Cuba's (hopefully limited) ADSL expansion

Home ADSL is less important than other interim, stopgap measures like WiFi parks and El Paquete Semanal.

In 2015, ETECSA announced/leaked a plan to make ADSL service available in 50% of Cuban homes by 2020. I was skeptical. Doing so would mean investing a lot of money for obsolete technology between 2015 and 2020.

They just announced the availability of ADSL connectivity at homes in portions of seven cities and, by December, they say some home connectivity will be available in every province.

ETECSA first tested, then offered ADSL service in Old Havana. Only 600 customers opened accounts after the test period, leading me to speculate (and hope) that the ADSL project would end given the low acceptance rate. I was wrong, but I still don't think ADSL will or should reach anywhere near 50% of Cuban homes.

Let me digress a bit to explain why I think ADSL is a bad idea. ADSL requires a telephone line from one's home to a phone company central office where the DSL equipment is installed and the central office needs a fast enough connection to the Internet to handle the traffic of all the customers it serves. Deteriorated wiring, a long distance from a home to the central office or a lack of backhaul capacity from the central office to the Internet reduce connection speed.

For example, in my neighborhood Frontier offers ADSL service at speeds ranging from 1.61 Mbps to 6 Mbps. (The FCC defines "broadband" as 25 Mbps or more). My home is about two miles from my central office and it was built just after World War II, so the fastest speed they can offer me is 3 Mbps. That has not changed since I discontinued ADSL in the 1990s. ADSL technology has improved since that time, but Frontier has not invested in new equipment because their ADSL service is clearly inferior to that offered by cable TV companies.

Perhaps ETECSA has a commitment to their DSL equipment vendor, Huawei, or they are able to make a profit serving a few customers at the high prices they are charging today, but I can't imagine them making a large investment in this technology. (see prices below).

I don't have the details, but my guess is that only a few central offices will be equipped for ADSL in each new city and a relatively small number of people in served neighborhoods will choose to pay the prices they are charging for home Internet service. (I wonder what percent of their current Havana and Bayamo customers are businesses or homes of people who rent rooms or work at home).

As such, I don't see this slow, expensive, restricted service as very important. It should be considered an interim, stopgap measure, like WiFi parks or El Paquete Semanal, while ETECSA plans "leapfrogging" to next-generation technology and, more important, regulation and infrastructure ownership policy in the 2020s.

Cities served, prices and connection speeds

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Update 10/4/2017

ETECSA has released details on their recent ADSL expansion. There are answers to 85 frequently asked questions including this list the popular councils in which ADSL is available:

ADSL is now available in portions of 16 popular councils in addition to previous availability in Havana and Bayamo. Around 600 homes have subscribed in Havana.

In 2016 there were 764 central offices in Cuba (719 of them digital). I don't know if some central offices serve homes in more than one popular council or if there are some popular councils served by more than one central office, but even with this expansion, ADSL is only available to and affordable by a small portion of Cuban homes.

My guess would be that the central offices that have been upgraded to allow for ADSL are in relatively affluent neighborhoods and many subscribers are businesses or people renting rooms in their homes, but that is just a guess and it would be interesting to see a survey of ADSL subscribers.

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Update 10/16/2017

When ETECSA held a home connectivity trial in Havana last year, 868 people participated and over 600 contracted for the service. They are now extending the availability of home connectivity to portions of seven Havana municipalities: La Habana Vieja, Centro Habana, Revolution Square, Havana del Este, San Miguel del Padrón, La Lisa and beach. (It had been available in only two up till now).

Note that all locations in those municipalities will not be covered -- I suspect that is due to distance from an ETECSA central office, a lack of backhaul capacity and/or the poor wiring condition.

They also announced a home service price cut -- 15 CUC for 30 hours per month will now get you 1 Mbps instead of 256 kbps. (The release said 1 megabyte, but I suspect that was a typo).

Perhaps ETECSA is able to recover the cost of their DSL and infrastructure investment at the speeds and prices they are offering, but this is clearly not the path to widespread home connectivity.

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Update 10/17/2017

ETECSA has released the number of Nauta Hogar subscribers outside of Havana: 232 in Pinar del Río, 225 in Holguín, 134 in Guantanamo, 79 in Granma and 142 in Las Tunas. Most of those are 1 or 2 Mbps.

With a reported subscriber count of 600 in Havana, this brings the total number of homes with ADSL connectivity to a little over 1,400. As of 2015, there were 996,063 residential phone lines in Cuba. They clearly can not and should not count on using ADSL to reach the 50% availability level mentioned above.

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Update 12/26/2017

Last week, ETECSA announced the availability of DSL connectivity to 821 potential clients in Santiago de Cuba, a city with a population of 433,527 in 2015. The announcement singles out two neighborhoods, so I suspect that two central offices were upgraded to offer DSL service and evidently only 821 homes have good enough copper wiring to receive data from them at 4 Mbps. (There are 719 digital central offices in Cuba).

