Chromebooks and a number of Nexus 5 phones with Cardboard viewers, and got a lot of publicity in return. Perhaps this is a necessary relationship-building step (Kcho is well connected), but in itself this hotspot is less than a drop in the bucket -- 99% hype and 1% substance, like Kcho's previous hotspot.
How about the deal with Stripe and their Cuban partner Merchise? In March, I contacted Merchise and Stripe to learn more about their business relationship. Merchise had nothing to say about their relationship with Stripe and Stripe said "Merchise is a partner in the the Stripe Atlas Network ... it isn't so much that we expect them to represent or market Stripe in Cuba; rather, if they know any specific entrepreneurs or businesses in Cuba for whom Stripe Atlas would be helpful, as a Network partner they can refer those entrepreneurs to us for early access to the Atlas program."
Last week, I asked Stripe if anything had come of the partnership to date and was told they had no concrete updates, but they had "been in touch with many Cuban entrepreneurs." I also asked Cisco about the status of and plans for their Cuban project, and was told that at this time they had nothing to add to what was said in the blog post announcing the relationship last March.
So far, nothing concrete and significant has come of the Internet projects Obama announced.
In addition to these announcements, The President met with Cuban entrepreneurs who described their businesses and briefly discussed them with him. During the meeting, he also introduced AirBnB co-founder Brian Chesky, praising him as a successful Internet entrepreneur and a role-model for young Cubans.
President Obama has continued his emphasis on entrepreneurship, most recently hosting 11 young Cubans at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit.
I've written about Cuban tech startups and support them wholeheartedly, but President Obama's upbeat tone overstates their potential impact. Internet companies focused on the Cuban market will not make a significant contribution until Internet access and the economy are improved considerably. Even then, no company will come close to the success of AirBnB with its $24 billion valuation without global reach. There is a potential market for Cuban educational and entertainment content and network services in Spanish-speaking nations, but Cuban entrepreneurs will not be able to go after those opportunities without major policy changes.
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Update 6/30/2016
I heard from the Merchise Startup Circle with respect to their Stripe partnership. They confirmed that they do not represent Stripe or sell Atlas membership -- their role as a member of the Stripe Network is to refer potential customers to Stripe. They are not alone in this -- they are one of over 100 incubators, accelerators, investors, and others who can refer top global entrepreneurs to the program. They do not receive a commission for the referrals and they do not hold equity in the enterprises they refer. Their payment is the satisfaction of supporting and encouraging the Cuban startup community. That is consistent with the tone of their meetings and their academic roots.
As mentioned above, Stripe says they have been in touch with many Cuban entrepreneurs and I bet most of them were referred by Merchise.
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Update 11/4/2016
This is not directly related to the Internet, but it is yet another disappointment after announcing optimistic plans for US entrepreneurs to work with Cuba.
There were important financial and university-related announcements.
Last month, I speculated on possible Internet-related announcements that might be made in conjunction with the visit of President Obama. Nothing I mentioned came up, but let's look at what was announced just before and during the President's visit.
Cuban origin software is now authorized for importation into the United States.
Non-immigrant Cuban nationals in the United States will be permitted to earn a salary or compensation consistent with their visa status. U.S. companies are now also authorized to sponsor or hire Cuban nationals to work or perform in the United States.
The same week Verizon announced an agreement to provide direct telephone connections to Cuba. That is nice, but it does not provide Internet connectivity. There were rumors that AT&T would make an announcement during the visit, but, as far as I know they did not.
During the visit, several further developments were announced.
Silicon Valley payments startup Stripe will make it possible to give Cuban entrepreneurs access to the US financial system. Cubans will be able to incorporate a US company, set up a US bank account, and start accepting payments from the US. Stripe will be working with the Merchise Startup Circle, which has been working to form and facilitate a Cuban startup community. Again, the ball is in Cuba's court. Will they allow self-employed workers or cooperatives to open those accounts?
Google tech center -- not sure what it will provide. Photo by Ramón Espinosa/AP
The most widely publicized announcement was that Google would offer free, high-speed Internet access to Cubans at a technology center belonging to the Cuban artist Kcho. The center will also have laptops, Google Cardboard and phones.
The announcement referred to 70 mbps speeds and 40 simultaneous users, but it is not clear whether those users will each have 70 mbps or they will be sharing it. I have asked Google for clarification, but have not received a response.
If it is shared, it will be similar to their current hotspots, but free. If it is per user, it will be inspirational and novel and there will be very long lines waiting to get in.
Regardless, like Kcho's earlier free access over DSL, it is a drop in the bucket and to a great extent a publicity stunt. That being said, both the President and Google executive Brett Perlmutter implied that this was just Google's first foray into Cuba and they hoped to announce more in the future.