It is telling that they proudly announce such a modest achievement -- reminiscent of the coverage of Kcho's WiFi hotspots. (I'm tempted to mention Donald Trump at this point, but will resist the temptation).

Last May, ETECSA announced the goal of being able to offer 38,000 home DSL accounts. I doubt that they came close to that goal. The goal for 2020 is to offer connectivity to 50 percent of Cuban homes. As of 2016, there were 1,322,002 residences with fixed phone service in Cuba. Their goals are not achievable and, as I stated above, that is good news. At the price ETECSA is charging, very limited DSL coverage may pay for itself or make a little profit, but it is only a temporary stopgap for very few people.

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Update 12/30/2017

ETECSA is offering their Nauta Home DSL service in Camagüey. It looks like three central offices are able to offer DSL and this map shows the approximate areas they serve, presumably at up to 4 Mbps. For reference, the road shown around Camagüey is about 18.5 miles long.

DSL Internet available in some Bayamo homes

Nahta home user in Havana (source)

In February, I heard that ETECSA was testing home DSL in Bayamo. They are now offering the same home DSL plans in Bayamo as in Havana.

The announcement said that, as in Havana, access would be limited to homes within a limited area -- probably within a specified distance from the central office(s) that are equipped for DSL. I have heard about similar projects underway in Santa Clara and Las Tunas, so we can expect the service to eventually be rolled out to limited areas there as well.

ETECSA says they will be making this service available in 38,000 homes during 2017. If they are serious about their avowed plan to make DSL available to 50% of homes, they have a long way to go (but I doubt they are serious about doing so).

There is no Cuban home Internet plan -- and that's good news.

I've followed Cuba's home-connectivity "plan" from the time it was leaked in 2015 until the recent Havana home Internet trial. I thought the plan was a bad idea when it was leaked -- it calls for installation of obsolete DSL (digital subscriber line) technology -- and now that the Havana trial is complete, I question whether the plan was real.

ETECSA denied the validity of the leaked presentation at the time and their definition of "broadband" was "at least 256 kb/s." Furthermore, the goal was stated as "Alcanzar para el 2020 que no menos del 50% de los hogares disponga de acceso de Banda Ancha a Internet." My Spanish is not very good, so I am not sure whether the plan was for connectivity in 50% of homes or connectivity being available to 50% of homes. Either way, slow DSL will be a joke in 2020.

But, the free home-connectivity trial in Havana used the DSL technology described in the leaked plan -- might it be for real? I don't think so.

During the free trial, 858 of the 2,000 of eligible Havana homes tested the service and as of April 14, there were 358 paid subscribers. I've also heard that around 12 homes have been connected in Bayamo and the same was going to happen in Santa Clara and Las Tunas. If this home connectivity roll-out has been planned since 2015, why is it going so slowly? Why aren't other parts of Havana open? Why aren't they doing large-scale trials in Bayamo, Santa Clara and Las Tunas?

The quality of a DSL connection is a function of the length and condition of the telephone wire running between a home and the central office serving it. If ETECSA had really planned to bring DSL to many Cuban homes, they would have understood the necessity of investing heavily in wiring as well as central office equipment.

My guess is that the Havana trial and the installations in Bayamo, Santa Clara and Las Tunas are not part of a national home-connectivity plan, but ends in themselves -- interim measures aimed at bringing slow DSL connectivity to small businesses and self-employed people in the most affluent parts of selected cities. That makes more sense to me than a plan to spend a lot of money upgrading copper telephone wires and central office equipment in order to be able to offer obsolete connectivity to 50% of Cuban homes by 2020. (I've always hoped Cuba would leapfrog today's technology, opting for that of the next generation).

If the DSL "plan" was never a plan, what might we expect? (The following is highly speculative).

My hope is that Cuba regards efforts like home DSL, WiFi hotspots, Street Nets and El Paquete as temporary stopgap measures while waiting for next-generation technology. If that is the case, we might see progress when Raúl Castro steps down next year.

Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, who is expected by many to succeed Castro, acknowledged the inevitability of the Internet in a 2013 talk, saying "today, news from all sides, good and bad, manipulated and true, or half-true, circulates on networks, reaches people — people hear it. The worst thing, then, is silence." (I think Donald Trump may have been in the audience :-).

In a later speech, Díaz-Canel recognized that the Internet is a social and economic necessity, therefore the government has the responsibility of providing affordable connectivity to every citizen, but there is a caveat -- the government must be vigilant in assuring that the citizens use the Internet legally. Here is a clip from that speech:

In 1997, the Cuban government decided that the political risk posed by the Internet outweighed its potential benefit and decided to suppress it. At the same time, China opted for a ubiquitous, modern Internet -- understanding they could use it as a tool for propaganda and surveillance. It sounds to me like Díaz-Canel has endorsed the Chinese model and will push for next-generation technology with propaganda and surveillance.