President Obama announced a $1 million fund for US-Cuba academic partnerships. The impact of this program will not be immediate, but it is important. Today, the few Cuban students with Internet access have slow connections and tight usage caps. Imagine the reaction of a Cuban exchange student in a computer lab in a US university with gigabit connectivity. Similarly, what insights might come from the exposure of a US student to the constraints on and innovations by Cubans?
Cisco training at UCI may foreshadow competition for Huawei.
A university was also involved in what may have been the most important announcement. Last January, a high-level US delegation travelled to Cuba. At that time, Cisco proposed the establishment of a Cisco Academy training and certification program at Cuba's prestigious University of Information Science. The proposal has been accepted.
This is great news and it implies a Cuban willingness to be open to competition in the infrastructure market. In the early days, Cisco equipment was used in Cuba, but today Huawei is dominant. Cisco-certified graduates will be ready to work with Cisco equipment.
Now, if Cuba would also be willing to allow competition in the Internet service market ...
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April 17, 2016
A special edition of Cuba's weekly sneakernet, El Paquete Semanal, contains full coverage of President Obama's trip to the island. The distribution features coverage of the his speeches, his press conference with Raúl Castro, a short documentary on his life and his and his comedy skits with Cuban comedian Pánfilo.
You can see the comedy sketches below, but neither is a threat to Saturday Night Live.
This week, the Cuban government gave some dissidents one-time permission to travel abroad. I suspect that gesture was related to President Obama's upcoming visit and expect to learn of other agreements when he visits Cuba next month.
I asked a Cuban colleague what concessions he thought might be announced and he mentioned further easing of travel, increased incentives for US investment and a compromise on debt claimed by the US for nationalized property and by Cuba for the cost of the embargo. He did not think Guantánamo would come up, even though President Obama is trying to close the prison. (It seems he was right).
Might there be some Internet-related announcements?
How about an undersea cable from Havana to Florida? Daniel Sepulveda, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and US Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy, led a high-level delegation to Cuba in January. Upon his return, he said there are at least a half-dozen proposals — from US and non-US companies — to construct a cable between the US and Cuba.
An undersea cable connecting Havana and Florida would provide backup for the current Cuba-Venezuela cable, add capacity and reduce latency. More important, it would reduce the load on Cuba's national backbone.
Nearly all of Cuba's international Internet traffic is carried over the undersea cable between Cuba and Venezuela. The cable landing is at the east end of the island but most of the traffic is from Havana and other cities to the west, so a cable from Havana to Florida would reduce the need for investment in backbone capacity. (There is also an undersea cable from Guantánamo to Florida, but that remains in US hands and also lands at the east end of the island).
The Cuban government says the Internet is a priority and the US is no longer standing in the way of Internet infrastructure investment. The ball is in Cuba's court and a cable from Havana to Florida would save Cuban investment. This is something ETECSA can and should do on behalf of the Cuba people, even if it requires foreign partnership (for which there is precedent) or subsidy to attract capital.
Copyright is another Internet-related issue. Cuba's "Weekly Package" of entertainment and software is viable because the content is pirated. The government has turned a blind eye toward the organization that compiles and distributes the material because the people want entertainment and need software and there is speculation that it may be Cuba's largest private employer.
Last summer, I asked a senior State Department spokesman whether copyright violation had come up during discussions with the Cubans and he said "no." Might some compromise on copyright have been reached since then?
Today, US content providers are getting nothing from the Cuban distribution of entertainment and software -- something would be better than nothing. The Cuban government likes the Weekly Package because it entertains the people, provides private employment and is a distribution channel for software. Perhaps an agreement could be reached in which Cuba pays small, affordable royalties today with a promise of increases over time in return for dropping prior copyright violation claims.
Another possibility -- an announcement involving Sprint or another wireless carrier. I've noted some of the things Sprint has going for them, but it may not be enough to overcome Cuban reluctance or Chinese competition.
This is all speculation and probably none of it will come to pass (on this trip). That being said, I expect some progress will be announced -- it will be interesting to see what it is.
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Update 2/28/2016
This post on Cuba, the US and cybersecurity (in Spanish), points out that the US and China have an agreement on cybersecurity and there have been cybersecurity discussions between the US and Cuba. Might there be a cybersecurity announcement during President Obama's trip to Cuba?
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Update 3/9/2016
Reuters reports that the administration will announce easing of restrictions on travel and trade before the President's trip to Havana later this month. The report says nothing of the Internet-oriented announcements that I speculated on. It also says about 20 members of Congress will accompany the President and pointes out that several legislators, including Democrats, have criticized the President for continuing to make unilateral concessions to Cuba.
Believe it or not -- there is bipartisan support for bill in the U. S. Senate.