(Again, my Spanish is not so great and I may have mischaracterized Díaz-Canel's statements. I would welcome other's reactions to the clip shown above or other statements he has made).

If Cuba does decide to install next-generation technology, can they afford it?

I can't be certain, but I doubt that they have the expertise or the money to quickly deploy a next-generation Internet.

Cuba has many information technologists who have become proficient at improvisation and working with outdated technology. I expect that they can quickly learn to work with modern technology if it is available.

Funding is tougher. Cuba is a "green field" and a timely move to modern infrastructure will require their being open to foreign investment and partnership, which may be a hard sell for Díaz-Canel or whoever replaces Castro. They need to adopt next-generation regulation and infrastructure ownership policy if they are to obtain next-generation technology. That will not be easy, but there are cultural and historical reasons to believe that Cuba may be able to do so. (If they succeed, we can all learn from them).

Who might Cuba partner with?

As a customer of an Internet service provider (ISP) that has a monopoly in my neighborhood, I fully understand the pitfalls of the wrong partner and would be cautious in dealing with large ISPs. I don't know who the likely vendors will be, but Google has the inside track. (Huawei is well established in Cuba, but is more narrowly focused than Google).

Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt traveled to Cuba in June 2014, accompanied by Brett Perlmutter, who is now their Head of Cuba Strategy & Operations. Google's progress has been slow, but they seem to be patiently investing in relationships for the long haul. Their most technically significant achievement has been securing permission to install servers that cache their content on the Island, but their production of a tribute to Cuban arts and culture on their online Cultural Institute, including the following VR video on Jose Marti, may be more important for its political and cultural significance:

Google has much to offer Cuba -- experience with fiber infrastructure in developed and developing nations, content development and future technologies. Perhaps more important, they can profit by simply having more users in Cuba without having to sell them service or equipment -- they can profit by collaborating with ETECSA rather than competing with them.

Cuba should consider other partners, but Google seems to be in a strong position. As Perlmutter said when asked about home connectivity in a recent intverview, “We’d love to do that. We’ve put everything on the table and I’m really optimistic about this because everything is still on the table. We’re holding talks and discussing all these matters.” (For a Spanish version of the interview, click here).

Perlmutter also said that "ETECSA has a plan and our goal is to work hand in hand with them and assist them with the vast experience we have piled up around the globe doing this same thing.” It doesn't sound like the plan is to bring 256 kb/s DSL to Cuban homes.

The Cuban home-connectivity trial ends this week, rollout to begin next week

The free home-connectivity trial in Old Havana will end this week. Two thousand homes were eligible for the trial and I was told, off the record, that 700 people have signed contracts to pay for the service. I am not certain, but my guess is that those two thousand homes are served by a single central office that has been upgraded to offer Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) connectivity. (The revised contract count is lower -- see the 5/1/2017 update below).

I don't see home-connectivity prices on the ETECSA Web site yet, but I've been told off the record that the prices will be:

15 cuc 30 horas, 256 kb/s
30 cuc 30 horas, 512kb/s
45 cuc 30 horas, 1mb/s

The Web site Cibercuba says the prices will be approximately:

15 cuc 30 horas, 256 kb/s
50 cuc 30 horas, 512kb/s
70 cuc 30 horas, 1mb/s
115 cuc 30 horas, 2mb/s

Both sources agree that users will be required to recharge at least once per month, so these are minimum monthly charges and neither says whether unused hours will accumulate or be lost. I also assume that the speeds quoted are for downloading data from the Internet and that the upload speed is slower -- that the DSL links are asymmetric.

Regardless of which estimate, if either, is correct, the prices are high relative to Cuban incomes and the service is slow by today's standards. I was surprised to hear that 700 of the 2,000 eligible homes signed service contracts after the Old Havana trial. Some of the 700 customers may use the Internet for room rental or some other form of business to offset the cost. I recall parts of Old Havana as having stores and businesses, but am not familiar with the specific area in which the trial was held. (The revised contract count is lower -- see the 5/1/2017 update below).

I've also been told that starting next week, connectivity will be offered in Bayamo and Santa Clara -- I don't know how many central offices are in those cities, but my guess is that they will start with densely populated areas. I'm also unsure whether they will give a two-month free trial, as they did in Havana, or will charge from the start.

These installations are consistent with the home-connectivity plan that was leaked in June 2015. That plan promised to make home Internet connectivity available to 50% of Cuban homes by 2020. If the acceptance rate of 700 out of 2,000 homes were to hold up, 17.5% of Cuban homes would be online by the end of 2020. (The revised contract count is lower -- see the 5/1/2017 update below).

Of course there are many factors that would throw that estimate off. The feasibility and speed of DSL connections is a function of the distance of the home from the central office serving it and the condition of the wiring between the home and the central office. Demographics and incomes also vary. I suspect that the infrastructure in the Little Havana trial area is better than average as are the incomes and degree of familiarity with the Internet.

Regardless, DSL speed ranging from 512 kb/s to 2 mb/s is extremely slow by today's standards. I had 5 mb/s DSL connectivity at my home in the 1990s.

I have consistently suggested that Cuba plan to leapfrog today's technology and consider installing next generation technology if possible. With this DSL rollout, they are recapitulating Internet infrastructure evolution from dial-up, to DSL. (They skipped ISDN :-).

I can only speculate on why they are taking the approach they are. Some would say they are afraid of the political implications of modern Internet connectivity. While that may have been the case at the time the Internet was just beginning, it is now clear that one-party governments like that of China have no problem remaining in power while exploiting the Internet. Bureaucracy may play a role, but I am sure there are people at ETECSA who understand that there are alternatives to DSL. Perhaps they are able to finance the DSL rollout on their own and are unwilling to accept foreign investment. (The role of ETECSA shareholders and their degree of control is unclear).

The end of the Old Havana trial and the availability of home connectivity in two more cities will generate a lot of publicity, but it remains a drop in the bucket if Cuba aspires to a ubiquitous, modern Internet.

Central office equipment upgrade for DSL Internet (source)

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Update 1/3/2017

The Cuba 2.0 blog has done two posts on the home connectivity trial -- here and here. Those posts confirm several of the things I have been told and reported above and add several new observations. For example, some users reported that the service was unreliable, dropping connections and not being able to reach the DNS at times. It is hard to understand why that should be the case since Cuba 2.0 reports that the wiring to premises has been upgraded.

They also confirmed our speculation that the trial took place in atypical parts of the city -- areas with many self-employed people, shops and rooms for rent to tourists. That means we can not expect the same acceptance rate as seen after the end of the trial, pushing the goal of slow DSL connectivity into the distant future -- to say nothing of affordable, modern home connectivity.

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Update 5/1/2017

I had been told that about 700 people had signed up to pay for ETECSA Hogar service but, evidently, that estimate was incorrect. (It may have been an estimate of the number of people using the service during the free trial). ETECSA reports that there were 858 accounts during the free trial period and 358 paid accounts as of March 14th. As shown below, the majority were low-speed accounts.

Source

Old Havana fiber trial to begin August 20th? Many unanswered questions.

Old Havana (red area)

Last February, ETECSA announced a pilot connectivity project in two Havana neighborhoods. The Associated Press report said Cubans in Old Havana would be able to "order service through fiber optic connections operated with Chinese telecom operator Huawei."

I'd not heard anything more about this until the other day when a friend sent me the transcript of a chat between him and someone familiar with the project.

His friend said a two-month free trial will begin August 20th. During that time ETECSA and Huawei will test speed and presumably tune the system. The free trial will only be available in parts of Old Havana and they may be rolling the service out to other areas in 2017, but neither the prices or locations are set.

This leaves many questions. They refer to "fiber-optic connections" -- does that mean fiber to the premises? Fiber/coax hybrid? Fiber/wireless hybrid? How large is the trial? After the trial, where will the service be available? What will it cost? What will the speed be? What are the plans for the possible 2017 rollout? What is the relationship of this project to the earlier plan for providing access to DSL to fifty percent of Cuban homes by 2020? Etc.

We might get answers to some of these questions when the trial ends, but I'm not counting on it.

Here is the transcript of the chat between my friend (YO in the transcript) and his friend (AMIGO in the transcript) who is familiar with the project:

AMIGO:
se va a dar gratis aquí en la Habana vieja
en la parte del casco histórico
rompemos el 20 de agosto
oh

YO:
se va a dar gratis por 2 meses?
ese es el famoso plan piloto…

AMIGO:
Asi es…
estoy completo en eso
aun no se saben los precios
para cuando se vaya a hacer completo pal que lo quiera comprar
ahora se va a dar gratis el montaje y dos meses

YO:
pero en cuba entera o el mismo Habana vieja?

AMIGO:
gratis va a ser solo en la Habana vieja

YO:
dame esos detalles para tirar los chismes en mi blog jejejeejje
AMIGO:
gratis solo en el casco histórico
si claro eso es para probar la velocidad

AMIGO:
más adelante se va a comercializar como un servicio cualquiera
en cuba entera
así es... esto va a ser una prueba piloto para saber cómo se comporta la velocidad y la conectividad

YO:
cojone pero eso será para el 2017
ojala que llegue
AMIGO:
te digo que rompemos el 20 de agosto en la habana vieja

YO:
si pero no eso del plan piloto
sino para la inter que me llegue a mi...