The dueling bills are:
The Cuban U.S. Claims Settlement Act:
U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and David Vitter (R-LA) have introduced legislation that would require Cuba to address unsettled and unpaid legal claims with the U.S. before easing restrictions on travel and trade with Cuba.
Versus
The Cuba Digital and Telecommunications Advancement Act (DATA):
U.S. Senators Tom Udall (D-N.M.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) have introduced bipartisan legislation that would enable U.S. telecommunications and Internet companies to provide their services and devices in Cuba.
And
On December 17, 2014, the Whitehouse published a fact sheet called Charting a New Course on Cuba saying that "Telecommunications providers will be allowed to establish the necessary mechanisms, including infrastructure, in Cuba to provide commercial telecommunications and Internet services, which will improve telecommunications between the United States and Cuba."
I am no politician, but here are a couple observations.
DATA is a way better acronym than CUCSA
The DATA act sounds redundant, but the next president or the courts could reverse President Obama's Cuba policy.
The Helms-Burton act prohibits "the investment by any United States person in the domestic telecommunications network within Cuba."
The appropriations bill released on Tuesday would restrict funds to facilitate the opening of a Cuban embassy in the United States, increase democracy assistance and international broadcasting to Cuba and provide direction to the State Department on denying visas to members of the Cuban military and Communist Party.
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Update 6/5/2015
The House of Representatives has passed a transportation funding bill that includes a provision to reverse the Obama administration's easing of restrictions on travel to Cuba -- travellers would again require a license from the Treasury Department as they had in the past.
The Republican rationale is that portions of the Havana airport were expropriated by Cuban government. The White House has threatened to veto the bill, in part because of the Cuba-related provision.
I don't know what all the transportation bill deals with, but it is surely a lot more than just this "poison pill" issue.
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Update 6/12/2015
U.S. Senators Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and Angus King (I-Maine) have introduced legislation to restore trade with Cuba. The Cuba Trade Act of 2015 (S. 1543) would grant the private sector the freedom to export U.S. goods and services to Cuba while protecting U.S. taxpayers from any risk or exposure associated with such trade.
The senators seem to have different motivations for sponsoring the bill. Senator Moran is attracted to the bill by the possibility of exporting Kansas farm and ranch produce to Cuba and Senator King is worried about the growing influence of China in Cuba.
Three visiting U.S. senators said on Saturday they hoped Congress would support President Barack Obama's opening toward Cuba, including lifting a ban on U.S. citizens traveling to the Communist-run island.
Democratic Senators Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Ben Cardin of Maryland joined Republican Dean Heller of Nevada on a trip to Cuba where they met First Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez and ordinary Cubans.
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Update 7/20/2015
Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D. and Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., on Monday announced they will introduce the Cuba DATA Act, a bill that would enable U.S. telecommunications and Internet firms to offer more services in Cuba. We now have versions of the Cuban DATA Act before both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
A bill with bi-partisan support is unusual, but this one is not surprising since 2/3 of the US public favors ending the embargo. (These bills stop short of repealing the embargo -- they seek to exempt a single industry).
The Senate Appropriations Committee voted to allow Americans to travel to Cuba and to block enforcement of a law prohibiting banks and other U.S. businesses from financing sales of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba. Four Republicans joined the 14 Committee Democrats in an 18-12 vote.
Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy said "This is a first step by the Senate to dismantle a failed, discredited and counterproductive policy that in 54 years has failed to achieve any of its objectives ... These votes were not about the repugnant policies of the Castro regime, but about doing away with unwarranted impediments to travel and commerce imposed on Americans by our own government."
A growing number of lawmakers from both parties have taken promising steps in that direction in recent weeks. Representatives Tom Emmer, Republican of Minnesota, and Kathy Castor, Democrat of Florida, introduced a bill in the House last week that would lift the embargo. Earlier last month, the Senate Appropriations Committee passed amendments that would allow American citizens to travel to Cuba freely and ease some commercial interactions.
A Pew Research Center poll released on July 21 showed that 72 percent of Americans support ending the embargo against Cuba, up from 66 percent in January.
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Update 8/12/2015
A new Pew poll shows US support for ending the Cuban embargo has climbed to 77% and 76% of the Latin Americans polled agree.
But, they are not certain that Cuba will become more democratic:
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Update 10/21/2015
Nine US governors have called for an end to the embargo -- and two of them are Republicans. This seems to be the only issue with any bi-partisan support in the US congress. I guess these folks are thinking about both doing business with Cuba and public opinion (see poll results above).
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Update 1/13/2016
President Obama called for an end to the Cuban trade embargo in his State of the Union address. The American public also favors ending the embargo and this is one of the few (only?) issues with some bi-partisan support, so it is conceivable that he will get his wish.