AMIGO:
bueno no se luego de este plan cuando rompen masivo para todo el mundo
eso no se ha definido aun
ni los precios para cuando se vaya a cobrar
seguimos en las mimas

YO: hay que mudarse para la habana vieja

AMIGO:
jajajajaja
tu sabes
déjame redactar un articulito simple, para que los demás no se me vallan adelante con la noticia, tranquilo que la fuente está protegida

Google Translate to English:

FRIEND:
it will give free here in Old Havana
on the part of the old town
we break the August 20
oh

I:
it will give free for 2 months?
that is the famous pilot plan ...

FRIEND:
So is…
I am complete in that
They not yet know the prices
for when you go to make full pal who wants to buy
now it is going to provide free installation and two months

I:
but in whole Cuba or the same old Havana?

FRIEND:
it will be free only in Old Havana

I:
give me those details to pull on my blog gossip jejejeejje

FRIEND:
free only in the historical district
if that's clear to test the speed

FRIEND:
later it will market as a service to any
in whole Cuba
this is ... this is going to be a pilot for how the speed and connectivity behaves

I:
cojone but that will be for 2017
hopefully arrive

FRIEND:
I say we break on August 20 in Old Havana

I:
yes but not that of the pilot scheme
but for inter I get to my ...

FRIEND:
not good then this plan when they break massive for everyone
that is not yet defined
or for when prices go receivable
We continue in mimas

I: we must move to Old Havana

FRIEND:
hahaha
you know
let me write a simple little article, for others not me vallan ahead with the news, assured that the source is protected

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Update 10/27/2016

ETECSSA has announced that the fiber connectivity trial in Old Havana would begin by the end of the year. (I had heard they were planning to begin last August).

The announcement said 2,000 users would be included in the trial. I don't know if that means 2,000 locations or 2,000 people. (There are businesses as well as homes in Old Havana). As far as I know, they have not announced the speed or price during and after the end of the trial or what they hope to learn and what their plans are for future fiber.

There was also a leaked plan to make DSL available to 50% of Cuban homes by 2020 -- I wonder if they are still pursuing that project.

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Update 12/2/2016

A friend told me that a friend of his who works for ETECSA said the fiber trial would begin on December 5. Stay tuned.

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Update 12/19/2016

Etecsa has released some information on their forthcoming fiber trial in Old Havana. The free trial will reach 2,000 homes and last for two months. At the end of that period, home owners will be allowed to pay to continue the service, but the rate was not quoted.

The service will be available to Old Havana homes that already have fixed telephone lines, which means the "last mile" will be ADSL over copper phone wires -- the same architecture that was outlined in a leaked presentation in June 2015. That presentation said that ADSL connectivity would be available to (not necessarily installed in) 50% of Cuban homes by 2020.

They did not release details on speed, cost or data or time caps, but my guess is that they are starting in an area with relatively good phone wiring, making relatively high ADSL speeds possible. (That will not be the case throughout the country).

People who live close to the central office they are connected to and have wiring that is in good condition, might have speeds as fast as 20 mbps, but maximum attainable speed will fall off as distance from the home to the central office increases and wiring condition deteriorates.

This has been called a "fiber" test, so I am guessing that the central office serving these homes has a fiber backhaul link. That raises the next question -- what are the plans for fiber links to other central offices in Havana and throughout the country? I've speculated about fiber in Havana, but have no idea what exists or what is planned.

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Update 12/22/2016

I was conversing with a friend who passed on some information about the home-connectivity trial in Old Havana. He stressed that he could not be sure of what he had heard, so what I am about to say may be incorrect.

Over 100 ADSL accounts have been established and the service will be free for two months.

After two months, the user will be able to subscribe for a one-time charge of 50 CUC and a monthly fee of 30 CUC. The user will get 30 hours of connectivity for that 30 CUC.

The speed will be 256 Kbps downstream and 128 Kbps up, which is very slow. For comparison, the US Federal Communication Commission defines "broadband" as 25 Mbps and my son, who lives in Korea, was paying $22 per month for 100 Mbps up and downstream in 2014.

If 256 Kbps is the downstream speed, using modern Web sites and streaming video will be slow or impossible.

I hope this is incorrect.

In June 2015, we saw a leaked home-connectivity plan that promised much higher speeds.

Why would the speed be so low in Old Havana? Is the central office far away? Are the phone wires old and noisy? Is backhaul from the central office to the Internet very slow? I would expect a relatively wealthy area like Old Havana to have better than average infrastructure.

As I said, this information may be incorrect -- and I hope it is.

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Update 1/1/2017

It's the new year and I have not heard more about the home ADSL trial in Havana. There were to be 2,000 trial accounts, but I've only seen a couple of news accounts. This Chinese news story cites two people as saying they are enthusiastically enjoying the home trial, but are uncertain they will be able to afford it once the free trial ends.

The Voice of America (VOA) posted a similar story about two sisters who share an apartment and consider the trial “a dream come true,” but they are also unsure if they will be able to afford to continue the service.

It is interesting to note the difference in tone between the Chinese report and the VOA story (which was based on a Reuters release). The Chinese are upbeat -- saying there are 4 million registered Internet users in the country, when only a few of them have access to the international Internet, and implying that there are 1,000 WiFi hotspots. (I say "implying" because their English translation is ungrammatical -- the original may have qualified the 1,000 as a planned target). The VOA story correctly states that there are currently 237 hotspots.

These few anecdotes say nothing about the performance, architecture or scope of the project and they shed no light on future home connectivity plans. This is the same sort of event PR journalism that we have seen surrounding Kcho's Cuban connectivity projects or Donald Trump's Sprint and Carrier job-creation claims.

Margarita Marquez, a participant in the home Internet trial (Reuters).

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Update 1.4.2017

I've heard from a friend that they have connected 697 trial homes so far. (They say the trial will eventually include 2,000 homes). I assume trial customers will receive two free months from the time they go online, so the entire trial will take some time to complete.

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Update 1/9/2017

The Havana Times has a story on the home Internet trial in Old Havana. The story is largely anecdotal, but there are a few details.

At one point, the story says there are 2,000 connected homes and at another 2,000 people. Some of the connections are to businesses and government offices -- not only homes. More confusion -- the story speaks of 15 people in a building being connected. Two thousand people would be consistent with the earlier report of 697 homes. .

The trial will end on February 28, so it sounds like everyone that will connect is connected. The speed is 256kbps (presumably download) and after February 28, residents will have the option of 256 or 512 kbps or 2mbps, but they do not know what the costs will be.

Speeds of 256kkps to 2mbps are very low using modern DSL equipment. That indicates that either backhaul from the Old Havana central office to the Internet is very slow and has to be conserved or that the wiring between the central office and the customer premises is in very bad condition or that the distances between the central office and users are great -- or it could be all of those. A darker thought is that they don't want people using the Internet very much.

Regardless, this speed range is even lower than that anticipated in a home connectivity plan that was leaked a year and a half ago and this trial is starting to feel like a sad publicity stunt. If Cuba rolls out this sort of home DSL, they will be where the US was in the 1990s.

As I have stated many times -- Cuba should not be recapitulating the evolution of Internet connectivity from dial-up, to DSL, to hybrid fiber-cable or fast DSL. They should leapfrog to next-generation technology and, more important, next-generation policy -- even if it means accepting (dreaded) direct foreign investment.

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Update 1/11/2017

I've been told that the home connectivity trial has reached only 840 out of 2,000 eligible homes and the signup rate has slowed significantly -- ten new accounts yesterday. I'm also told that the trial will end on February 28 regardless of when a user signs up.

Perhaps most of the eligible people felt it was not worth going through the hassle of applying and installing new equipment for two or fewer free months.

Others may not understand or want Internet access. In the early days of the Internet, we understood that one of the factors supporting success was a population of trained. demanding users and I was optimistic that the Youth Clubs might have developed that user base.

Cuba has a core of trained, demanding users -- bloggers, developers, young people at WiFi hotspots, etc., but the average Cuban might be indifferent to the Internet (if not to El Paquete).

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Update 1/12/2017

I've heard more rumors on the DSL rollout -- home DSL will soon be offered in Santa Clara and Granma.

My guess is that it will only be in the provincial capitals and only some neighborhoods. If the plan is to make DSL available to 50% of homes by 2020, they will be upgrading central offices that are in areas with high population density and phone wires that are in good condition.

The rumor I heard was that prices would be:

15 cuc 30 horas, 256 kb/s
30 cuc 30 horas, 512kb/s
45 cuc 30 horas, 1mb/s

The Web site Cibercuba says the prices will be approximately:

15 cuc 30 horas, 256 kb/s
50 cuc 30 horas, 512kb/s
70 cuc 30 horas, 1mb/s
115 cuc 30 horas, 2mb/s

Both may be wrong, but either one is a lot of money for slow service. Both agree that users will be required to recharge at least once per month.

A leaked ETECSA presentation on home Internet connectivity in Cuba

I don't criticize to knock the system down. On the contrary, I criticize to perfect the system.
Carlos Alberto Pérez

This post has taken several twists and turns.

I started out to write a post commenting on an ETECSA PowerPoint presentation on their plan for home Internet connectivity. The presentation had been leaked by Carlos Alberto Pérez on his blog Chiringa de Cuba on June 23. (The presentation is supported by another document leaked by Pérez, an Executive Summary of a National Strategy for the development of broadband connectivity infrastructure in Cuba -- English translation here). In addition to some analysis of the plan, I was going to discuss the role of Chinese equipment suppliers, predominantly Huawei.

Then, on June 25, ETECSA denied the validity of the leaked document, saying it was used only for training. They said the tentative prices shown were incorrect, but did not retract the substance of the presentation, which shows a plan to provide DSL service to some Cuban homes using Chinese equipment.

That denial was followed by the blocking of access to Pérez' blog, presumably because he had published the leaked document.

They subsequently restored access to the original post, but to be safe, I have put a copy here, and invite people to add comments to it. There is also a backup of the Strategy document here. (As they say, information wants to be free).

I will provide my reactions to the leaked document here and save the reflections on the Chinese role for a second post.

The presentation says ETECSA plans to roll out asymmetric (faster download than upload) DSL service using Chinese equipment in an unspecified number of central offices. As we see in the following leaked slide, they will use Huawei ME 60 gateways between the phone and IP networks and have ordered 15,000 TP Link TD 8840T modems for homes. I do not know, but it seems reasonable to guess that the digital multiplexers (DSLAMs) installed in the central offices will be from Huawei as well. (I'll get to the question marks later).

The following price slide was included in the presentation, but ETECSA has said this was only a place-holder for training purposes and I will take them at their word -- consider these prices only as possibilities:

These prices may be higher than we eventually see, but there will surely be a significant number of people who cannot afford a DSL connection so we can imagine people sharing accounts and a black market for reselling time.

The following slide differentiates between national and international access, so I presume that the actual prices will take that into account. That would be reasonable since most international access will be over congested satellite links. The slides say nothing about which, if any, international sites will be blocked.

The above slide also differentiates speed levels, times of day and days of the week. I suspect the actual pricing will take time and day into account, but that may or may not be the case for the different speeds that are shown. Varying infrastructure will cause speed differences regardless of price.

Before a home can receive DSL service, the equipment in the central office serving it must be upgraded and a relatively short, high quality phone line must run between the home and its central office. (That is one of the question marks in previous diagram).

Cuba reported 3,882,424 private homes (2012) and 939,500 residential phone lines. That means around 2.9 million homes would have to be wired before they could have Internet service. The presentation says they will give priority to homes that already have land lines and those belonging to the self-employed. (The former is obvious and the latter interesting).

Cuba reports having 688 central offices (2013), few of which contain DSL equipment. Most would have to be upgraded in order to provide DSL service.

Once connected, what will be the data transmission speed? The above slide shows asymmetric (down/up) connection speeds ranging from 128/64 to 8,192/768 kb/s. With DSL technology, transmission speed depends upon the distance of a home from its central office and the condition of the copper lines connecting them. These are always best effort numbers -- "up to" the stated speeds.

Let me give an example, I live Los Angeles and Google Maps says I am 1.1 mile from my central office. Verizon offers me two service levels: "high speed" DSL service is .5-1 mb/s and "enhanced" service is from 1.5-3 mb/s, for an extra $10 per month. To be fair, the copper in my neighborhood is 70 years old, but I doubt that many Cuban customers will be able to get 8,192 kb/s.

There is also a slide showing day/night and weekday/weekend traffic patterns. Judging from the y-axis, I am guessing that this is showing international traffic, which is heavy during week days. Before a user logs on, he or she will be able to measure their current connection speed before starting a session and using their hours.

The Internet connection is the second question mark in the previous diagram. What are the connection speeds between the central offices and the Internet? In the US, central offices are connected by high speed fiber, but I know little about Cuba. For example, in Havana, some or all central offices may be connected to a fiber backbone, but what of the link from there to the Internet? Havana is far from the undersea cable landing to the east, so I imagine those links are via congested satellites.

The bottom line is that this is an early step toward modern home connectivity using yesterday's technology and I hope Cubans are planning to leapfrog today's technology in the long run.

Well, that is a little tea reading from the leaked slides. It is too bad that the situation is so opaque that we have to guess about ETECSA and their plans and it is even worse that they seem to have blocked Pérez' blog. He is an asset, not a threat -- as he has stated "I don't criticize to knock the system down. On the contrary, I criticize to perfect the system."

I think the involvement of Chinese suppliers is more interesting than this leak, and I will take that up in a subsequent post.

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Update 6/29/3025

Ted Henken told me that the problem with accessing Chiringadecuba.com may not have been government blocking but expiration of the domain name, and it seems he was correct.

I did a whois lookup and it turns out the domain expiration date was 2015-06-26. I then checked at the registrar, Name.com, and saw that chiringadecuba.com is not available. It sounds like it may have expired, but they are giving Perez a grace period within which to re-activate it. Since he would not have a US credit card, there may be some difficulty with that.

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Update 6/29/2015

Chiringadecuba.com is online again and the expiration date has been extended till next year. My apologies to ETECSA for fearing that they may have blocked access.

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Update 1/27/2016

Huawei has tested their new technology, g.fast, in Panama. The technology trial ran for two months and they achieved speeds averaging 500 Mbps to download and 150 Mbps to upload, over existing copper lines.

I wonder if that is the technology they will be deploying in Cuba and how it will perform over Cuban infrastructure.

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Update 2/1/2016

ETECSA has announced a pilot home connectivity project in two Havana neighborhoods. The Associated Press report says Cubans in Old Havana will be able to "order service through fiber optic connections operated with Chinese telecom operator Huawei."

I would be surprised if they are talking about fiber to the premises -- hybrid fiber/copper is more likely. They also said they would being allowing cafes, bars and restaurants to begin ordering broadband service. No dates or prices were given.

I have also heard from a reader that some casas particulares are offering Internet connectivity in Havana, but I do not know how they are connected or at what speed and cost.

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Update 2/11/2016

The anti-Castro Internet advocacy group Foundation for Human Rights in Cuba has released a post suggesting that the choice of Huawei for the home-access pilot in Old Havana was motivated by Huawei's expertise in censorship and surveillance.

This Old Havana pilot deployment is quite limited, but Huawei is also the equipment vendor for forthcoming DSL home connectivity and Cuba's WiFi hotpots.

While the embargo was in effect, Huawei was a logical choice for Internet infrastructure in Cuba, but today, the embargo is not keeping the Cubans from considering offers from US and other competitors. Huawei's experience with and openness to censorship and surveillance may indeed offer them a competitive advantage in Cuba.

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Update 2/13/2016

I mentioned the assertion by The Foundation for Human Rights that experience with and an openness to surveillance and censorship gave Huawei a competitive advantage against US infrastructure providers to Doug Madory, but he disagreed, saying:

No not really. There are plenty of companies that offer products that can be used for surveillance and censorship -- see the usage of Blue Coat of Canada in Syria. Huawei is both inexpensive and not western. Those are probably bigger reasons.

At The Economist event (last December) I spoke with the country manager (of a US firm) for Cuba and he said he was in the room for one of the main presentations from Hauwei to ETECSA. He said Hauwei had brought a dozen engineers and had put a lot of work into their proposal for a telecom build-out. Hauwei wanted this deal very much.

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Update 10/27/2016

Norges Rodriguez, ‏@norges14, has pointed out that ETECSA began planning for home DSL in 2012. The following is a copy of cover letter of the memo initiating the planning process and you can download the entire memo here.

Reading it, I am struck by the bureaucracy . Bureaucracy and vested interests may be the biggest obstacles faced by the Cuban Internet. (This reminds me of their wacky list of occupations that are authorized for self-employment).

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Update 1/12/2017

The home-connectivity trial in Old Havana is underway and a friend tells me the DSL rollout will begin soon in Santa Clara and Granma.

My guess is that it will only be in the provincial capitals and only some neighborhoods. If ETECSA is implementing the plan foreshadowed in this post, they will be upgrading central offices that are in areas with high population density and phone wires that are in good condition.

My friend heard the prices would be:

15 cuc 30 horas, 256 kb/s
30 cuc 30 horas, 512kb/s
45 cuc 30 horas, 1mb/s

The Web site Cibercuba says the prices will be approximately:

15 cuc 30 horas, 256 kb/s
50 cuc 30 horas, 512kb/s
70 cuc 30 horas, 1mb/s
115 cuc 30 horas, 2mb/s

Both agree that users will be required to recharge at least once per month.

The good news is that more Cubans will be able to have Internet connectivity in their homes, but the bad news is that this is a lot of money for very slow service by today's standards.

Speeds of 256kkps to 2mbps are very slow using modern DSL equipment. That indicates that either backhaul from the central offices to the Internet is very slow and has to be conserved, the wiring between the central office and the customer premises is in very bad condition, or that the distances between the central office and users are great -- or it could be all of those. A darker thought is that they don't want people using the Internet very much.

Regardless, this speed range is even lower than that anticipated in the leaked document described above. If Cuba rolls out slow home DSL, they will be where the US was in the 1990s.

As I have stated many times -- Cuba should not be recapitulating the evolution of Internet connectivity from dial-up, to DSL, to hybrid fiber-cable or fast DSL to fiber to the premises. They should leapfrog to next-generation technology and, more important, next-generation policy -- even if it means accepting (dreaded) direct foreign investment.

Home connectivity is coming 4Q 2014 and there are 11,000 Nauta accounts

EFE reports that ETECSA plans to offer home Internet connectivity in the fourth quarter of 2014. They also hinted that some mobile connectivity may be offered at that time.

The connections will use DSL, not dial up, according to Jorge Legrá, Director of Strategic Programs ETECSA.

There was no mention of the costs of the home service or the places it would be available. It is clear that Cuba's poor domestic Internet infrastructure is hampering wider usage.

Legrá also discussed the new Nauta access centers, saying that ETECSA sold about 11,000 accounts in the first 15 days they were offered. He acknowledged that prices were high and would be adjusted over time.

Legrá also gave a glimpse of the surveillance in the centers -- users must present identity documents to get online and a session can be suspended for "any violation of the standards of ethical behavior that promotes the Cuban state."

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Update 7/11/2013

The New York Times has an article on the new access centers -- anecdotes and opinion as to what they foretell.